Ah, yes, as my old epistemology professor used to say, "an 'actual fact' is any statement proving I was right to vote Brexit."
Unfortunately, there are no facts about the future---there are only facts about the past---that's what makes the future "the future"; all we can do is guess the likelihood of events happening. We may, for example, presume the sun will rise tomorrow, but if a rogue black hole passed through it overnight, there'd be a supernova before dawn.1
So, if you have already decided the probably of things improving equals the probability of them getting worse, then, indeed there is nothing here to learn. But if you want to open your mind to the range of options that might occur and the probability of them occurring, then the article and the ensuing discussion have been delightfully informative.
1: To zeroth order a supernova is a black hole appearing in the middle of a star. A blackhole plunging into a main sequence star would produce similar effect: a massive influx of material, heating it up to ignition point and creating an explosion that rips apart the star.