* Posts by mathew42

507 posts • joined 29 Sep 2011

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nbn™ needs copper to build FTTN: another 15,000 km of it

mathew42
FAIL

Re: Again the original promise of FTTH is reninged

> By the time the NBN is completed, there will be companies like Google et al

It would have been far cheaper for Labor to give Google $20 billion back in 2010 to build a wholesale 1Gbps network across Australia. We would have ended up with a service far superior to Labor's FTTP. However ideology prevented Labor from negotiating with the private sector. Instead they have recreated a government telecommunications monopoly with all of the associated issues.

> Regardless of political parties in power, we were sold FTTH - which would have made Australians able to proceed in business and personal ventures at best available speed.

Sorry to disappoint you, but with FTTH (FTTP) Labo never intended for Australians to have the best speed, instead they added speed tiers to the pricing model resulting in 85% of Australians connecting at 25Mbps or slower.

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mathew42
FAIL

> about labor 1% Gbps target by 2026 but then ignore from those same figures of 50% on 12Mbps. How many on 12Mbps btw.

So you think the outcome of Labor's plan being 85% on 25Mbps or slower on a 1Gbps capable network is a great achievement?

Labor's plan was for 10% to be on 250Mbps by now, yet you cannot buy that plan retail.

Labor's plan was for 40% to be on 100Mbps or faster by now.

The reason that only 33% are 12Mbps is because Telstra don't offer 12Mbps. I suggest that if Telstra offered 12Mbps that a significant percentage of their customers would switch from 25Mbps to 12Mbps.

> How is MTM upgrade going to be paid for less than the cost of doing it right the first time.

The point I continue to make is that a network being built by the government should benefit a small number of Australians. Based on Labor's plan there is no evidence that the overwhelming majority will pay for the 100Mbps speeds required to deliver the benefits promised by Labor. Therefore it is reasonable to argue that hose who desire faster speeds but do not care about their neighbour's speeds should expect to pay. The ironic part of this is it is the fibre fanbois who appear not to have the means to pay and will therefore suffer the consequences of their selfishness.

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mathew42

> Our internet is bulk billed through a single FTTP connection to the comms room in our retirement village. It was planned that way, so that we could all have an adequate and inexpensive service.

This makes sense.

> On the very rare occasion that we are all running NetFlix etc at the same time, the wholesaler throttles the site to ~140 x 18 Mbps or roughly 2,500 Mbps (2.5 Gbps).

NBNCo don't provide a wholesale service above 1Gbps. It wouldn't surprise me if you have a single 100Mbps or possibly 250Mbps service. You might have a second FTTP connection for VoIP. I very much doubt you have 2.5Gbps as the wholesale price for CVC is $17.50/Mbps = $17,500 for 1Gbps

If it is an NBNCo FTTP connection it is just a likely that congestion at the RSP's PoI is causing the throttling in the evening as your neghbours arrive home from work.

> My bill is typically $23), and $12 for Netflix to our $33 giving a total monthly fee of ~$68, which I think is pretty reasonable.

Yes, I agree this is a great deal for a 100Mbps connection. You should find that the other residents join that monthly costs per resident should fall, however if data usage grows prices may need to rise.

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mathew42
FAIL

> Yet Mathew your fan boy support of fttn has 1% on 1Gbps by 2020 when most of the nexteork is only design for 25Mbps

Please provide evidence that I support FTTN. What I have done is pointed out that for 85% of Australians on 25Mbps or slower the technology has zero impact. I actively argued against FTTN when Labor promoted it as their plan in 2007 election campaign.

For the top 1%, ~$10,000 tax deductible cost of FoD is not a significant cost. It is significantly less than stamp duty costs for moving or a kitchen renovation.

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mathew42
FAIL

> As usual your numbers and conclusions are ridiculous Mathew...it is the reason you have been named troll on most every Forum I have read.

These are not my numbers. They are numbers from Labor's NBNCo Corporate Plans or numbers published by NBNCo.

> That need has been expected to be at least 1Gbps by 2020...this is expected by every modern country in the world except us, and even quite a few 3rd world countries.

I don't disagree, even Labor's first corporate plan explained very clearly that all the eHealth, eEducation, etc. services required a minimum of 100Mbps.

> We are fast becoming irrelevant in the Global economy, and this MTM is one of the biggest causes...

This I dispute. If Labor had designed FTTP without speed tiers then Australia would have become a place of global innovation because tech companies would know that 90% would have 1Gbps connections. Instead due to a simple choice that Labor made to impose speed tiers we have ended up wtih 85% choosing 25Mbps or slower.

Consider this: if speed tiers were removed from FTTN, 85% would experience a faster connection than 85% choosing 25Mbps or slower on FTTP. How crazy is that?

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mathew42
FAIL

> Yes, I am sure. We have fibre to our central comms room (which also houses all of the VIOP traffic) and VDSL2 from the comms room to each of our homes (typically 30-150 meters) so far we have about 140 homes connected.

Note you have FTTN technology, which Labor explicitly excluded based on an ideological basis. The short distance makes it close to FTTB.

In an early thread you mentioned $33/home. This is $5 below NBNCo wholesale pricing for 100Mbps, which suggests that a third party has installed the service.

After Telstra thwarted Labor's FTTN plan, the face saving 1Gbps FTTP plan was a great idea. However the implementation was failure. Labor predicted that in 2026 <1% would have 1Gbps. Today we see 85% on 25Mbps or slower as a direct result of Labor choosing to add speed tiers to the NBN.

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mathew42
FAIL

> FWIW I am politically agnostic and support the best programs not the cheapest or most expedient eg, an independent voter.

What points to you use to define a program building a 1Gbps FTTP network which planned for < 1% to be connected at 1Gbps in 2026 and has resulted in 85% connecting at 25Mbps or slower as the best program?

The sad reality is that FTTN is delivering the same performance as FTTP for 85% of people by choice. In fact if NBN removed speed tiers from FTTN it would result in 85% of people of FTTN having better performance than the FTTP.

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mathew42
FAIL

Are you sure you have an NBN connection? Wholesale cost for 100/40Mbps is $38/month.

Only 14% (and continuing to fall) of customers are selecting 100Mbps. 85% are on 25Mbps or slower. The reason for that is Labor's decision to build an NBN with speed tiers. I don't consider building a 1Gbps network and then throttling it to 25Mbps for 85% of people to be a successful outcome. In fact it is exactly this outcome that enabled the Coalition to justify FTTN.

As you shown with speeds dropping to 18Mbps for people who are only at home in the evenings, peak time congestion means buying faster plans delivers little benefit. With the current unlimited data plans that are all the rage, if NBNCo dropped AVC speed tiers it would cause a surge in CVC demand enabling pricing to fall. Win-Win.

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mathew42
Unhappy

> (And if it turns out that the number of chair-warmers (as opposed to workers) isn't small, well that's an even bigger scandal.)

Cue scandal as the workforce is significantly larger than expected. Most of the actual work by NBNCo is contracted out.

This is exactly what you expect from a governemnt monopoly created by Labor.

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Payroll-for-contractors company named at centre of AU$165m tax scam scheme

mathew42

Re: Not surprised...

> You cannot run businesses for free

You can run a business on commissions. Plutus were including payments for health insurance, workers compensation, car leases, etc. It is not unreasonable to assume that with technology automating the process, costs could be kept low and kickbacks (aka rebates or commission) deliver a profit especially on the turnover.

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Plutus Payroll finally pays up ... but pays people TOO MUCH!

mathew42
Unhappy

Answer is yes.

I feel sorry for the innocent caught up in this mess.

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mathew42

Any connection to ATO official Michael Cranston facing charges over son's alleged $165m fraud? The radio said it involved a payroll company.

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What could go wrong? Delta to use facial recog to automate bag drop-off

mathew42
Trollface

At least that way you can chat with the friendly flight attendant about the issue instead fo wasting time at the baggage carousel hoping your bag might appear :-).

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Australia considers joining laptops-on-planes ban

mathew42
Childcatcher

Re: Airline shares? Sell,Sell,SELL

> Airline shares? Sell,Sell,SELL

I suggest buy, buy, buy for manufacturers of sturdy luggage. Of course that doesn't solve the problem of TSA master keys and theft.

When I first started flying long haul, one habit was to buy a second hand paperback fo read on the flight. It might be a tradition I return to.

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Nutanix, IBM hug each other in Power pity party

mathew42

In Australia it appears that many disagree on when it makes sense.

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Agile consultant behind UK's disastrous Common Platform Programme steps down

mathew42
Alert

Re: It's odd...

> After all, who would bid on a government tender without understanding those requirements right?

Just about everyone. It is damn near impossible to uinderstand the requirements when the government 'subject matter experts' don't have a clue, which isn't helped by branches in different geographical locations follow a different process for the same task achieving a slightly but significantly different result. Managers incapible of making a decision and unions protecting jobs further adds to the complexity.

Yes, I'm emotionally scarred by government contracts. I need to breath deeply and remember that simply delivering a mostly working solution under these conditions should be considered a success.

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US Marine Corps chiefs declare WAR on stolen sex snap sharing scum

mathew42
Megaphone

Re: War on ${HotTopic}

While I agree that stamping out porn has no chance of success, this is different. This is invading a person's right to privacy.

Would you be okay with others at your work having naked photos of you taken without your consent most likely in an area where you could reasonably expect privacy and sharing those photos? I think many people would wonder everytime someone looked at them if that person was mentally undressing them to compare with a naked photo. It is reasonable to expect that in any other work environment the participants would also be disciplined and most likely sacked. It is reasonable to expect that criminal charges would occur.

Lastly military personel need be held to an honour code because war is a highly charged environment and it takes discipline to not take revenge on prisoners or civilians.

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Tesla, Atlassian told to go through front door in effort to save Australian industrial civilisation

mathew42

Frequency regulation

The biggest issue SA faces in the power grid is keeping the frequency consistent across the grid. Each wind tower is a micro generator which needs to be kept in sync with the grid and that was the cause of failure when the entire state was blacked out.

Large generators are great at regulating frequency because they have a high inertia.

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mathew42
mathew42
WTF?

Tax payers won't be slugged.

This is my favourite line from the press conference:

The Premier said SA taxpayers would not be slugged for the energy plan and the money would come from budget surpluses.

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mathew42
Mushroom

Re: Ozzies

Even better AEMO are forecasting a gas supply shortage will threaten nation's power supplies.

Nuclear is the correct option but timeframes are too long.

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nbn™ puts the acid on Australia's ISPs to speed up its NBN

mathew42
FAIL

Re: The Need For Speed

The last mile is only a small factor in the performance. If your RSP offers unlimited connections then a few people joining the RSP on the same PoI who download significantly above the average (e.g. torrent) can impact on performance significantly.

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mathew42
WTF?

Aussies not demanding speed

The reality is with 83% (and rising) selecting 25Mbps or slower, Australians are not interested / prepared to pay for faster speeds.

The second issue is how do you determine the minimum speed and identify the point of congestion? A slowdown could occur because of:

  • Performance of client device (computer, smarttv, phone, etc.)
  • Performance of internal cabling / wireless netowrk
  • Performance of modem / router
  • Performance between premise and PoI - NBNCo could monitor
  • Performance at PoI - NBNCo could monitor
  • Performance on RSP's internal network
  • Performance at RSP's external gateways
  • Performance of network beyond RSP's gateways
  • Performance of server providing data

Of these, how many does the RSP have direct control over? A poorly thought through decision will result in significant additional cost with negligible benefit. The RSP supplied free modems are typically budget and don't meet the needs of everyone. For example:

  • A person in a large home might require the latest and greatest wireless technology for maximum reach
  • A torrentor will require a router that is able to handle a very large number of open connections
  • A person using it primarily for interactive uses (gaming, remote work, video conferencing, etc.) will require high QoS features

Should an RSP be expected to provide high quality video conferencing between their customers and someone sitting in Kinshasa when I'm using an early generation Android tablet? If not where does an RSP's responsibility start / end?

Why shouldn't I be able to choose an RSP who provided unlimited data in the knowledge that peak speeds are likely to be impacted?

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mathew42
Holmes

Natural consequence of cheap unlimited quota is slow speeds

The Tragedy of the Commons means that most people will not use shared resources efficiently especially when isolated from other users.

As the last mile becomes faster, those on unlimited connections will leave 4HD Stan, etc. running for background sound or simply because they don't care. If a few people do this network performance for everyone is trashed.

The sensible alternative is quotas which are used to manage other shared resources (e.g. fisheries).

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Competition and wholesale costs, not lack of fibre, crimp broadband in Australia

mathew42
FAIL

Re: FTTN could be faster than FTTP

> And again the 1Gbps lol here is your excuse again no isp is selling 1Gnps what's your next excuse?

Why call facts an excuse? NBNCo have made 1Gbps plans available to RSPs since December 2013. There must be a reason RSPs are not selling these plans, especially when you consider the first to do so would capture the early adopters.

> If you believe in only 25Mbps when other countries has already delivered 1Gbps and soon to be 40Gnps connection.

Are you happy with the outcome of Labor's plan being 83% on 25Mbps or slower connections?

> You you got want you want we will be devaded behind the rest of the world.

Clearly you are so distracted by my explanations of the reality of Labor's plans (<1% on 1Gbps in 2026) versus the spin (1Gbps FTTP for all) that you've misunderstood my argument. Removing speed tiers from a 1Gbps network would deliver the innovation you desire and also make HFC & FTTN performance look second rate. Sadly the reality is that Labor designed a network where only a very privileged few will ever see the speeds and associated benefits available elsewhere.

Before you can fix a problem you need to determine what the problem is. It has been very clear since 2010 that speed tiers on the NBN would create a digital divide in Australia between rich & poor.

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mathew42
FAIL

Re: close, but no cigar

> 2.64% on 25Mbps and higher is a go out come. Considering the country has been stuck on 4Mbps

Sorry, but I'm not sure what you are trying to say here. I'm also not sure where the 4Mbps comes from. The average speed for ADSL2+ connections is 11.9Mbps according to data from Internode and iiNet published in Fibre to the Node: At what price?. For 80% of customers had access to 6Mbps or faster.

> How much is the cost of upgrading the hfc and fttn to deliver 1Gbps 10 years after it's required?

What you call fanboi stats are a simple progession of Labor's plan. You avoidance of the question is it good that "83% are on 25Mbps or slower" indcates to me that you are a selfish person who expects to be in the privileged 10% with speeds faster than this. Your absence of facts is Trump like.

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mathew42
WTF?

Re: FTTN could be faster than FTTP

> So you claim of a good technical solution is to build a network that delivers snywhere from 5Mbps to 100Mbps where everyone pays the same price.

WRONG. I have never claimed that FTTN or HFC or 4G is good technical solution.

What I have stated is that for 83% of Australians if you remove the speed tiers from FTTN, that their connections will be faster than FTTP with speed tiers. The point of this is to show how bad policy can ruin a better techical solution.

> But Mathew you kee harping on about 83% on 25Mbps or less which is still more than what labor was aiming for isn't it.

SORRY but very WRONG! Labor predicted in the NBNCo Corporate Plan that 25Mbps and slower connections would be under 60% by now and approaching 10% of connections would be 250Mbps.

> So really the take up figures are better than what labor predicted.

Instead we find 0% on 250Mbps and 13% and shrinking on 100Mbps. I'd hardly call this a better than Labor's predicted outcome. I'm curious as to how you can see this as better.

I really suggest you read the NBNCo Corporate Plans to understand that for a document that was promoted as 'conservative' has been shown to be extremely optimistic. It is worth looking at Labor's updated NBNCo Corporate Plans where they increase the percentaage on higher speed plan based on early connection data which was heavily biased towards early adopters.

By discounting CVC, the LIberals are very effectively forcing NBNCo to source more revenue from AVC reducing the demand for higher speeds. Clever policy which has support of the fibre fanbois, but will result in more people choosing cheaper slower plans.

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mathew42
FAIL

Re: FTTN could be faster than FTTP

> Mathew you know it's 14% on fttp currently paying for 100Mbps while it was only 7% on fttn paying for 100Mbps.

Actually I don't. The 13% on 100Mbps comes from nbn 2017 half year results and in particular slide 10 of the attached presentation which only presents a breakdown for fixed line. Can you supply a source for your numbers?

> IF fttn is so good as you claim we should be expecting the same %

My point is not that FTTP is theoretically faster than FTTN, but that for 83% of Australians choosing 25Mbps or slower FTTN, HFC & FTTP deliver essentially the same experience. This is the practical outcome of Labor's decision to build the NBN network with speed tiers, as distinct from their spin about building a 1Gbps FTTP network and failing to highlight their expectation that <1% would connect at those speeds in 2026.

If you believe in a FTTP only network then what is your justification for 83% of Australians (and growing) only having speeds limited to those available on HFC & FTTN.

Is it equitable that Labor predicted in 2026 less than 1% will have a 1Gbps connection?

Are we maximising the innovation potential of the nation with speed tiers limiting 83% to 25Mbps or slower?

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mathew42
FAIL

Re: FTTN could push up speeds faster

Optus have turned on their 1Gbps 4.5G network in Macquarie Park, Sydney. The alternative is that competition between Telstra, Optus & Vodafone is driving up performance and driving down prices, while Labor structuring NBNCo as monopoly has resulted in poor performance.

Pretty sad when FTTP connections are routinely slower than 4G.

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mathew42
FAIL

Re: You missed the POI Cockup

Sadly the fibre fanbois supported Conroy in claiming the 121 PoI decision was not an issue even when Simon Hackett wrote NBN Points of Interconnect and the future of competition way back in December 2010.

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mathew42
FAIL

Re: NBN: A one man, one act play

> ideological commitment to private ownership of key infrastructure

You are aware that Labor planned to privatise NBNCo as soon as it became profitable?

> You get the politicians (and networks) you deserve.

Cannot agree more. The fibre fanbois ignored criticisms of Labor's NBN plans and instead became Conroy's cheersquad, because they were blinded by the shiny fibre light. The result is a FTTP network with speed tiers where 83% are connected at speeds easily supported by FTTN & HFC.

If Labor had eliminated speed tiers then with 100% on 1Gbps, FTTN would have been near on impossible to justify and HFC challenging. The Liberals are now in the position to instruct NBNCo to remove the speed tiers on FTTN as the variable performance is unacceptable and simply mandate a minimum speed of 25Mbps. Labor's amazing talent in constructing a FTTP network which is slower for 83% than the Liberal FTTN network will be on display.

> Might be time to stop relying on luck eh?

Might be time to stop relying on government hand-outs. After supporting Labor in placing the NBNCo being on budget and deliver a 7% return on investment, the telecommunications industry is now requesting that the value of NBNCo write down the investment by $20 billion. Labor's original budget was < $30 billion.

Might also be time to consider what digital equality means in the country.

- Is 13% on 100Mbps and falling acceptable or indictive of a digital divide?

- Is Labor's plan for less than 1% on 1Gbps in 2026 acceptable or a plan for a digital divide.

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mathew42
FAIL

Re: close, but no cigar

> You complain believe about how wrong you 50% on 12Mbps. Because Telstra isn't selling 12Mbos lol.

WRONG. I provide some reasonable evidence based in facts why the % on 25Mbps is significantly higher than Labor predicted. I then point out that the 12 + 25Mbps is 83% which is significantly higher than Labor forecast.

Can you offer an opinion on:

1. I consider 83% on 25Mbps or slower a worse outcome than 50% on 12Mbps. Can you provide reasons as to why you think it is a better outcome?

2. Is 83% of connections at 25Mbps or slower a good outcome for a network capable of 1Gbps?

3. Are FTTN & HFC capable of delivering 25Mbps?

The 1% on 1Gbps is to point out that unless you consider yourself in the top 1% of Australians by income or can make a very good business case to your employer then under Labor's plan it is extremely unlikely that you would have received FTTP before 2030.

The point that NBNCo have offerred RSPs 1Gbps since December 2013, but do not offer plans faster than 100Mbps is to give you the opportunity to make some informed commentary as to why RSPs are not offering this speed.

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mathew42
FAIL

Re: FTTN could be faster than FTTP

> Due to the actions or inactions that the Coalition are performing which have totally decimated the NBN, that is probably true.

For 83% of Australians connected at 25Mbps there isn't a perceptible difference between FTTN, HFC or FTTP. More accurately you might say for 13% and shrinking who are willing to pay for 100Mbps connections switching to FTTN has reduced their options. Now this is only 13% within the FTTN footprint and these people have the option of moving to a FTTP area. Further it has to be acknowledged that the demand for 100Mbps service is more likely to come from younger people within society who are more likely to live in apartments, many of which are serviced by FTTB.

> though many on FTTP are faster, the 4G connections are more ubiquitous

The evidence shows that 4G average speeds are already faster than 31% of NBN 12Mbps connections and trending towards being faster than 83% of NBN connections.

> No, they never did...creating a business plan is not a "prediction".

Business plans typically set out what you hope to achieve. Typically they include a comparison with competitors. Labor's NBNCo Corporate Plan clearly documented how speed tiers would result in a low take-up of fast plans leading to Australia falling behind.

> But considering that they had control for only a year of commercial rollout, it is hard to fault anything they did as most of it has been done by others.

Labor's pricing structure for the NBN and an instance that it make a return on investment have shapped the NBN more than any other change. If Labor were still in power then all the evidence suggests that 83% would still be connecting at 25Mbps or slower as this figure has barely changed with the addition of FTTN to the network. The only change made by the Liberals to the financial mdoel was to reduce the price of CVC faster than Labor planned.

Labor's NBN plan was only ever going to deliver the promised benefits to a minority of the population (currently 13% and shrinking). On a social equaity basis this would be sufficient justification for cancelling the project as a policy which is not delivering.

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mathew42
FAIL

Re: Ban unlimited plans

> It appears you don't even read what you post...the article from 2008 that had some wild speculation about Comcast adding limits is more proof that they do NOT want to do it, for if they did don't you think that in 9 years they might have done something?

Did you check for a more recent article? I suggest searching to learn that Comcast did implement quotas and last year boosted them from 300GB to 1TB. I included an old article show it wasn't a new idea.

> 600 Million (the VAST majority of homes)

World population is currently 7.5 billion. Approximately 2.5 people live in each house in West and China. If you look at poor contries the number is higher, but falls steeply as wealth increases. Lets assume 4 people per house, that would be 1.875 billion households. Most people would struggle to call 1/3 the vast majority of homes.

> Just because not everyone owns a car is no reason to not build highways.

Poor analogy. Building an NB with speed tiers is the equivalent of building multi-lane highways where the slow lane is capped at walking pace while the fast lane doesn't have a speed limit. Labor predicted NBN demand to be such that in 2026 less the 2026 less than 1% would travel in the fast lane.

Toll roads also typically don't charge an access fee. They simply charge a usage fee.

> You apparently have no idea what G.Fast is

All I did was cut-n-past a quote from an article you referenced to provoke a reaction. I made zero comment as to the validty of Deloitte's statement.

> You continue to Trumpify these very old articles and claim that together they have some bizarre meaning, much to the degradation of your reputation.

Who is making baseless statements that have been shown to be wrong?

A better example of holding a position which denies the evidence would be fibre fanbois who refuse to acknowledge that for 83% of Australians who have chosen 25Mbps speeds on the NBN there is no perceptible difference between FTTP, FTTN & HFC.

My guess is you are in the 13% (and shrinking) who want the government to subsidise their internet connection. If you were in the 1% who Labor predicted would connect to 1Gbps in 2026 then I doubt you would care because $20,000 for FoD would be pocket change.

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mathew42
FAIL

Re: Ban unlimited plans

> Please list those "RSPs" as I have not seen them...is this something you thought you read somewhere?

Try google. Just like wasteful people would leave a tap running if water wasn't metered, wasteful people will leave a video stream running when they are not watching it.

- Get read for 250GB quotas

- Bandwidth Cap

- Internet in Canada

> "we forecast about 600 million subscribers may be on networks that offer a Gigabit tariff as of 2020, representing the majority of connected homes in the world"

Lets unpack that statement based on the the report:

- In 2016, only 10 million on 1Gbps out of 250 million connections capable of 1Gbps.

- In 2020, between 50-100 million out of 600 million (5-10% of all broadband connections)

By comparision Labor planned for <1% of NBN connections to be 1Gbps in 2026. At least they were honest about their plan leading to an increasing gap between Australia and other nations.

> most all countries will have a Gigabit offering to their entire populace by 2020

Unless it is a mobile or satellite data service I seriously doubt this for countries like USA, Indonesia, Thailand and most other third-world countries. In the rich suburbs of major cities on Java I can see that happening but beyond Java most islands rely on satellite.

Even Labor's plan was to cover only 90% of Australia with FTTP.

Did you miss the bit in the article from which I quote:

"The other fiber technology, known as Fiber to the Cabinet (FTTC) is unlikely to deliver Gbit/s speeds in 2016, but an evolution of the technology known as G.FAST (also known as Fiber to the Street, or FTTS), in trial phase in 2016, should offer speeds in the hundreds of megabits per second (Mbit/s), and Gbit/s (with the headline speed an aggregate of uplink and downlink speeds) by 2019, if not earlier. For carriers with copper-based networks, FTTS could offer much higher speeds over existing copper connections running into homes, significantly reducing the upgrade costs."

With Telstra rolling out 1Gbps mobile this year. This will be fastest retail plan in Australia by an order of magnitude.

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mathew42
FAIL

Re: Ban unlimited plans

> 'using' an internet connection does not - use as many packets of data as you like. no animals will be harmed in the process.

WRONG! Those packets require require electricity to move. Last time I checked climate change was harming animals.

> yes, there are infrastructure costs, but these are already factored in.

WRONG! NBNCo GPON architecure is 2.5Gbps more data flowing across the network will require upgrading GPON and internal routers.

> yes, it costs more to deliever a 1000mbps service, but thats ok too - just charge the actual cost of providing the service.

WRONG! Every single FTTP connection is capable of delivering 1Gbps with no physical change. The cost of the hardware remains the same if it is turned on or not and irrespective of the speed. It is only when multiple customers start to transfer data concurrently in sufficient quantities that the limits in GPON and routers are reached, meaning that NBNCo need to upgrade hardware.

> unfortunately, we just chose a bad model for recovering costs.

Something we agree on. Labor chose a dogs breakfast for cost recovery: An artificial model containing high access charges and high data charges. The Liberals are tweaking the model slightly by reducing CVC costs to reduce the portion of revenue from CVC so that AVC prices cannot be reduced as quickly (if at all) ensuring that demand for higher speeds is muted.

Labor wrote in the NBNCo Corporate Plan:

"Despite the movement of residential consumers up the speed curve shown in Exhibit 9.12, the growth in AVC (PIR) ARPU is relatively modest. This reflects the small price differential between AVC tiers, and the decline in prices for the higher tiers. However, the consequence of more End-Users moving to higher speed tiers is reflected in the significant rise in the contribution of the CVC to overall ARPU, as increased speed drives increased usage."

AVC should have been set at <$10 wholesale to encourage everyone to connect. As services using more data grow, people will naturally increase their usage (e.g. Stan streams become high quality 4HD streams, instead of highly compressed SD with out the user touching anything). Every so often high end customers reach their quota and upgrade plans, enabling RSPs to purchase more CVC.

CVC revenue increases as quotas increase providing NBNCo with the revenue to upgrade hardware and reduce the CVC pricing. Reduced CVC pricing enables RSPs to increase the quota on plans as we've seen with ADSL.

A higher proportion of revenue from CVC incentivises NBNCo to offer faster speeds and maintain a congestion free network. For example upgrading from GPON2.5 to GPON10 has the potential to increase CVC revenue 4 fold delivering a rapid return on investment. The alternative is a high connection fee (AVC) meaning that NBNCo have less incentive to reinvest in the network because very few will upgrade. Evidence for this is the 13% and falling on 100Mbps and the inability of RSPs to develop a viable business case for faster NBN connections.

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mathew42

Re: FTTN could push up speeds faster

Telstra deploying 1Gbps for boasting rights. Same reason that Labor promoted 1Gbps before the 2010 election in resposne to Google Fibre. Neither party expect many people to connect at those speeds and both parties include quotas to minimise the impact on the network. RSPs spoilt this by responding to customer demands for unlimited internet creating congestion. NBNCo are fighting back by discounting CVC based on the ratio of connections : CVC.

There are also some technical advantages of faster speeds, but only with quotas. Users finish their large downloads more quickly freeing up capacity for other users, rather than taking a longer time to download the content.

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mathew42
FAIL

Re: close, but no cigar

> the only reason I chose a slower speed "to the house" is because the CVC provisioning makes it useless to try for more.

The problem is not CVC provisioning. The problem is that RSPs are overselling the service. Find an RSP that doesn't offer unlimited and doesn't share with another RSP that does.

> even though I want to "go faster", I cant.

In the real world, people leave home earlier / later to avoid peak hour traffic. From all accounts the peak times on the NBN are between 6pm - midnight so working at home during the day should be fine.

> i'd gladly pay for 1gbps if I knew I would actually get it. working from home would be awesome!

Just how much of a premium would you pay? Consider that Labor who touted 1Gbps expected that less than 1% would have 1Gbps connections in 2026.

The alternative is that NBNCo could remove the speed tiers and everyone on FTTP has 1Gbps. Labor would be sensible to consider this as it would expose the technical limitations of FTTN.

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mathew42
FAIL

Re: Ban unlimited plans

> People expect unmetered internet because that is the way it is for the rest of the world.

RSPs in most countries are trying to move away from unlimited plans because a small percentage of users download most of the data causing all the performance issues on the network. Do you have unlimited electricity or water? No because people would waste electricity and water if they didn't need to pay for it. In many places water wasn't metered in Australia, but that has changed. On unlimited plans, people will leave Stan on streaming as backround noise. With quotas people will learn to switch off Stan when not in use.

However, I do agree that customer demand is for unlimited plans and the limited market choice in Australia (essentially TPG, Optus & Telstra) make it difficult for people to pay a premium for performance, because once a company offers unlimited plans on NBN performance drops sharply.

> People expect Gigabit because the rest of the world is expecting it by 2020.

I suggest the reality is that only a few countries are expecting 1Gbps networks across metropolitan areas (cities > 10,000) by 2020. USA, Canada & UK can definitely be excluded from the list.

> They will all surpass us in the next 3 years.

Not unexpected. If you read the NBNCo Corporate Plans released by Labor you can find Labor's expectation for average speed in Australia and the exponentially widenning gap between Australia and the rest of the world. (Exhibit 9.23: Average Speed if you want to check).

You should have read Labor's NBNCo Corporate Plan in 2010 and it would have been blindingly obvious the gap betwen Labor spin (1Gbps FTTP for all) and the fine print (<1% connected at 1Gbps in 2026).

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mathew42
FAIL

Re: FTTN could be faster than FTTP

> If you remived speeds on both fttn and ftp which would be faster?

The point of asking the question is to make people realise how you can build a good technical solution and then have Labor politicians completely ruin the capability with an artificial pricing model that includes speed tiers.

In the retail market today, the internet connections with the fastest peak speeds are 4G. Crazy world isn't it?

> Btw how's the 50% going to be on 12Mbps for labor plan. Please use speed take up figures from nbn co media release when answering. You used go on about that one until it was shown to you it's a LOT less than they planed for.

What Labor didn't include in their forecast was that Telstra wouldn't offer 12Mbps plans which has distorted the take-up figures. The total of 12Mbps + 25Mbps is ~20% higher than Labor forecast.

Labor predicted that by now 250Mbps plans would be close to 10% Instead we find 0% on 250Mbps and 13% and shrinking on 100Mbps.

I'd hardly call that a success for high speed NBN. Do you?

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mathew42
Facepalm

Re: close, but no cigar

Definitely hyperbole, but considering that NBNCo have offerred 1Gbps connections wholesale since Dec 2013 and not a single RSP is offering a plan faster than 100Mbps you would have to admit real money where my mouth is demand must be close to non-existant, especially when you realise the first company to offer faster plan will achieve significant advantage by attracting the early adopters.

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mathew42
Unhappy

Re: close, but no cigar

When 83% on fibre are choosing to connect at 25Mbps or slower you could install gold-plated direct fibre and it wouldn't make a difference to average speeds.

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mathew42

Re: Scope Creep

This quote from Senator Coonan: Beazley's a telco "bandit" implies at 6Mbps it would have been FTTN.

Beazley's proposed network - which would bring broadband of up to six megabits per second - failed Shadow Spokesperson for Communications, Senator Stephen Conroy's own test for ‘true' broadband (at least 10 megabits per second), Coonan said.

Rudd having deposed Beazley took FTTN to the 2007 election and only switched to FTTP when Telstra blocked FTTN by not responding to the request to build the network.

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mathew42
Trollface

FTTN could be faster than FTTP

Question: If speed tiers were removed from FTTN and left on FTTP which connection on average would be faster?

Please use speed tier take-up figures from NBNCo media releases when answering, and not what you personally would order.

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mathew42
FAIL

FTTN could push up speeds faster

> just maybe, fttp is the only thing pushing up Australia's average speeds

83% of connections are 25Mbps or slower. This has only increased slightly with the addition of FTTN connections. The reality is that apart from a small minority (13%) most Australians don't care enough about faster connections to pay more.

More than 3 years after NBNCo made 1Gbps plans available ot retailers in December 2013, you cannot buy a plan faster than 100Mbps. Meanwhile Telstra are deploying 1Gbps mobile networks. I'm not suggesting mobile is the answer for reliable high quota plans, but at this point in time in the right conditions mobile data is significantly faster than fixed copper/fibre in Australia for retail customers.

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mathew42
Facepalm

Ban unlimited plans

Water, electricity and gas services are metered yet people expect unmetered internet.

RSPs need to ditch unlimited plans / streaming excluded plans, so that people don't leave netflix running as background noise. For example, my kids were watching youtube videos simply to listen to music. Actually spent some money on a streaming service and consumption has dropped :-).

NBNCo could encourage this by basing CVC discounts on combination of quota per user and CVC per user.

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nbn™ tops AU$400 million half-year revenue

mathew42
FAIL

Re: Chance would be a fine thing

Fraud was Labor promising 1Gbps FTTP just prior to the 2010 election without mentioning that they expected less than 1% to be connected at that speed in 2026. Labor's predictions in the NBNCo Corporate Plan on take-up of the speeds tiers has proven to be optimistic with the exception of 25Mbps plan. If Telstra had offered at 12Mbps plan, then it is likely that for all speeds except 12Mbps take-up would have been lower than forecast by Labor.

The IT community should share significant culpibility for not calling Labor out on the inevitable result of building an NBN with speed tiers. Instead most were blinded by the shiny fibre, like a 2 year old can be distracted by a lolly.

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mathew42
FAIL

83% selecting 25Mbps or slower

The problem is that only a small number of Australians (13% and falling) are willing to pay for fast internet speeds. Labor created the current situation by choosing to implement speed tiers (AVC) and also charge for data (CVC). If Labor had made the sensible decision of providing 1Gbps FTTP on all connections, then FTTN & HFC would not have been possible. Instead Labor planned that less than 1% would have 1Gbps in 2026! It would be reasonable to assume that only the elite could afford the 1Gbps connections.

Note that the 31% on 12/1Mbps is artificially lower because Telstra are not offering this speed tier. I would expect that if Telstra offered 12/1Mbps that it would most likely be the most popular plan.

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mathew42
FAIL

NBNCo Inflated Higher Speed Tiers

Starting on 1 November 2016 and ending on 31 March 2017, NBNCo offerred RSPs a Step Up AVC Credit, which made if free for RSPs to upgrade customers to the next hightest speed tier. I expect we will see the number on 100Mbps fall further when the figures at 30 June 2017 are released.

Still no mention of FTTP speeds faster than 1Gbps when these have been available since December 2013. Meanwhile Telstra are promoting 1Gbps 4G services.

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Deadly Tesla smash probe: No recall needed, says Uncle Sam

mathew42

Insurance companies watching

> A 40% reduction in accidents and it's not even news.

I expect that insurance companies are watching very closely because a 40% reduction in accidents would mean a very big saving. My opinion is that it is insurance premiums that will drive the take-up of driverless cars as the premium difference diverge.

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