"He persuaded a risk-averse middle class that he'd do a less bad job than the other candidates"
This is laughable.
Plainly, statements made by Trump do not persuade risk-averse people that he is a safe pair of hands, to paraphrase:
"Global warming is a scam by the Chinese government to damage Western economies"
"Yeah, I just grab 'em by the pussy"
Edit: had to add "ISIS was started by Obama and Clinton", Jesus Fucking Christ, the level of gall and the stupidity of the people believing that, or even supporting someone who says that.
The list is almost endless and a parade of unedifying garbage, almost all False (except the Pussy stuff, he knows his pussy stuff).
Politico rated his completely truthful statements at less than 5%, with almost 70% false or partly false.
If he engendered trust with those statements, that says more about False News and the general intelligence of voters rather than truth itself.
The risk-averse view would be to vote for Hillary Clinton, who has been doing the job for a long time.
The real reasons (apart from more lying and Hatchet Jobs against Mrs Clinton) are more to do with sections of the vote NOT going to her. Trump got about the same overall vote as Romney last time but she got five Million fewer votes than Obama last time. The loss of lots of African American votes, the 'young' and so on.
It is a sad fact that she lost rather than he won.
Although, it has to be said, the small effect caused by Fake News, avid media coverage of his outrages (giving him free publicity - of which, apparently, there is no bad kind) would have been enough to give him the slim margin in the required states.
All in all shameful, Brexit-like shenanigans with a post-vote realisation of the terrible mistake that has been made.
Both sides of the pond will see the hit as time goes on, we will get by probably, but we will be less cohesive, more divided and poorer (100 Billion in our case), of that I remain sure, along with the Chancellor it seems.