* Posts by ArildVollan

2 posts • joined 6 May 2019

Trump: Huawei ban will be lifted!
US Commerce Dept.: Yeah, about that…

ArildVollan

Can European authorities stand against the US 5G pressure?

It may have far-reaching consequences if Europe is forced to choose a side for 5G, with one of the great powers, the United States or China.

Prohibiting Huawei is one thing, but the US refuses all its allies to trade with Huawei has completely different consequences. For Trump does not limit his war to being alone against China. He wants everyone in his 5G war against Huawei and China. What happened at the G20 meeting is just part of the game from Trump.

Can European authorities stand against the US pressure?

Trump does it because he can. Everything is about his ego and the willingness to stand out, and so he has built his private business empire. He forgets, or perhaps is not interested in, what diplomacy really is about, "promoting his interests without using war." For the exercise of power we now witness results in a trade war where everyone is losing.

For Europe, Trumps demands will be a large increase in the cost of developing the 5G network. The reason is that 5G is a seamless transition from 4G. This necessarily means that all countries must disassemble all of today's Huawei 4G base stations. At an additional cost of about US $ 60,000 for each Huawei base station to be dismantled, - to set up a new 4G base station from Nokia or Ericsson.

According to Reuters, citing an analysis by the GSM operators' organization GSMA, a Huawei exclusion would have a potential additional cost of USdollar 62 billion. In addition, the development will be delayed throughout Europe, and that one may be forced to choose a quality-poorer solution.

For a small country like Norway (5 million inhabitants), it is estimated that the Norwegian additional cost is US $ 3.25 billion – just over NOK 28 billion. Norway currently has 14,000 Huawei base stations that must be removed, – to set up new Chinese-produced base stations from Ericsson or Nokia.

The irony is that boycotting Huawei will simply lead to employees and expertise leaving one Chinese company for another.

Even if Europe opts for Ericsson or Nokia, it will still use Chinese 5G products. All technology companies have one thing in common, much of their equipment is produced in Chinese factories.

Nokia and Ericsson have 12,000 employees in China for the production of the companies’ 5G networks. In addition, they have cooperation agreements with many Chinese factories for delivering components to the companies’ 5G networks.

American inspectors have probably not called in at Nokia Shanghai Bell or they would have realised that Nokia is, in a real sense, a Chinese company.

Most 5G components are produced in China anyway, so it is puzzling that the US insists Europe cannot use Huawei technology.

Ericsson has six R&D centers in China, with totally 5000 R&D engineers. 90% of Ericsson product involved five Chinese R&D center. Nanjing Ericsson Panda has developed into the world’s largest supply center for Ericsson. 40% of Ericsson’s global shipments come from here, and the localization rate of products is close to 100%.

For Nokia 7,000 employees in China focusing on customers, service, R&D, manufacturing and supply chain.

Nokia has six R&D innovation hubs and three manufacturing facilities. If Europe boycotts Huawei, Nokia has the plans ready: Adding 2500 new Chinese employees.

Why should Europe pay the costs, take the risks and gamble with their economic development and growth? Blindly following the US will have enormous consequences for European business. It will delay the development and deployment of artificial intelligence and the next generation of wireless services, just to support the US’ new-found policy of protectionism.

During the 2019 Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, US President Donald Trump tweeted that he wanted the US to win markets for its technology “through competition, not by blocking out currently more advanced technologies”. The president has pointed out that the US would not boycott Huawei if he got a good trade deal with China…

Huawei is being used in America’s trade – Please see her: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2176774/us-may-use-arrest-huawei-cfo-sabrina-meng-push-china-trade

The US Presidents words reveal what this is really all about – Huawei is being used as leverage in America’s trade war against China. The US is locked in a struggle over who gets to control two technologies: artificial intelligence and the next generation of wireless services, like 5G.

So far, the US has not managed to produce any evidence that Chinese 5G technology poses a security risk, and Huawei is now taking legal steps against the American administration as a result of the way it has been treated.

Read this article in SCMP: “Can Europe pay the price of following the US’ Huawei boycott?” – https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/3002164/price-europe-following-us-huawei-boycott-may

This is today’s simple political thesis from the United States: “To gather national strength, just create an enemy.”

In Europe, the Americans are doing this daily on many levels, from small businesses to countries and the continent itself. It is apparent from the media coverage last year that China has been designated “the great danger”.

How dare the Americans speak out against Chinese espionage, when they are reported to have tapped German ministers’ phones – and even Chancellor Angela Merkel’s?“ Please see here: Europe shouldn’t naively fall for US hype against China – https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3003287/why-europe-shouldnt-fall-american-hype-against-chinas-belt

Huawei, Huawei. Huawei, Huawei. Feeling hot, hot, hot: US threatens to cut UK from intel sharing over Chinese tech giant

ArildVollan

The 5G nett from Nokia and Ericsson is also Chinese

Boycotting Huawei will simply lead to employees and expertise leaving one Chinese company for another.

Even if Europe opts for Ericsson or Nokia, it will still use Chinese 5G products. All technology companies have one thing in common, much of their equipment is produced in Chinese factories.

By Arild Vollan, Managing Partner, Arctic Development

Nokia and Ericsson have 12,000 employees in China for the production of the companies' 5G networks. In addition, they have cooperation agreements with many Chinese factories for delivering components to the companies' 5G networks.

American inspectors have probably not called in at Nokia Shanghai Bell or they would have realised that Nokia is, in a real sense, a Chinese company. Most 5G components are produced in China anyway, so it is puzzling that the US insists Europe cannot use Huawei technology.

Ericsson has six R&D centers in China, with totally 5000 R&D engineers. 90% of Ericsson product involved five Chinese R&D center. Nanjing Ericsson Panda has developed into the world's largest supply center for Ericsson. 40% of Ericsson's global shipments come from here, and the localization rate of products is close to 100%.

For Nokia 7,000 employees in China focusing on customers, service, R&D, manufacturing and supply chain. Nokia has six R&D innovation hubs and three manufacturing facilities. If Europe boycotts Huawei, Nokia has the plans ready: Adding 2500 new Chinese employees.

The price for US’ Huawei boycott may be too high

The 5G network is an extension of 4G. If Huawei is not used, the existing 4G network must first be dismantled, and this would be a huge undertaking, costing enormous sums of money.

Norway currently has 14,000 Huawei base stations, and the cost of dismantling a Huawei 4G base station and replacing it with a Nokia or Ericsson base station is about NOK 600,000 (US$70,500) per base station.

Vodafone UK recently issued a strong warning: if the UK wants to stop using Huawei, the roll-out of 5G will be seriously delayed, at enormous cost to the UK. And ultimately it is British subscribers who will have to foot the bill for boycotting Huawei.

Why should Europe pay the costs, take the risks and gamble with their economic development and growth?

Blindly following the US will have enormous consequences for European business. It will delay the development and deployment of artificial intelligence and the next generation of wireless services, just to support the US’ new-found policy of protectionism.

During the 2019 Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, US President Donald Trump tweeted that he wanted the US to win markets for its technology “through competition, not by blocking out currently more advanced technologies”. The president has pointed out that the US would not boycott Huawei if he got a good trade deal with China…

Huawei is being used in America’s trade

His words reveal what this is really all about – Huawei is being used as leverage in America’s trade war against China.

The US is locked in a struggle over who gets to control two technologies: artificial intelligence and the next generation of wireless services, like 5G.

So far, the US has not managed to produce any evidence that Chinese 5G technology poses a security risk, and Huawei is now taking legal steps against the American administration as a result of the way it has been treated.

This is a matter of digital trust

The United States’ main argument against Huawei is that Chinese law obliges individuals and companies in China to cooperate with the Chinese state. But most countries have similar legal requirements, including the United States, which in certain circumstances imposes far-reaching obligations on its own citizens and companies. I have yet to see representatives of American companies in Europe being confronted in the media about how American law might force their European subsidiaries to break European laws to fulfil their obligations to the United States government.

It is strange, then, to cite Chinese law as the reason why the United States needs to ban Chinese 5G technology. But for American and Chinese companies alike this is a matter of digital trust; it must be taken seriously.

The United States may think Huawei an easy target, but according to Vodafone UK CTO Scott Petty, this is a dangerous path to tread. He reminds us that no company can ever prove they are 100% secure; there are risks everywhere. We ought rather to be discussing how to properly assess the risks entailed in using various companies. In Norway, for instance, Telenor’s 4G mobile network does not use Huawei components in their inner network. The mobile network is controlled by American technology; only the radio network uses Huawei. And the Americans have not yet managed to find and prove the existence of backdoors in Huawei products.

……

Arild Vollan is a Norwegian commentator and partner in Arctic Development. A company that is engaged in business development in the High North.

Read my article in SCMP: https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/3002164/price-europe-following-us-huawei-boycott-may

This is the US political thesis:

"To gather national strength, just create an enemy."

In Europe, the Americans are doing this daily on many levels, from small businesses to countries and the continent itself. It is apparent from the media coverage last year that China has been designated “the great danger”. Please see here: https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3003287/why-europe-shouldnt-fall-american-hype-against-chinas-belt

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR WEEKLY TECH NEWSLETTER

Biting the hand that feeds IT © 1998–2019