* Posts by Casapaz

7 posts • joined 18 Oct 2016

Basic income after automation? That’s not how capitalism works

Casapaz

Retirement of boomers in economy

All of the retirees defiantly puts a huge strain on the economy. Not because they have stopped working, but because many will spend a lot less money because they don't need to, and their income is limited and fixed, plus they might have to help their children which quite possibly still live in their basement

Many of the retirees leave companies and no younger person will replace them. The job has already been automated or contracted out, or the trainee that may replace them makes much less than them. Of course there will be a "talent shortage" when we can't find someone with 20 yrs experience anymore and companies will bemoan that they can't find qualified canidates pushing to allow them to hire foreign talent rather than training people.

Contrary to what most of the press has been spouting, we won't need millions of more workers to take care of the consumption habits of the retirees. Most of them aren't needing to buy houses, cars, pay for education, etc. Of course health care is where retirees are going to spend more, but until there is a massive wage inflation among nurses and caregivers, I don't think that is a problem.

The reason japan is feeling the pinch is because they have the same problems with the job market and not enough higher paying jobs which leaves less taxes for the government.

What Japan needs to do is implement a UBI so that employers can't threaten peoples survival with 80hr workweeks or no job and no money.

What has actually happened is that China has finally taken most of the manufacturing jobs, and if they haven't then automation probably has. Governments are afraid of increasing the debt. The whole cycle has started breaking down because the people that actually want to buy what is being produced don't have a job to pay for it.

Casapaz

Marginal job market.

Okay here is an idea:

Why don't we actually find out people's marginal propensity to work rather than their marginal propensity to survive?Implement UBI and this would happen.

If there is a low demand for workers but a high demand for jobs we see what the marginal propensity to survive is: minimum wage.

Those idiot politicians that say UBI disincentivises work or that there are jobs, just not desirable ones, or that welfare or unemployment insurance is an incentive to work just don't get it and should take a class in human psychology.

Casapaz

How basic income would change the economy

So, one of the main reasons against basic income is it's "unaffordable" and if the government spent all that money on its citizens the government would have to raise taxes dampening the economy.

There are two ways this plays out: the government raises taxes on the wealthy and some of the upper middle incomes which causes them to look elsewhere in the world to live. "But the rich would leave"...and less taxes from them etc.

Yes the pound would take a short term hit but the economy would recover fast because of increased spending power of all the citizens plus tourism, plus weaker currency means greater competitiveness for manufacturing.

The government impements UBI but doesn't raise taxes enough to cover for it. The pound would take a hit but the rich wouldn't flee as much. At least the "stimulus money" is directed where it will actually be spent.

If the UBI amount is modest amount initially, it might not cause a shock and we could just begin to forget what income insecurity and poverty are.

In either scenario the outcome seems seems better than the current situation of increasing poverty, income inequality, and the government trying to make up for the loss in GDP by getting more rich immigrants or not rich immigrants that the government thinks will boost GDP.

The welfare trap and income tested benefits disincentives working. Basically the government plus the rich sold us out and expect we keep paying for it with the majority of our measly paying jobs. (Because money is what you pay, value is what you give when you're working )

Casapaz

Re: Errrm

The best reason for implementing basic income is so that we can abolish minimum wage and manufacturing shoes can actually be a competitive business here. Why should a business that makes shoes stay in the country if they can ship the jobs to Asia where they can make shoes for much less than the minimum wage? (This is just an example, but you get the idea. And I don't believe we should abolish min wage yet)

Sorry, communisim plus capitalism won. Look at China. Democracy is failing because people still think that UBI is some sort of dirty welfare scheme that gives everyone a free pass to retire tommorow.

Casapaz

Re: Universal Basic Income

I totally agree,

But, don't say that too loudly otherwise people might start to think of welfare as a positive thing rather than some dirty poverty tax that we all have to pay for.

Casapaz

Re: Universal Basic Income

Actually, I don't think most people would stop working because of UBI. Most people would work more on things that they want to do and get done. (and i'm not talking about arts/poetry/childcare etc)

Many more people could re-train their skills and work because suddenly there would be a huge increase in availible jobs because most of the Lower and middle classes could afford to buy stuff and spend money without fear of becoming destitute and poor with no job.

Casapaz

Automation is a symtom

Automation wouldn't be the problem as the author states. BUT, combined with income inequality, outsourcing, and basic supply/demand economics for labour there is a real problem with automation.

Stagnant wages, and income inequality means more and more can't continue to afford a middle class lifestyle. In addition, companies are not investing more because less are buying. Negative interest rates anyone?

So, basic income is a far better solution to the current system than trying to re-create more jobs or letting more and more of the economy fall into the poverty trap. Our stupid system is set up to hate welfare because most of us aren't eligible and pay taxes.

Basic income would re-incentiveize working, small business, and increase the value of labour in the economy. Our system doesn't value labour as much anymore because people are working for capitalist business to make profit for someone instead of working for all our citizens.

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