* Posts by mathew42

718 publicly visible posts • joined 29 Sep 2011

Woeful NBN services attract ACCC's attention

mathew42
FAIL

Re: You may be suprised

> Unlimited plans aren't the source of congestion.

If a world without constraints that is the case, but we are in a real world.

> Data limits are a construct designed to take the focus off the fact they the ISPs, Wholesalers, NBN, etc do not have enough bandwidth to supply their clients needs and to provide a way to charge clients more for using their connections.

This might surprise you, but it actually costs money to run an ISP. $100 including GST is a common pricing for an unlimited 100Mbps plan. NBNCo charge $38 AVC and ~$14/Mbps in CVC.(excluding GST) Considering just the NBNCo Wholesale charges, purchasing more than 5Mbps of CVC (inc. GST) will cause the RSP to lose money. We know the majority of RSPs allocate only 1Mbps per user. I very much doubt that you are willing to pay double or more for better performance. If you were then you would move to an RSP with quotas.

Quotas provide a very fair and reasonable way of controlling congestion. If you are downloading large amounts of data then you pay more to cover the increase in RSP costs. Off-peak quotas provide an incentive to schedule downloads to a quieter time, reducing the RSP's costs. If you download more than average then other customers of the RSP are subsiding you. If you download less, then you are subsidising the heavy downloaders who are causing poor performance in the weeknds.

Other utilities tend to charge for usage. The exception to this is mobile phone plans, but the terms and conditions are interesting. Consider amaysim which 'Unreasonable Use' states Leaving a call connection open for purposes unrelated to making a call, or while in an unattended state for a prolonged period of time eg. as a baby monitor. Are you sure you want to head down that path?

mathew42
FAIL

Re: You may be suprised

While the ACCC decision has had significant impact, RSPs choosing to offer unlimited plans is the significant cause of congestion. The tragedy of the commons has been known since the 1800s.

Your mate on Dodo is simply lucky, but that could change very quickly if a few heavy users join his PoI. A couple of short posts naming the PoI and claiming good performance should achieve this..

You're designing an internet fridge. Should you go for fat HTML or a Qt-pie for your UI?

mathew42
Flame

Re: You're designing an internet fridge.

IoT is a great way to take an appliance that should last a minimum of 10 years and make it a security risk and obsolescent in 12 months.

TVs are another example. Spend $6000 on a nice OLED TV running Android and it is obsolete before you purchase it, while the screen should be good for 10+ years. If I could buy a TV with an upgradeble Android component, I would pay a small premium. In a couple of years you can overcharge me again for the Android component, but at least I won't have to replace the TV.

nbn™ to use G.fast in late 2018, firstly in commercial premises

mathew42
FAIL

Why didn't you point this out when Labor announced the NBN with speed tiers and created a financial model which relied on ARPU rising steeply to above $100 for targets to be met?

Labor's financial model was based on increased data usage driving CVC revenue growth pushing up ARPU and slowly discounting AVC. The Liberals have cut CVC pricing to $14 reducing CVC revenue growth which curtails NBN's ability to discount AVC. Smart plan if you are building a FTTN network and want to suppress demand for faster speeds.

The rumoured uncongested 50Mbps plan will put further upward pressure on the cost of faster plans.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: Never do this

If we assume Murdoch is concerned about people streaming cutting into his profits and accept Netflix's recommendation of 5Mbps for HD and 25Mbps for 4K HD then FTTN will has just a big an impact.

Joint Committee on the NBN splits, as National Party member sides with opposition

mathew42
FAIL

NBN or Telstra responsible for download speeds?

In Not happy with the NBN? You're not alone. The number of complaints has jumped 160pc there is this quote:

Dr Kay said they got better speeds from the old ADSL than with the NBN fibre to the premises. "Our download speeds can get down to 2.2 megabits a second and uploads speeds can be zero. That happens fairly regularly — it might even be daily," he said. He said every six months the whole connection dropped out, which was not just frustrating but also life threatening.

At one point, Dr Kay said his patients were calling Telstra to try and reach him, and the telco requested he give them a mobile number to reach him on. "We said no, why don't you fix the NBN? So we actually have the service we contract you to provide."

It will be interesting to see some more facts, but the first assumption has to be that erratic speeds are an RSP (Telstra?) issue.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: >80% connecting at 25Mbps or slower

> But in your delusional mind thats not a digital divide lol.

I have never said it is not a digital divide. The rich will always have more money to spend. The point I'm making is that >80% of Australians have selected 25Mbps, so that should be considered the baseline. The question I'm asking you is why are you so special that you deserve the benefits of a government funded network that you deny to >80%. Are you special enough to be in the 1% connected at 1Gbps in 2026? I doubt it, because if you were, you wouldn't be complaining about the cost of technology change.

> Lol no you claim it was going down.

The percentage on 100Mbps dropped sharply from the first connections to stabilise at 14%. This steep drop under Labor's governance is easily explained by the early adopters selecting faster speeds and late adopters choosing slower speeds.

Internet Connection Speed Recommendations from Netflix are 5Mbps for HD & 25Mbps for UHD. Now you might think 25Mbps indicates those on 25Mbps will need to upgrade, however I expect most will bauk at the cost increases to deliver 25Mbps during peak hour. 25Mbps of CVC at $14Mbps = $350.

> Another spin and liie with nothing to back it up with

I suggest reading NBN: ISP Congestion and speed tiers which explains why when RSPs purchase inadequate CVC resulting in congestion there is little value in purchasing faster speeds. Simply calculating NBNCo Wholesale costs, RSPs cannot sell the current plans at a profit and provdie a congestion free network.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: >80% connecting at 25Mbps or slower

> First NBN fibre extension comes in: $150,000

Date of article: 16-Aug-2012 (pre FTTN, while Labor in power)

Context: Person requested to change from Satellite to FTTP and was quoted $150,000.

One source in the industry suggested lack of infrastructure could require NBN Co to spend up to $120,000 to build new pit-and-pipe over the 1.3 kilometre distance in a built-up area.

The article you should have linked to is Few users go through with expensive NBN tech switches

Date: 31-Mar-2017

Quote: Bill Morrow’s assertions at estimates last week that the costs normally ranged from “sub-$1000 to tens of thousands of dollars” are broadly accurate. The average cost per premises, based on these new figures, is around $7395.

Based on this average cost is likely to be less than 6 months on 1Gbps.

The first time you provide a reference it is dated prior to LNP being elected and is a complaint about Labor's plan.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: >80% connecting at 25Mbps or slower

> Lol your selfiness in not caring that most Australians are now denied any benefits and any further speed increases.

Greater than 80% of Australians are having exactly the same experience on FTTN, HFC & FTTP because they've selected 25Mbps or slower.

Based speed tier take up for past 4 years, ~4% of Australians have been disadvantaged (unable to purchase 100Mbps connection) by FTTN.

These two numbers should help you and other fibre fanbois appreciate the gap between your world view and the rest of Australia. If you are in doubt crunching the numbers in the NBNCo Corporate Plans / ACCC reports will confirm the calculations or you could look at previous articles where I've explained the calculations in depth..

mathew42
FAIL

Re: >80% connecting at 25Mbps or slower

> Lol your selfiness in not caring that most Australians are now denied any benefits and any further speed increases.

Your position is that a priviliged few (<14%) should enjoy speeds on a goverment network that through pricing structures are denied to others. Further that less than 1% in 2026 should enjoy 1Gbps. I cannot see how a network where <14% achieve the minimum speed to meet the aims of the government program fair. A network where <1% in 2026 will have world class speeds is even less fair.

My simple position is that if FTTN adequately meets the demands of >80% then that is all the government is required to provide. Those who require more have two choices move to an FTTP location or technology change. Based on speed tier percentages and trends for the last four years the impact is about 4% of the population.

Alternatively they could campaign for an abolition of speed tiers, but that would have required criticising Labor's FTTP plan back in 2009-2010 which didn't occur, because fibre fanbois were worried if the plan was critqued, holes would emerge and it would disappear in a puff of smoke. Instead you are now reaping the rewards of your selfishness.

> What would you call $150k choice for the same speeds?

Move evidence of your irrational fibre fanboi logic by picking an extreme unreferenced number. Most suggest FTTN to FTTP will cost between $5,000 to $15,000. Less than a kitchen renovation and less than stamp duty. Likely to be less than 12 months on 1Gbps FTTP plan.

> Has fttp % changed in the last 4 years? But please try the spin again.

The percentage on 100Mbps on FTTP has barely changed in the last 4 years. You should know this, but have this belief system that demand is sitting there waiting to explode.

> What was ADSL traction 5 or 10 years after it came out?

The only significant move in speed in ADSL was triggered by Internode installing DSLAMs into exchanges and offering uncapped speeds. TPG with FTTB are somewhat similar offering either 12Mbps or 100Mbps for $10 extra.

Sadly, you cannot distinguish between your personal desire and the reality of the general population. Unfortunately unlimited data plans have contributed to the lack of demand for faster speeds because faster plans mean more data can be downloaded adding to the cost, whereas faster plans on the same quota have little impact on the network.

> So when 65% can get 50Mbps or faster. But then they as i have pointed out to you before are most likely using fttb figure in the average.

Again yet more unsubstansiated fibre fanboi wishful thinking. FTTB is an entirely separte product to FTTN, and listed as such in the reports that I've previously pointed you towards. Of course I appreciate that as a fibre fanboi you find reality challenging to your world view.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: >80% connecting at 25Mbps or slower

Please accept FTTP has zero traction in the general population because Labor added speed tiers to the network, meaning that >80% are selecting speeds easily provided by FTTN. Your selfishness in not caring that most Australians were going to be denied the benefits of the NBN enabled LNP to replace FTTP with HFC & FTTN because it met the requirements of >80%.

> Ahh so given someone a choice of speeds that has different cost is a digital divide with a small difference in cost. But then shows how delusional you really are

If the cost is a small amount then why are only 14% and shrinking selecting 100Mbps?

> again you try to make a delusional claim without backing up your claims with any facts as usual just the lie and spin as always lol

I've repeatedly given you references to the NBNCo Corporate Plan and ACCC NBN Wholesale Market Indicators Report but I doubt you have even read these documents.

> So since the rollout out stopped in 2013 and fttp figures hasnt changed much at all we apparently know lol best spin i have seen from you.

If it is spin then I suggest that you provide the references and calculations to substantiate your claims.

> Delusional is when you have 65% on user picking the maximum or faster then what the network

Delusional is suggesting everyone on FTTN (<40% of network) will have network issues on 25Mbps or faster, when NBNCo have reported the average speed down is 67.7Mbps and up is 30.63Mbps. This will improve when profiles are changed after migration from ADSL to FTTN is complete.

Fibre fanboi campaigns since 2012 have achieved nothing outside the small percentage willing to pay for fast speeds, because the general population have correctly judged your attitude as self-interest, not community interest.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: >80% connecting at 25Mbps or slower

> So apparently supply speeds of 100Mbps and giving consumers choice on hiw fast they want to pay for is some how in your delusional frame of mind creating a digital divide.

There is a key distinction between 'want' and 'can afford'. Most people in Australia would enjoy driving a luxury European car, but very few can afford it. Labor's speed tiers have as Labor expected, created a digital divide of >80% on 25Mbps or slower and a shrinking percentage (14%) on 100Mbps.

Based on your argument the availability of technology change removes the issue, because if you want to pay for it you can :-).

> So as i have shown you with very simple maths that more peple on higher teirs under fttp generates more revune. But alas you have chosen to ignore that simple fact and claim its CVC cost is the revune stream lol. Considering your delisional in think cvc cost is supplying most of the revenue when it only supplies 30%

You can massage numbers to come up with the desired numbers. What doesn't change and you have consistently ignored is that Labor explicitly stated in the NBNCo Corporate Plan that their stated intention was for NBNCo to derive an increasing portion of revenue from CVC because they in my opinion correctly forecast that increased use of streaming technologies would lead to higher demand. The great advantage of this is that data growth is organic (quota exceeded), where as moving up a speed tier requires a decision by the customer.

> The fact your compare mtm figures vs fttp figures which hasnt change much at all since 2013 who knows what it would be now.

Umm... We do know what it would be today, because NBNCo / ACCC release quarterly figures broken down by technology which show no growth in those prepared to pay for faster speeds.

> So it only doubles once how many times does FTTP doubles our country speed?

Thanks to Labor's speed tiers resulting in >80% on 25Mbps or slower the NBN hasn't delivered the benefits that 1Gbps could have delivered. As you are well aware if speed tiers were removed on the FTTN network it would have a higher average speed than FTTP with Labor's speed tiers.

I don't dispute that 1Gbps could have delivered significant economic and social benefits, however not when Labor intended for <1% to have 1Gbps in 2026.

Delusional are fibre fanbois believing that Labor was building a 1Gbps network for them, unless of course they were in the elite 1%. But then if you were in the elite 1% technology change wouldn't be a significant expense. Delusional is ignoring the evidence that >80% of Australians have decided to select 25Mbps or slower.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: >80% connecting at 25Mbps or slower

> Wrong again myrepublic is offering it in Wollongong but please keep trying

I'm well aware that MyRepublic are running an invitation only marketing exercise for 100 people which is selling 1Gbps connections at a significant discount to the NBNCo AVC wholesale price.

This in no way is a national service or one that can be ordered today. This is the distinction between fibre fanboi blinded by shiney light and reality.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: HFC Horrible Fucking Crap Network

> totally incapable of supplying need (best guess norm 860Mbps download and 40Mbps

The challenge is that >80% are ordering 25Mbps or slower and RSPs are pushing unlimited data plans but purchasing insufficient CVC so I doubt most people will notice.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: >80% connecting at 25Mbps or slower

> Why can they order a service Mathew. You been banging on thats its been a viable since 2013.

Incorrect.

I've stated that NBNCo have offered 1Gbps to RSPs since December 2013, but since you cannot order a service from an RSP. Given the advantage that the first mover will have in attracting early adopters with deep wallets, the only conclusion I can draw is that RSPs cannot make the numbers work.

This is hardly surprising when the minimum investment for a national network is 2Gbps CVC priced at $14/Mbps for 121 PoIs is $3.4 million and on top of that you need to add the RSP's internal costs it is not hard to understand why.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: >80% connecting at 25Mbps or slower

> hasnt bern labor fttp for 4 years

My point is that Labor established the NBNCo monopoly and defined the financial model which included speed tiers. My argument is that speed tiers (as predicted by Labor) have created a digital divide and enabled MTM

The significant changes made by LNP have been lower CVC quicker than Labor planned and build FTTN / HFC (irrelevant to the > 80% ordering 25Mbps or slower)

> As per previous dissucion your sulking at the 25Mbps mark becuase you vacant use 50% on 12/1 Lol

Still in your delusional world where >80% on 25Mbps or slower and <14% on 100Mbps is a better outcome than Labor's plan for 50% on 12Mbps, 30% on 100Mbps and ~3% on 250Mbps?

> So that other countries that are already supply 1Gbps speeds we are meant to compete with. It's a luxury is it.

You know full well that I support abolishing speed tiers, which would have made 1Gbps available for everyone. A NBN would have made it much harder for LNP to build FTTN because the gap between 10-20 fold gap between FTTN & 1Gbps FTTP is significant, whereas with >80% selecting 25Mbps or slower it is only a small group (<4%) of spoilt rich who are impacted.

Labor's plan as outlined in the NBNCo Corporate Plan was for less than 1% to have 1Gbps in 2026. This hardly makes us competitive. In fact in the 2010 Corporate Plan is a chart showing how Labor planned for us to fall further behind over time.

> But then as you love to lie and spin as usual

So quoting from Labor's NBNCo Corporate Plan is considered lying and spin?

I suggest that Labor's response to Google Fibre's 1/1Gbps direct fibre build by increasing the NBN top speed from 100Mbps to 1Gbps just prior to the 2010 election and omitting to state their expectation that it would be so expensive that <1% of Australians would be connected at 1Gbps in 2026 is a good example of spin.

My suggestion at the time and since is that Labor should have responded by offering Google $20 billion to build Google Fibre here. By now we might have had the network built and a Google Lab experimenting with Loon for remote access.

> fanboy model

I've never been a fan of FTTN / HFC. I've merely pointed out that Labor's decisions in setting up the NBN have had a significantly bigger impact. Secondly, the technology change has impact on only about 4%, .who are mostly rich.

mathew42

Re: FTTP, reality?

There are many reasons to move to NZ including escaping the apocalypse, but it is a little cold.

What I'm curious about is what decisions NZ made that has made their project successful whereas Australia has been a disaster. I suspect NZ's decision to structurally separate the monopoly telco whereas Australia chose to establish NBNCo as a new monopoly.

mathew42
FAIL

>80% connecting at 25Mbps or slower

> Mathew can or can not fttp deliver 1Gbps. Can or can not fttn deliver 1 Gbps

it depends on how you define 'deliver'.

  • If you mean for those who have an FTTP connection today can they order a 1Gbps service, then the answer is no.
  • If you mean deliver based on Labor's expectations in the NBNCo Corproate Plan then that would be less than 1% in 2026, which is still in the future.
  • If you mean will a 1Gbps FTTP connection be affordable for the average person, I suggest that is unlikely given that >80% are currently connecting at 25Mbps or slower.
  • If you mean does FTTN present a barrier to those who can afford 1Gbps, then arguably the answer is still no, because 1Gbps plans will be very expensive.
  • If you meant in a hypothetical scenario based on political spin, then yes FTTP can deliver 1Gbps and in the lab 255TBs, but that would require replacing the NBN fibre.

As per our previous discussion you are still sulking that a network with speed tiers has resulted in >80% connecting at 25Mbps or slower and provided the basis for the position that speeds faster than 25Mbps are a luxury for which people should make the appropriate sacrifice instead of expecting a middle class welfare handout.

mathew42

So that makes you unusual in that 14% and shrinking are ordering 100Mbps with little variation between FTTN, HFC & FTTP.

I think on FTTN due to the variance on performance, NBNCo should remove speed tiers and just offer the service at the 12Mbps price so that no one is disadvantaged. Of course this would mean that the average speed on FTTN would be faster than the average speed on FTTP.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: Privatise the profits, Socialise the costs

The Labor Party who setup NBNCo created it as a monopoly with the stated intention of privatisation as soon as the risk build was complete.

mathew42

Throwing money out the window for a service nowhere near what we were supposed to get (old 1gb/s). I need to get up to a next gen vr business, 2 tb/s line for development, not 100mb/s.

Labor expected that with FTTP, <1% would have 1Gbps in 2026, and you are expecting 2Tbps? Sure VR is a cool technology, but if you want it now, I suggest locating yourself next to a peering point.

For a bit of perspective, Square Kilometer Array has a desire for hundreds of Gigabits per second and you want 2tb/s?

Finally don't forget that >80% of Australians are opting for 25Mbps or slower.

mathew42
Unhappy

Tasmania weekly earnings lowest = digital divide

Nonetheless, Tasmania ranks the lowest on Telstra's Digital Inclusion index compared to other States.

6302.0 - Average Weekly Earnings, Australia, May 2017 states that Tasmania has the lowest average weekly earnings, therefore it is hardly surprising that Tasmania is lower.

Labor decision to add speed tiers to the NBN has resulted in >80% connecting at 25Mbps or slower and created a digital divide. Building more FTTC or FTTP won't change that digital divide.

Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull hints at surveillance expansion

mathew42

In related news SAPOL have been given live access to Adelaide Oval cameras. This has been labelled an anti-terror measure. Reportedly there are 400 cameras in the grounds.

If you are visiting for the Ashes, please remember to smile for the cameras.

Internet-wide security update put on hold over fears 60 million people would be kicked offline

mathew42
Childcatcher

A curated list of servers with outdated software?

The organization is planning to publish a full list of resolvers that listed having only the 2010 KSK key, and then ask the internet community to help identify where they are and figure out what the problem is, and how to update them.

Did anyone else read this and think that these resolvers are likely to be running out of date software with known issues? I expect certain sections of the internet community will be very quick in identifying the servers and updating them, but I'm not sure their actions will be considered 'helpful'.

nbn™ sweetens the deal for business and its own bottom line

mathew42
FAIL

CVC revenue cuts require a rise in AVC revenue

NBNCo revenue is primarily sourced from AVC & CVC charges. Discounting of the CVC price means that AVC prices cannot be discounted. The effect of this is to push down the demand for faster speeds because prices are higher. Top notch strategy if your plan is to depress the demand for faster speeds.

Labor's plan was always for CVC revenue to increase as a portion of total NBNCo revenue.

Australia commits to establish space agency with no budget, plan, name, deadline …

mathew42

Re: It's a distraction, emmmm bad polls

This is more about the state government trying to save itself at the March polls.

Now is a good time to be selling something to the South Australian Government if it reduces the chance of negative publicity (e.g. Telsa installing batteries).

mathew42

Re: Easy... this isn't about space.

Classic example of governments and the general populace ignoring scientists.

Goyder's Line was produced by the Surveyor-General by observation of flora and it has proven remarkably accurate, although indications are that climate change is moving it south.

mathew42
Mushroom

Re: Space port

Woomera is being used to test scramjets.

There is 2000km of sparsely populated land to the east of Woomera so it is an ideal location for launching reusable rockets. There is a very low risk of strong storms and the neighbours are a long distance away.

Alexa and her kind let the disabled or illiterate make the web work

mathew42
Pint

I think it would be great to take it to the next level for those people who can only communicate through boards with pictures on them. Imagine a large tablet with a camera that followed eye movements. Being digital would mean that it could highlight the selection and provide context sensitive options.

Voice recognition for someone with a speech impairment would be challenging, but if liberating if it could be made to work.

Want to keep in contact with friends and family without having to sell your personal data?

mathew42
Pint

Reminds me of chumby

This reminds me of the chumby.

nbn™ adds premises to FTTC, HFC, slims down FTTN build

mathew42
FAIL

Re: FTTN average speed faster than FTTP with Labor speed tiers

My position remains unchanged that your fanboi selfishness has resulted in >80% on 25 Mbps or slower not receiving the benefits of the NBN that Labor used to justify the project.

The reality is that if you are complaining about the cost of technology change then odds are you couldn't afford speeds faster than 100Mbps anyway.

> The minum speed was 100Mbps and was delivering this. But as you keep failing to understand it also gave the option for cheaper slower speeds for people who either don't need or didn't want to currently pay for the faster speeds.

As a response to Google Fibre, Labor upped the speed to 1Gbps. If 100Mbps is your benchmark then only FTTN is not delivering that consistently.

Slower speeds (<100Mbps) deliver none of the benefits that Labor used to justify building the NBN.

You seem to be ignoring the fact that way too many people find Labor's speed tiers unaffordable. The NBNCo Corporate Plan discusses affordabilty in detail.

> the taxpayer have to cover the cost of the next upgrade in 10 years time

Firstly, Labor's estimates on up-take suggest that those on the slowest speeds <25Mbps are unlikely to migrate to higher speeds. Moving or technolgy change are the options for those who can justify spending money for 1Gbps.

Secondly, as per Labor's plan, in five years time the NBN is likely to have been privatised, so it won't be a tax payer expense.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: FTTN average speed faster than FTTP with Labor speed tiers

> Again rambling about a non existing digital divide of supplying 100mbps connection to everyone

Your argument appears to be that as long as a service exists then it doesn't matter that >80% have decided that it is too expensive. My counter argument is that technology change means that 100Mbps (and faster) is available as long as you don't consider it too expensive.

The logical conclusion to your point of view appears to be that fibre is the only solution and that even if >80% connected at 1Mbps as long as the special few could access the network at 100Mbps this is acceptable.

The alternative is that you develop an argument for the minimum speed on the network and insist that the government provides this. It appears that you and most others are content as long as you personally are able to afford your desired speed.

It should be noted that in the NBNCo Corporate Plan (2010) Labor defined the recommended minimum speed and then promptly ignored it.

mathew42
FAIL

> If we had it your way most people would get a dirt road and would have to pay to tar it.

The problem is that it isn't most people it is a very small number: four percent!

While I would prefer 1Gbps fibre to everyone, I'm also a realist. If >80% are choosing 25Mbps or slower and Labor's expectation was that this wouldn't change dramatically, then I accept that as the community standard this is all the government needs to build. If you look you'll find posts from me to when the NBNCo Corporate Plan was first delivered making the same point: that Labor expects speed tiers to create a digital divide.

The fact that some vocal fibre fanbois are crying over the outcome of their own selfishness makes it easier to stump up for technology change and/or cost of moving to a suburb with FTTP.

mathew42
FAIL

> Lol mathew will be in less than ten years when we require the faster speeds with out having to do a homeloan to get a FOD.

What are you basing that 10 years on? Labor predicted <1% would have 1Gbps in 2026!

As I've mentioned previously, technology change is the difference between the price of two business class (how the 1% tend to fly) and economy tickets to London.

> Thank good we dont build roads to your standards.

Roads are an interesting metaphor. Labor's pricing model is the equivalent of building a road system where >80% travel at 25Km/h or slower, 14% travel at 100Km and an empty lanes sit there for the mythical 1Gbps speeds.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: FTTN average speed faster than FTTP with Labor speed tiers

> Becuase we both know it can or your doing is trying to misleading to make a point as usual.

RSPs have been able to sell 1Gbps plans since December 2013, but they've chosen not to sell faster than 100Mbps. >80% of customers on FTTP have chosen to select 25Mbps or slower. Clearly there is large gap between what is therorically possible and reailty. Since the only difference between the speed tiers is price, in the absence of other evidence the principle of Occam's razor suggests that people are choosing speeds based on their financial circumstances.

Labor designed a financial model for the NBN which as Labor expected in each revision of the NBNCo Corporate Plan to create a digital divide.

The reason FTTN is being rolled out is that the IT community were selfishly prepared to accept the creation of a digital divide, expecting they would be on the right side of it.

mathew42
Holmes

Re: The NBN: Such bollocks

> something that should so obviously be bipartisan and for the people's benefit

It is a valid point, but unfortunately if you critique a plan based on it's merits, supporters respond with fear.

Labor's plan had a number of flaws and contradictions (e.g speed tiers versus minimum requirements for the applications Labor was promoting; overbuilding HFC first, growth in ARPU, etc.) but debate was stifled by fibre fanbois. At this point there remains a significant gap between what customers are prepared to pay for (25Mbps or slower) and what the power users expect everyone should have..

The promotion of renewable energy and clsoure of coal power stations has resulted in a state wide blackout, load shedding and a significant risk of blackouts during summer. Only after the blackouts is action being taken to make the necessary changes to the grid (e.g .frequency stability) to accommodate the differences between a few large generators with high inertia and a many small generators with low intertia. Listening to engineers coold have avoided this situations, but the Greenies degegrated anyone who dared to critique renewable energy, even if a solution to the identified issue was available.

It should be noted that the unusually quick action by the South Austrlaian government might be related to the upcoming state election on 17 March 2018. potential electoral backlash if widespread blackouts occur over summer.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: FTTN average speed faster than FTTP with Labor speed tiers

> Apparently the average of FTTN is 78Mbps but only 60% of FTTN users can get faster than 50Mbps

If those unsourced numbers are correct, then it means that the 40% with lines delivering < 50Mbps must be closer to the 50Mbps speed to result in a 78Mbps average speed.

> laiming FTTP cant even deliver 100Mbps now.

The full quote points out that the cause is the speed tiers which mean only a small shrinking minority (14%) are accessing 100Mbps speeds.

Of course you continue to consider yourself one of the special ones who will connect at 100Mbps and in doing so, provide evidence of your lack of care for the other 86% and fail to understand that 1Gbps will be reserved for an even more special group (the top 1%).

mathew42
FAIL

FTTN average speed faster than FTTP with Labor speed tiers

> You mislead in your statements claiming fttn is faster than fttp.

The point of observing that if speed tiers were removed from FTTN the average connection speed would be faster than FTTP is to point out how Labor's decision to implement speed tiers put a ball and chain around the performance of the NBN, resulting the FTTP network being unable to deliver the recommended 100Mbps speeds for the applications that Labor championed.

I refer you to Exhibit 9.26 Broadband Speed Requirements Vary for Different Applications in the NBNCo Corporate Plan (2010). The source of that information was the Cambridge Strategic Management Group.

mathew42
FAIL

CVC revenue to rise pushing up ARPU

> cvc price would fall under labor fttp

Agreed, but what you clearly don't realise is that while the unit price falls, that the total quantity rises sharply, so total revenue increases. Very clever Labor spin: CVC pricing will fall, but omit to mention that data usage is required to rise much more quickly, so that ARPU can rise.

> even though i shown you cvc does not come close to making the same revune as avc

You quote numbers from another fibre fanboi and consider this credible? Do you think that just once you could quote from a primary source that is publically available?

I refer you to Exhibit 9.3 Revenue Components of tne NBNCo Corporate Plan, where it clearly shows that CVC as a percentage of revenue starts very small and quickly grows. I refer you to the previous quotes from the NBNCo Corporate Plan that show the intent to grow revenue via CVC.

Note that I consider the plan to grow revenue via CVC one of the better ideas by Labor, because it reduces the digital divide and matches the charging model for other types of infrastructure.

mathew42
Facepalm

Re: Feed the nbn my icon.

> He MTM olf % claim like 30% on 100mbps by 2021. Where AVC revenue of $1.4B vs its CVC of just $0.8B

Cutting the CVC revenue is a brilliant strategic move by the LNP. It menas that NBNco will be unable to cut AVC pricing because of the CVC revenue shortfall. This supresses demand for higher speed tiers, justifying the government's position that demand for higher speeds doesn't exist.

The reason I say brilliant is that the fibre fanbois complaining that FTTN can't deliver 1Gbps, fully support the cuts in CVC which make higher speed tiers more expensive. I suspect some LNP strategists occasionally have a chuckle over the gulibility of fibre fanbois.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: Feed the nbn my icon.

> Would you agree that using tech in your fanboi model that cant deliver the same speed to everyone is creating a digital divide

I'm not a fan of the FTTN deployment. I'm merely pointing out that due to Labor's decision to implement speed tiers the fibre fanbois are over-reacting.

Technology change offers the ability for anyone to upgrade their FTTN connection. Labor's expectations as recorded in the NBNCo Corporate Plan that <1% woudl have 1Gbps in 2026 make it very clear that only the rich could afford 1Gbps connections. For the top 1% in Australia, the cost of technology change means premium economy seats for their European Holiday instead of business class seats, assuming that they cannot arrange for the cost to be paid for by work.

Today, I could walk into the Tesla dealer and order a car, but only if I have the means to pay for it. Labor's speed tiers have created exactly the same situation. Theoretically, I could have a 1Gbps connection but the reality is that <14% are willing to pay the cost for 100Mbps and RSPs have determined demand doesn't exist for faster connections at a price that will be profitable.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: Feed the nbn my icon.

> Btw cvc price [falls] under labor as demand rises but then some make a profit on it acording to you

If you missed the word falls then the first half of your statement is correct, however there is a catch. When you read the NBNCo Corporate Plan (2016) on page 67 you will find a chart, if you study the chart two facts become clear:

  • Starts at $20Mbps/Month when the average data usage is 30GB/Month and falls to $8Mbps/Month when the average data usage is 540GB/month.
  • Price falls by 2.5 times, while the average data usage grows by 18 times = growth in revenue from CVC of 720% when accounting for price falls.
Further on in the document is a chart showing the growth in revenue from CVC.

On page 118 of the NBNCo Corporate Plan (2010) this statement appears:

Despite the movement of residential consumers up the speed curve shown in Exhibit 9.12, the growth in AVC (PIR) ARPU is relatively modest. This reflects the small price differential between AVC tiers, and the decline in prices for the higher tiers. However, the consequence of more End-Users moving to higher speed tiers is reflected in the significant rise in the contribution of the CVC to overall ARPU, as increased speed drives increased usage.

It is this statement that lead me to my position that if Labor had been bolder in their plan, they could have eliminated speed tiers and by their own assertion this would have resulted in higher usage, resulting in higher CVC revenue. Sadly, Labor chose the medicore timid option of speed tiers and data charges leading to the current situation.

Statements like this make me think that your knowledge of Labor's NBN plan barely extends beyond the headline '1Gbps FTTP' and fails to grasp all the compromises Labor made.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: Feed the nbn my icon.

> Consider this if speed tiers were removed on FTTN, the average speed would be higher than CURRENT SPEED TEIR AVERAGE OF FTTP.

The current speed tiers have barely changed in 4 years and RSPs are not offering plans faster than 100Mbps. Labor expected that those on the lower speed tiers wouldn't migrate up and with the current market demand for unlimited plans RSPs have no incentive to offer faster plans.

> Wow the is copper fan boi again I didn't know labor was doing FOD wow

The digital divide was created by Labor's speed tiers and was expected by Labor as documented in the NBNCo Corporate Plan.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: Feed the nbn my icon.

> So if nbn wasn't making any money from the 12Mbps of $24 it would be making $3 from 25mbps connection and so on. So using current uptake figures

Wrong assumption. NBNCo is loosing money on AVC. It is CVC where Labor intended for NBNCo to make it's profit. If you drop the speed tiers, then more people connect because it is cheapr and everybody downloads more because data arrives more quickly and at higher quality (e.g. 4K instead of 720i).

mathew42
Meh

Re: Why so hung about speed tiers

It is a philosophical view point basied on my experiences of ADSL when Telstra was the only provider and the options were 256/64Kbps, 512/128Kbps or 1500/256Kbps. Most people opted for the slower speeds and this limited even VoIP without careful QoS configuration.

Secondly, Labor's justification for the NBN was services like eHealth & eLearning, but as the 2010 Corporate Plan points out the minimum recommended speed for this is 100Mbps. Currently in Australia on the fixed NBN <14% have these speeds.

Thirdly, the FTTP network is capable of delivering 1Gbps, but the pricing model puts those speeds out of reach of all but the very wealthy. As outlined by Labor the NBN should source the majority of it's revenue from usage not connection fees, as this is the area of greatest growth.

> We have speed tiers in NZ UFB, and it hasn't seemed to have damaged the system in the way you describe.

The Kiwis have a very different model to that established by Labor, including structural separation of the monopoly provider instead of creating a new monopoly. I've not looked at NZ in depth, because first people need to acknowledge the mistakes Labor made in the pricing model and then we can look at solutions.

> those who want it can get 1000/500 for not a huge increase in the wholesale price from Chorus

The wholesale price difference in Australia between 100Mbps ($38) and 1Gbps ($150) is $112, which some would consider reasonable. However since NBNCo made plans faster than 100Mbps available in December 2013 not a single RSP has made plans faster than 100Mbps available at retail. MyRepublic have run a marketing stunt for 1Gbps limited to 100 customers but that is it.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: Feed the nbn my icon.

> You know planing for the future not for what people are choising now.

The problem with that argument is that Labor were very clear that they expected people on the lower speed tiers to not migrate up to higher speeds. In fact we find the demand for speed less than what Labor anticipated.

Greater than 80% of the community has determined that 25Mbps is an acceptable speed. I do not see you presenting a single argument to change this.

mathew42
FAIL

> People who are in the areas that already got connected with FTTN have been having lots of issues with loss of synch low synch speeds & poor throughput due to the poor condition of the old copper.

According to this article, only 6% of FTTN connections are less than <25Mbps. Interestingly 32% are > 75Mbps.

I'd suggest that congestion caused by ISPs not purchasing sufficient CVC to sell unlimited plans.

If you have a problem with FTTN, first mount a convincing argument why the minimum speed should be 100Mbps. This would then exclude FTTN as an option.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: Feed the nbn my icon.

> No the reason you the copper fan boy switchef was becuase more people where choosing faster speefs than labor expected

The only speed tier that is higher is 25Mbps. The 100Mbps is half what Labor predicted and 250Mbps connections are tiny.

Consider this if speed tiers were removed on FTTN, the average speed would be higher than FTTP. Does that not demonstrate how badly Labor bungled the artificial NBNCo financial model.

> But then you copper fanboi supportof trying to blame lanor for the copper mess is humorous

The difference between the two plans will have little impact on end-users. >80% aren't ordering speeds greater than 25Mbps, so they will be fine. The small percentage requiring 100Mbps or faster have options: move or technology change. Considering the fact that technology change will almost certainly be less than stamp duty, staying put is an option.

I blame the selfish fibre fanbois who belieived Labor's promise of 1Gbps, failed to read that it would be for <1% in 2026. I blame the selfish fibre fanbois who don't care that only 14% and shrinking are on the minimum recommended speed for the applications (eHealth, eLearning, etc.) that Labor used as justification for the NBN.

If you are complaining about technology change bieng unaffordable then sadly you are destined to be on the poor side of the digital divide created by Labor's plan, which is appropriate judgement for your selfishness.

mathew42
FAIL

Re: Feed the nbn my icon.

> Cant understand why customers had to be more down speed tiers because fttn cant deliver said speeds lol.

Except that the percentage on each speed tier has barely changed since the additoin of FTTN, FTTB & HFC to the network. Sure a few people have been impacted, but as I've explained previously this is 14% on 100Mbps * 40% on FTTN * 70% estimated final connection rate = 4% of population. This 4% have options like moving or technology chnage.

> Tell me again why there isnt 50% on 12/1 right now cant use Telstra as an excuse.

The reason I switched to using the 25Mbps figure is that Labor planned for the 25 & 50Mbps speed tiers to shrink in size to a neglible amount. That hasn't happened. Secondly it highlights more succinctly the digitial divide that Labor's policy has created.

How about you explain why >80% on 25Mbps or slower is a great achievement for a 1Gbps capable network? As you do, remember that it is the fibre fanboi support of Labor's speed tiers that has lead to FTTN.

Google puts the last coat of polish on Chrome 61

mathew42
Flame

> It may sound scary, but is it more scary than having to download an exe to update your drivers or an app that will update them automatically over insecure http?

YES. At least when I download an exe, I can verify the website belongs to the manufactuer. With this feature I could visit a random website and find that I've been owned. The only uncertainty in my mind is will I need to wait for DEF CON 26 for the first public exploits. Don't forget that Web Bluetooth is also included in this.

Currently I use several browsers and tend to reserve one for important stuff (online banking, email, etc.). With this development, I'm seriously considering devoting a VM to general browsing. Updates are a hassle, but one that is becoming more bearable.