Posts by Phil O'Sophical

Re: Scary

We had to explain to a friend what the test card was

See: http://www.meldrum.co.uk/mhp/testcard/

Re: Alien Parasite

It's like a kind of alien parasite (or symbiote, depending on your point of view)

It started out as a symbiote, but has evolved into a parasite. And like many parasites, it is evolving further into something that will ultimately kill its hosts.

Re: @John Brown ... Vogon

In fact, the pro-Brext parties gained vote share, and the pro-Leave ones lost it.

Oops. I mean "Pro-Remain ones lost it", of course, sorry.

Re: Vogon

I could quite easily see a substantial fraction of the Remain Conservative party defecting to the Lib Dems (or creating a new centre-right party that the Lib Dems then merge with) which would then attract some of the more moderate Labour Remainers.

You mean like the way the SDP was created? "Go back to your constituencies, and prepare for government!". Yes, well, that was a roaring success.

Re: Vogon

I'm interested to know why a new referendum, after the terms of exit are more clearly known, is not acceptable?

Well, my opinion (for what it's worth) is that it wouldn't ncessarily solve anything. If it produced a 75% vote either way it might be useful, but there's little chance of that. Another 52% for Leave wouldn't change anything, 52% vote for Remain would just lead to requests for another referendum next year. That sort of volte-face every year would be a disastrous situation, eventually we'd have an election where the party that promised NOT to have another referendum would win!

I don't subscribe to the idea that once a referendum has been had, then the issue is settled for all time,

"all time", no, but how long do you wait? It obviously varies with the situation. You can reasonably shop in Tesco today, and swap to Sainsbury tomorrow, but you aren't going to change, say, your broadband or phone provider every week, it would cost a fortune and be far too disruptive. It's 25 years since we were pushed into the EU without a vote, does every 25 years seem like a reasonable gap? Every 10? 50?

By and large the people who lose want another vote as soon as they think they'll win, which is understandable but hardly practical.

Re: @John Brown ... Vogon

No, we didn't have an election. we have a referendum which is basically an opinion poll.

We did have an election, which despite the most monumentally stupid manifesto plans Theresa May still managed (just) to win. In fact, the pro-Brext parties gained vote share, and the pro-Leave ones lost it.

Re: Vogon

I am of the opinion that leaders of a democracy should be able to make decisions for the best of the country, even if that decision is unpopular.

All democratic governments are free to do that. In the full knowledge that they will eventually face an election, of course.

If a company CEO thinks that sweeping changes to how the business is to be run need to be made, do they go around asking all the cleaners, drivers, machinists, typists, secretaries and so forth what their opinions are?

Some do, through unions or works councils. More often they'll ask the shareholders.

Re: Vogon

Stop bleating out ukip propaganda please - I know people who voted leave and without exception it was based on either some crap they were told by a bloke in the pub, or some equally stupid crap peddled by the leave campaign.

But an opinion based on "I know people" is by its very nature self-selecting. It represents the people in your social circle, who are likely to share your overall outlook, even if they disagree on a precise direction.

You can't possibly extrapolate that to cover the views of the far larger group of people that you don't know

Re: make up your minds

but if the pattern is not clear to you at this point, you will never allow yourself to see it.

I think you're missing the key part about this being a negotiation. Of course you go in with a big wishlist of your ideal situation, and then you negotiate to some mutually-satisfactory solution.

Unfortunately we have two problems here

1) The only solutiuons acceptable to the EU are "remain under our contrrol" or "fuck off with nothing, and pay us to do so"

2) Theresa May is a completely incompetent negoitiator who doesn't believe in what she's trying to negoitiate anyway, and prevents her other negotiators from doing their job.

Some of the items in your list are exaggerated, others are reasonable positions for two partners to agree on, without necessarily agreeing to be part of a political union. Unfortunately they are much harder to swallow when tied to the process of leaving such a union.

Re: make up your minds

The EU doesn't show any sign, and it is not in its interests, to treat the UK with contempt

It's not a question of contempt, but punishment. If any country leaves the EU and succeeds, it demonstrates that the EU is not necessary, and obviously the EU doesn't want that. It is very much in the EU's interests to ensure that Brexit fails, and from that point of view they will not negotiate fairly, what would be "win-win" on a level playing field is effectively a "lose" for them.

but it must be getting increasingly difficult not to have that attitude given the blustering chaotic clown show the UK Govt.(TM) has been putting on to date,

Absolutely. May is so keen to have a Brexit without actually leaving that she has given the EU negotiators the impression that they can bully us into staying, so they are even less likely to try "real" negotiations.

Re: "Where is the evidence to suggest that would happen?"

Erm, which century? The Stormont Government only came into existence in 1922, as a response to the "troubles".

The term "the troubles" has been used for multiple periods, I think for most of us today it would be the period from 1968 to the mid-ninetlies, perhaps for some the earlier "troubles' in the 1950s. I doubt if anyone alive today remembers the pre-1922 period.

Re: "Where is the evidence to suggest that would happen?"

I thought that the Good Friday Agreement led to the Provisional IRA putting their arms beyond use. My understanding is that free movement throughout Ireland and Northern Ireland (i.e. no hard border) was one of the key provisions that persuaded them.

That's a somewhat naive interpretation. IRA support was aready falling by the end of the 80's, even the people who supported their alleged aims (a United Ireland) were disgusted by their tactics. When the US started to treat them as terrorists instead of freedom fightrs (under a Democrat president, no less) they had to cut their losses. Sinn Fein have been attached to the "ballot box & armalite" strategy since at least the early 80s, and Adams realized it was time to put the armalites away for a while. The look on his face as he agreed to the Good Friday agreement was a picture, like hed been sucking lemons, but he had little choice.

As for free movement, the UK and Ireland have had a common travel area with freedom of residence, work, voting, etc. since the Republic broke away. As a child I remember the pre-troubles border posts, but apart from the need to have a special sticker for the car to show that all tax was apid they were irrelevant for ordinary folks. Less so perhaps for business, but they certainly didn't process every vehicle and even today there are still customs agents who perform spot checks on commercial vehicles.

But if the shit hits the fan, it will have been entirely forseeable as to why.

They've rarely needed an excuse, and they will no doubt find one if they want to, but the current generation who grew up with the recentTroubles are much less likely to let it slide back, especially now that the world as a whole is much more aware of terrorism and it's excuses.

Re: I was pro-remain, but this really is "Project Fear" at work.

Mostly nasty angry scowling old gammons who are unhappy with they way life has turned out for them, want something to blame so they can avoid the truth that their problems are all self-inflicted. There are a lot of these people.

True, but to characterize all brexiteers as being like that really just shows that you'e in that category of prejudice yourself. Many of us are educated people, living and working in interational environments, and well-able toi understand the economic pros and cons of the EU. Many remainers, as shown by comments here, clearly have no understanding of what the EU actually does, what we have without it, and what it actually makes possible.

Because all remainers are concerned about is avoiding a chronic economic storm.

That I'll grant you, far too many people want to stay in their comfort zone, keep their heads down, and do what they're told. Historically that's always been more visible in mainland Europe than in the UK, cozy mediocrity is always an appealing option when the alernative is hard work.

And make no mistake, post-Brexit there will be a lot of hard work to rebuild. The big difference is that some of us can see far enough ahead to understand that the hard work could be worthwhile, even if remainer schadenfreude and EU vindictiveness makes it harder than it needs to be. Others just prefer to sit back and downvote anyone who actually wants to work for improvements.

Re: make up your minds

1. The EU will not allow the dismantling of their rules and structures to coddle a country that decided to leave.

No one but remainers thinks that anyone is trying to dictate terms to the EU. What leavers would like is a reasonable agreement that works for both sides, but the EU will never agree to that. It's the EU that expects to dictate terms, and they believe that they can still do so. If not, they'll accept a solution which is poor for them, as long as it hurts the UK more. They cannot, and will not, tolerate anyone breaking away from their empire successfully. Never mind the remarks about "having their cake and eating it ", the EU wants the cake monopoly.

Re: "Where is the evidence to suggest that would happen?"

The NI "Troubles" had their roots in the civil rights excesses practiced by the Stormont government in the 50's and 60's, which predated even the common market, never mind the EU. Trying to link that to possible civil disturbance over having customs posts on a border is a bit of a stretch.

Re: eh?

1/ Hard Brexit: Civil unrest as food and gas become scarce

You really haven't a clue how world trade and WTO rules work, do you? Why on earth should any of that happen?

No wonder people get scared of Leave when there's such blatant nonsensical remainer FUD around. Project FEAR is alive and well, it seems.

Re: BFH

. He was a far better slimy-lying-git-in-chief than The Old Grey May-or or Tony B.Liar

True, unlike Bliar Call-me-Dave at least delivered the referendum he'd promised, even if he was dumb enough to think his negotiated "peace in our time" letter-waving would be enough to make people vote to stay in the EU.

Whatever he's being paid to speak, it's too much. Maybe we could have a whip-round (or send a whip round?) and pay him to shut up?

Re: Brexiteers jump ship

You're making the same incorrect assumption as your friend Juncker, that the hardline Brexiteers are abandoning Brexit, and leaving it to the new "Brexit Means Remain"™[1] policy.

They aren't, they're abandoning the good ship Theresa, and readying the torpedoes. If they don't sink her, a commons vote will. They really should have dumped the stupid woman after the election, it will hurt a lot more now but she will go. My money is on a new PM before Parliament returns after the summer recess.

[1]TM = Theresa May

Re: Kim or Ken?

No way that poor chap should've been fired.

Walk into an empty room and smell burning, you hit the emergency button. Walk into a room where people are working, and see that they haven't done it, it's just common sense to ask "why not" before taking extreme action.

Re: Bunch of Naysayers

The removal of the hated EU blue channel and increased prominence of the plucky British Red and Green channels will be a highlight, I'm sure.

On the contrary, the Blue channel will be retained (to match the passports) and those other troublesome channels will be closed off.

Re: Fgs

that 'Brexit' has nothing to do with leaving the EU in a considered, well supported manner involving comprehensive planning and with clear and substantive evidence as to why leaving will be so much better than remaining

Ah, you mean the same planning and evidence that we had when the politicians signed us up to the EU in the first place in 1992? "Let's build a political union, it'll be soooo good ".

They generally seem to feel that there is far more to be gained by constructive membership

They've been singing that song for 25 years, and what did we get? An EU that is ever-more autocratic and suffering more and more under the rise of anti-EU populism, yet the only solution the "constructive membership" can come up with is "we need MORE EUROPE, that will fix everything".

The leaders of the EU are deluded autocrats living in denial in their own little world, dreaming of running their European Empire, and completely unable to see that the ordinary people are less and less happy about it. There's nothing constructive in that behaviour.

Re: Forget the politicians

You are omitting a key detail: the UK are leaving the EU, so the day after - unless T.May gets agreeement, UK passport holders (Strictly) won't be able to use the EU passport holders channel

I wouldn't bet on that. Those channels are usually labelled "EU, EEA, CH, CD" and it would be trivial to add UK to that. The UK gets many visitors from the EU and it would clearly be better to maintain a similar channel at the UK border for their convenience, so reciprocal arrangements with the EU would be logical. After all, it's exactly the same passport check, you can still join the "All passports" channel with an EU passport, I frequently do if the queue is shorter. I would also expect that people travelling on British Islands passports (Channel Islands, IOM) which are not EU passports, still use the EU channel today without problems.

Of course, if the EU decides to be petty and force UK citizens into the "other" lane, as Brexit punishment, the UK may have to play tit-for-tat.

Re: Forget the politicians

There is at least a good chance we will need a Visa to enter Schengen.

Funny how no-one holds the Schengen plans for a visa (required even for non-Schengen EU members) up as a demonstration of xenophobia. It seems that only anti-EU people can be guilty of that.

I strongly suspect some groups of Brits will land on the day after leaving to suddenly be asked for papers they didn't previously need and be escorted back to the UK.

If it's anything like the electronic visa systems used by other countries today (US, Canada, India, etc) it will be detected before you get on your plane/boat. When you're denied entry it's the airline or ferry company which is on the hook for getting you back home, so they generally like to check before you board.

Re: Lets just get on with it . . . .

And as an EU citizen he has the automatic right to one.

A right that will be deleted for UK citizens and something that he has campaigned for.

He won't have a right to it, but that doesn't mean he can't get one post Brexit, he just has to ask. Like non-EU citizens who want to come to France do.

It's a common remainer misconception that being in the EU is the only thing that makes living in another EU country possible. It doesn't, it simply makes it easier. Post-Brexit, any UK citizen will still be perfectly entitled to ask for a residence permit in any EU country. The only change will be that the country can say "no'. And why should countries not be able to say "no"?

Re: HS2 and the Galileo replacement

Hundreds of millions of pounds of EU money has been spent

Maybe so, but for every £1 of "EU" money spent in the UK, we paid £1.50 to the EU, since the UK is a net contributor.

Countries like Ireland can reasonably claim that they got money from the EU, but the UK cannot.

Re: Fgs

That's an amazingly big IF! A credible plan from the UK government?

True, although I'd hope that industry with a financial stake in the game would provide direction.

They have demonstrated time and time again they are incapable of a credible plan for going to buy a Mars bar at the Spar on the corner.

Their usual plan for that is "send someone to do it, we'll pay". Works for me.

And with new technology? That would be the wheel, I assume?

Galileo was designed over 10 years ago, and is already many years late. A lot has moved on in space technology since then, as the boys in Surrey can tell you. Add that to launches via Space-X instead of Ariane and you have plenty of scope for new and cheaper technology. Stop being so glass-half-empty!

Re: Fgs

the benefit of the EU is number of members giving a more moderating effect so get less "extreme" policies due to (semi) consensus system

Or to put it another way, no-one has actual control so we just get mediocrity and stagnation, since the only thing people can agree on is doing what is "mostly harmless". I don't see that as a positive.

Re: Fgs

no you believe in a benevolent boris,fartage,cleggy and maybot

Taking the issue seriously, I see.

sold on a bed of fucking lies

And you think the EU isn't? Wake up, smell the coffee.

Re: Fgs

You don't see people from Glasgow doing their weekly shop in Bournemouth Tesco

No, they do it in Amazon. "the added time & costs of transport make a lot of possible trade unrealistic in practise." - Jeff Bezos seems to disagree.

Re: Fgs

in reality the vast majority of 'Remainers' harbour no such delusions, they are simply aghast at the stupidity of 'Brexit'.

Fair enough. The majority of Brexiteers harbour no delusions about the future of the EU, we're simply aghast at the stupidity of Remain.

Re: Fgs

I assume the Brexit theory is that all that will be replaced and more from the RoTW. Even if it is (a dubious proposition)

Why so? There are 27 other countries in the EU, most smaller than the UK, but 170+ in the RoTW. While many of those 170 are tiny with no money there are plenty which are big enough to be good trade partners.

You're right, there is a lot we don't know about how things will play out when we're outside the EU, but frankly I'll take my chances on that. I think that staying in the EU and hoping everything will come up roses is an even more dubious proposition, and we have historical evidence to rely on for that.

I do find it saddening that so many people refuse to even consider that there could be a better future, and are happy to leave everything in the hands of someone else. It's almost a religious attitude, "God (or the EU) will provide, we should be grateful for what we get".

Sorry, but I don't believe in a benevolent God, nor in a benevolent EU.

Re: Fgs

Why do we need to make one?

We don't, but if we can put together a credible plan showing that it's possible to do so, with newer technology, in about the same timeframe as Galileo, it's a useful bargaining position. Something along the lines of "you can be petty and exclude us, but it's pointless, we can do it ourselves. Wouldn't it make more sense to work together?".

Re: Fgs

The UK could lose 100 here, 14,000 there at Airbus, 100,000 jobs supporting the 14,000

"could" being the word here. The UK is the 8th largest manufacturing economy in the world, it's sad to see people who think that they only way we can create jobs is by waiting from crumbs from the EU's table. With pessimism like that at home we'll be screwed with or without Brexit.