Re: The cause of the next world war
The past 15+ years indicate that a revolt won't be happening. The people of China have the same type of oppressive regime,
You are demonstrating the complete failure to understand Slavic (and Chinese) for that matter culture and upbringing. There will never be a revolt in China. A revolt in China happens only on the back of a foreign intervention, war or something else like that (Boxer uprising, Mao, etc). When China is self-governed it does not revolt regardless of how much the peasants are oppressed.
Russia (and slavic countries for that matter) are a different story. Their modus operandi is pressure buildup, buildup, buildup then blow a gasket. The pressure level before the gasket blows differs from country to country being nearly zero in Poland and nearly infinity in Bulgaria with Russia somewhere in-between. Once it blows, being a couple of parsecs away is highly advisable. There has to be a pressure building for it to blow though. No pressure buildup - no blow.
So going back to both factors: both China and Russia are managing both external intervention and discontent quite well. We have invested tens billions in trying to destabilize and/or regime change Russia. We got a Regime Change - from alcoholic idiotocracy (Eltsin) to autocracy - Putin. They have now reached a point where they have countered most of our strategy and are preempting most of what we do. Their level of discontent is at historic low. Realistically there has not been a point in Russian history when the general population (and even the middle class) has been that well off. It has always been a country of 99.999% extreme poverty and 0.001% ludicrous riches. While the latter is still there (for a given value of there being equal to Knightsbridge and Chelsea) the 99.999% are no longer in extreme poverty so sorry, no pressure buildup - nothing to blow a gasket for decades (if not centuries). Bread and circuses are provided, 99.99% of population is content.
We have not used anything like that resources on China in order not to kill the goose which lays golden cheap manufacturing, so they key factor which makes Chinese changes tick is not there. There is no internal pressure either as once again for the first time in Chinese history a significant portion of the population is well off.