* Posts by rossglory

5 posts • joined 5 Sep 2011

Massive study concludes: 'Global warming is real'


warming trend is unequivocal

jim oreilly - "Natural cycling still dwarves the anthropogenic effect." - actually the trend is clear and unequivocal and that trend is a warming caused by human greenhouse emissions.

the fact that the 'noise' looks confusing to you on a chart is irrelevant, it is no different to experiencing warmer and cooler days as we head into autumn. each day can vary considerably but the cooling trend from summer to autumn is unequivocal. think about it.

also, have a think about the fact that approximately half our co2 emissions have been absorbed into sinks, sinks that are about to become sources.

Judge cracks down on Bayesian stats dodginess in court


Not Bayesian

There was definitely an issue with the stats in the SIDS case cited in Bad Science. However, it was nothing to do with Bayesian inference. In fact a prerequisite in Bayesian inference is that all observational evidence is independent. The 1 one in 73 million probability came from a 1 in 8,543 probability taken from the occurrence in a population, squared. The is bog standard probability theory.

Bayesian inference relies on a prior which is the probability of a particular hypothesis without further evidence. This is then iteratively modified by the ratio of evidence given the hypothesis to the probability of the evidence without an hypothesis (which actually gives a likelihood ratio not a probability or 'odds').

I work with Bayesian inference and applied correctly it is atonishingly good at predicting likelihood. This ruling is a classic case of baby and bath water.

Does Cameron dare ditch poor-bashing green energy?


who's wishing poverty on everyone?

'wishing poverty on everyone' is what the current economic system thrives on. we've all paid a share of the 7 trillion dollars to keep the global financial merry-go-round spinning. and the spread of beneficiaries of the past 30 years of huge growth looks just a little skewed e.g. the us gdp has doubled (that's a lot of dosh) but median salaries have dropped.

alternatively we could ask what prosperity actually means. for most a trade off of some job security and a bit more time with the kids against the latest ipad or led tv probably sounds quite appealing, probably hard for the hard core free market technophiles to grasp but a reality all the same.

clearly a return to bau (i.e permanent exponential growth) is not happening and in the long term cannot so why not try a different tack.

wrt energy, fossil fuel prices (crude has quadrupled in 8 years even after the slump) will soon make even off-shore wind look cheap so let's just get on with and invest in renewables now.

Green energy and jobs will cripple the UK economy


real energy news

1.3bn gbp of taxpayers hard earned lost as sellafield mox plant closes. should have invested the money in windfarms instead.

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turkey news

so the global warming policy foundation has found that combating climate change is too expensive. what an exclusive, on a par with the latest turkey news - turkeys don't like xmas.

this from the foreword sums up this gibberish "The measures which reflect it have largely focused on ‘mitigation’ – that is, on curbing emissions of (so-called) ‘greenhouse gases". 'so-called'?? that science goes back over a hundred years.

if you're gullible enough to lap up this biased nonsense more fool you.....meanwhile the real world will move on and leave you behind

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