* Posts by John Smith 19

16330 publicly visible posts • joined 10 Jun 2009

Is Facebook worth more than Google?

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Happy

@yet Another Commentard

"Company valuation is difficult, that's the problem. As a user above notes P/E ratios are a good measure, we don't know Facebook's E though. Just assuming (wrongly) it converts all that income into earnings, $1Trillion would be a P/E of 500. If the user above stating a $300M profit is right, that jumps to an eye-watering 3,333 (as another notes). "

I used the only figures I was aware of and stated all assumptions I am aware of in the process to demonstrate how crazy this valuation looks to me. I just went where the numbers lead me and had no idea of what constitutes a "realistic" P/E ratio. IRL a company's management which turned all its profit into earnings for it's stockholders (and kept on doing it) would be viewed as insane.

"The value is jumped up by some self interested traders who have sunk billions into it, and want to get the cash back when (if) it IPOs. They must hope The Next Big Thing does not appear before that happens."

Pretty much view of things.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Happy

Always remeber that FB *customers" are its advertisers

It's real *product* are the people who have accounts on it.

I'm sort of hoping that some massive data breach will happen and the kiddies will go "But, but I thought Facebook was my *friend* and didn't do bad stuff like spying on me and stuff."

And they all migrate to Google's version, like good little Eloi should.

Mhohohamhohohamhohohamhohoha

That is all.

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SergeTheGreat

"Are we forgetting the end goal of a company is to make money?"

No.

You're thinking about *quoted* companies or privately held manufacturing companies.

The purpose of IPO's is to convert the owners large block of stock or "paper" into block of *cash* supplied by the new owners.

The bigger the block, the better.

Making a profit then becomes *their* problem, although the greater the *apparent* profit being made (or even the *potential* for such profit) the better chance you have of offloading in the first place.

The book "Startup" is a nice guide to the internals of VC funding and how Microsoft handle competitors.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Happy

That gives a Price/Earnings ratio of c 3333 to 1.

Now obviously the price figure is just what a *current* FB stockholder would *like* it to be.

And the earnings figure is leaked by someone who'd like to talk FB (expected) stock price down.

P/E ratio says if you bought this stock and the company dished out *all* its earnings (and presumably kept on doing so) how long would it take to get what you paid for the stock (assuming the earnings stay the same) back.

In this case about 3 1/2 Millenia.

Of course if profits are 10x bigger and opening price is 10x smaller that's a P/E of 33 years.

If you can get in early talk the price up *higher* and offload your shares not a bad deal (not quite as good as that of the founders of course).

But an actual sensible *investment*?

ARM daddy simulates human brain with million-chip super

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Why nature is ahead.

Well volume wise it helps if you can do *true* 3d packaging.

The best I'm aware of in this line was a Hughes project for some kind of missile guidance system (SDI?) stacking bare *wafers* on top of each other with feed through connectors made by putting drops of Tin on the surface and using a temperature gradient to "Drive in" the Tin to create a high conductivity path front to back. top layer sensors (vision?) then multiple layers of processing and memory.

Today a thing called "SMART Cut" uses H ion implantation to create a weak layer <10 micrometres below the surface. Build the circuit on a regular thickness wafer, slice off the top and repeat. Thickness reduction of x30 roughly, putting very substantial power into a standard chip package. If you can get the heat out.

However this still leaves you *fundamentally* in a 2d world. Neurons are simply *not* restricted in this way. They also allow fan outs of up to 10000 other neurons, while conventional transistor gates hit about 10 by design.

Power wise the brains asynchronous architecture saves a *lot* of power and eliminates the whole clock distribution problem. Today *half* of all CPU transistors are dedicated to either transmitting the clock or restoring its rise/fall times or re-synching the local clock with the chip wide clock due to clock skew.

To *really* get to human brain power levels they would have to go with Carver Mead's CalTech group using custom logic elements (but built on conventional foundary processes) as *analog* components of simulation. They've gone rather quiet lately but part of what they found was the design has to *incorporate* noise, not fight it (digital logic aims to swamp noise).

They also found that "Computation" flowed in waves across their arrays of devices.

BTW the Torus is a good architecture for super computers as a message passed even the long way round gets to its target *whatever* x,y direction it's sent in.

An interesting point about this project will be if the processors will be black box neurons and its the connections and initial data values that will be settable *only* (IE like a *real* brain) or if they will tinker with the simulator code on the nodes once built. IRL that would be more akin to supplying drugs or replacement cells through in vitro grown stem cells.

It's an interesting project and I'm not sure how much work has been done on the bridging stages between actual neaurobiochemistry and the big picture stuff. Thumbs up.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
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@Destroy All Monsters

"And in the end, I bet a smart machine won't be a large neuron simulator at all."

Well you're a large collection of neurons and you seem to simulate intelligence quite well.

So the question is are you a smart machine?

John Smith 19 Gold badge
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AC@09:53

In fact Steve Furber *also* ran the Amulet project.

But you're right if you want to cut the power bill asynchronous is *the* way to go.

I suspect this might have something to do with being able to observe and log the state of all the processors at the *same* time so you can establish what they are doing.

A question that gets *very* tricky when things aren't tied to some kind of central clock.

Coulson arrested

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@pootle

Although NI disabled FB and Twitter access to their journos desks (and blocked their key cards from accessing the floor where the fragrant Ms Wade's office suite is located) *before* she addressed the scum (or her loyal staff as she likes to refer to them in public) it seems her last speech was recorded for posterity.

By several journos present.

A copy somehow managed to find its way to at least one of the nightly news programmes in the UK.

I suspect Fox will not be covering this in depth.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Joke

@Mike Richards

Silence dog.

He is a cyber warrior god. A maker of earthquakes and an eater of souls.

(Well how would you explain his cockroach like powers of survival?)

John Smith 19 Gold badge
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If Wade went Rupe would be looking for a new redhead

Sadly the complete lack of moral scruple called for is beyond any candidate I can think of.

Earth orbit for £1,000? You must be joking

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@GrantB

A couple of notes on Gerald Bull.

While his HARP project got plenty of altitude they had limited orbital velocity, as the shots were for profiling the high atmosphere.

People forget that Bull's ultimate aim was a shell using 3-4 solid propellant stage in *addition* to the gun charge, mostly to add velocity but I would expect at least 1 to circularise the orbit at the top of the shell's travel. Like the 3rd stage of Black Arrow (waxwing) they were a *critical* part of making it work at all, *not* an incidental part of it.

AFAIK Bull *never* made orbit. That's not to say that if adequately funded it would not have worked and I'm unaware of any reports in the open literature on actual firings of the Saddam Hussein gun.

On a general point. High g electronics is a *lot* simpler today due to the massive improvements in integration. *Powering* them remains tricky. I think capacitors have an edge. AFAIK military systems (US navy GPS guided shells) favor thermal batteries. Try getting hold of one of these puppies. I've heard of some AAM's using an inertial generator of a magnetic rod inside a solenoid. The rod is free floating and the missile pulls the coil along. Higher speed, higher power. Pure EM theory. A magnet inside a weighted ball (to keep it orientated in a particular direction) whizzing round a circular pipe with the solenoid wrapped round it in the outside casing should generate a fair bit of power.

Actuators remain difficult. They have to be built ruggedly to survive. Explosively actuated devices are *expensive*. Note very small devices survive high g better. Think hard drives hitting floors from 1m up. c20 000g.

Bull had a touch of the Bond villain about him (so does Elon Musk, specifically Klaus Maria Brandauer in Never Say Never Again). Frank Langella in the Doomsday Gun is an entertaining portrayal of him, although I've no idea how accurate it is.

He seemed like someone born 50-60 years too late. The last of the long range gunmen, better suited to walking the assembly halls of Krupp.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Boffin

You might start by finding out what the *lowest* Earth orbit that can last 9 orbits would be.

BTW The peak altitude of the Earth's atmosphere can change x10 depending on season and time of day.

For those who like the big gun route consider the V3 multi chamber design rather than the Bull HARP approach. In *theory* the V3 could be done today with a series of those gas powered mole killers (properly triggered) El Reg featured a while back. Finding a way to do a trailing seal behind the projectile might be quite a good idea..

Proving you've done it *is* part of the prize. The US navy failed to do this with their NOTSNIK flights in the late 50's, which *might* be the smallest payload (c1.1Lb) launched by the smallest rocket ever (a 3 stage solid carried on a fighter at cM1.05). Most people will think "Radio beacon," but how about corner cube reflector picking up a ground laser?

BIS "Spaceflight" published a 4 stage solid design in around 1967-8. IIRC moslty black powder and fibre glass. Solids could do it *provided* most of the work was done by the team. High Power Rocketry re-loads are AFAIK designed *not* to allow you to make orbit, but some creative re-purposing might get round that.

For liquid systems consider that the humble drinks can weighs 11g but carries c319g of fluid and is pressurised to c 90psi, yet cat be stacked (unpressurised but *fully* loaded) to a height of 10 cans.

Making use of those facts is left as an exercise to the reader.

For those who want to get into serious rocket engineering you're looking at pumped systems with low pressure tanks.

http://www.osti.gov/bridge/purl.cover.jsp?purl=/15014281-FB1BWl/native/ or

http://www.llnl.gov/etr/pdfs/07_94.2.pdf

Alternatively the "pistonless" pump uses high pressure gas indirectly to keep the tank mass low and confine the high pressure pumping bit to small chambers.

http://www.responsivespace.com/Papers/RS2%5CSESSION%20PAPERS%5CSESSION%207%5CHARRINGTON%5C7004P.pdf

You're going to need to be pretty handy with tools and AFAIK both designs are patented but it might people some ideas, and neither has gone to orbit *yet*.

As most people don't have experience in handling chemical weapons level compounds something less lethal, like Hydrogen Peroxide/LOX with Liquid fuels (paraffin, lamp oil) or something like LPG or Butane would be a better choice. IRFNA is hypergolic with lots of stuff but is nearly as nasty to handle as the amines and NTO.

The UK has a mainland rocket and missile test site at Cardogan bay in Wales operated by Qintiiq. They even have a large barge you can launch off. Weather they will let you play with their toys for free is another matter. Otherwise it's a trip to the Hebrides, but I think they own that one as well.

Lastly.

Most of this stuff has legal restrictions and licenses. it's also somewhat dangerous so stand *well* back, preferably behind a nice thick concrete wall. Keep the frontispiece of John Clarke's book "Ignition" *firmly* in mind at all times. The difference between success and failure can be quite impressive. Long term rocket engineers tend to ask people to speak up a lot.

NB. Should you a) Not kill yourself and b) Succeed in placing a package in orbit (*and* detecting it's there) you have...

Conducted an unannounced, unauthorised (but then again possibly undetected) *orbital* launch from the UK mainland, which has *never* been done before.

Expect HMG to express *extreme* twitchiness at such behavior, in the form of arrest warrants, search warrants (probably with dogs) and possible armed response. Competent legal representation is recommended, along with avoiding any bulky looking clothing and looking like an electrician from Latin America.

Good luck, keep your organ donor paperwork handy at all times JIC and the above comments are made for information purposes only.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Meh

@Peter Dawe

"This is around 520 km altitude and spacecraft in these orbits circle the Earth once every ninety minutes or so."

Total BS. The Shuttle orbits roughly around 90 mins at c180Km (IE 100 nautical miles).

The orbit is stable over a time period of at least weeks. That altitude should be stable over a period of millenia.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Joke

Calls for systems engineering of *very* high order.

Which I am totally incapable of performing.

Don't be fooled by the payload size. Smaller ¬= easier below a certain size (It's that *proving* your "satellite" has made 9 orbits that makes it that little bit trickier).

London could face cuts for not sharing services

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A good idea in *theory*

But as far as I can see.

Takes *lots* of prep work. Anyone who listened to the podcast on the Royal Mails migration to a cloud. 8 weeks to do, c2 *years* to get it prepared *properly*.

Unclear if senior management staff understand their jobs well enough to do it.

My gut feeling is they start by harmonising various features of each services back offices. I'd guess things like pay rates, holiday allowance start date etc.

I'm with Bozzer on this. But Flocke Kroes (Nellie's boy?) probably has the real outcome about right.

Will News of the Screws reappear as Sunday.co.uk?

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A little note about rupert Murdoch, The Sun and the Times

Some time ago Murdoch gave an interview just prior to a UK general election.

He stated the Times would support whoever they wanted.

He stated he was going to have a meeting with the Sun Political Editor on who *they* would support.

Anyone think it odd the Sun *has* a Political Editor? I don't think the Sunday Sport ever did.

Murdoch has proved highly adept at having his cake, eating it and getting a free 2nd one. He wants all the £1Bn BSkyB revenue *and* something like the £600k an issue of the NoTW advertising revenue.

The answer to the question. Probably.

Can Liam Fox break the power of British Army, Navy, RAF chiefs?

John Smith 19 Gold badge

@SDCowley

"the first two comments, unsurprisingly jump to the BAE Systems (Note: not BAe!) connection yet again. Can people please stop commenting on things they don't understand."

Then perhaps you would care to explain the connection.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Happy

RE The US Marines

IIRC This force *alone* fields more *fighting* personnel than *all* the UK fighting staff combined?

Of course the UK can field 20 000 staff in MoD procurement, which does make up the numbers.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
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Promising start.

But note both those words.

"Promising" as in not delivered anything yet.

"start" as in beginning of a *long* process.

Now let's see if he can cut off access to the PM of the CEO of BAe.

'Transparent' PM dishes up more public datasets

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So people *could* find out if all that money pumped into the NHS has caused more people

to be *successfully* treated.

Or not.

Also handy if you're looking for a more "prescription friendly" GP regarding various ailments.

Cautious thumbs up on this one.

News of the World TO CLOSE

John Smith 19 Gold badge
WTF?

Hard to believe.

In fact *very* f**king hard to believe.

This looks like a well planned doomsday retreat.

Dump the deadwood (I'm sure Ms Brooks has her little list of journos who've not been "productive" enough for taste or a bit too active on behalf of their various unions).

I smell phoenix liquidation.

Meet the new CEO of News.

Same as the old CEO of News.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Happy

@Vic

You might like to find out who *really* owns Amstrad today.

It's not the man whose name is above the door.

Home Office to review future of Sprint ii framework

John Smith 19 Gold badge
FAIL

*only* 100 data centres.

But wikipedia (I know, not exactly the most authoritative source) reckons there are 56 forces in the UK (including the NI, MoD and Nuclear plods).

But 2000 apps?

Funny but I could have sworn that certainly England and Wales had the *same* laws applied across *all* regions.

is it just me or does the phrase "Sole supplier" make people look for a *very* large dead rodent lying about the place.

Security giants join forces to train cops on cybercrime

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It's *very* rude to mock the idea of an IT security organisation lead by a blind ex-politician

And indeed *very* easy to do so. (Especially when said former Minister was *so* keen on the UK National ID card scheme).

Which is why I won't do so.

I will retain a polite silence on the matter.

Not a word.

Absolutely nothing.

NOTW hack-hackage: Inside the personal data press mess

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The relevant minister could enable that criminal offense fairly quickly

*if* they chose to.

At the moment it's got the *appearance* of a major sanction but is actually toothless.

Good point about former Labor MP's and ministers having the chance to fix this and backing down as too spineless. Something of a permanent problem whenever someone whispers the words "Rupert wouldn't like that" in their collective pinnae.

Thumbs up for the article, not the behavior involved by both journalists and politicians.

New company to lead UK police ICT procurement

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Thumb Down

Senior plod "We demand right to put our snouts in the trough."

Your wish is granted.

My trivial psychic powers are picking up a message....

It's feint. Let me concentrate..

It's saying "Regional fire brigade control rooms."

Does anyone know what it means?

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Happy

IT companies helping the police with their (procurement) enquires.

Should this not include the Fraud squad as well?

After all given the equation

money * con-sultants * con-tractors * re-sellers * loose contracts

Isn't fraud practically *guaranteed* ?

Sunspot decline could mean decades of cold UK winters

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Boffin

A note on scale.

The difference in the amount of sun you receive between Summer and Winter is roughly 3-4%.

IIRC the sunspot level (from a recent article on El Reg) was something like 0.1%

*However* that ignores 2 things. The *spectrum* of those sunspots (and wheather they are high in radiation which strongly affects the atmosphere or not) and the associated bursts of high energy particles and there effect on things like cloud formation through nucleating water drop condensation.

If climate modeling and weather forecasting should have shown anything to *all* scientists it's *very* unwise to to dismiss *any* phenomena on such a large scale out of hand, given the CO2 levels discussed in the 100s of ppm. EG 300 ppm is 0.03 %

John Smith 19 Gold badge
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@John Hawkins

"My understanding is that current calculations suggest only a 0.3 degree C decrease from a Maunder-like minimum, too small for an ice age."

http://www.nso.edu/press/SolarActivityDrop.html"

Good lord, actual numbers. Thumbs up.

Auditor declares FiReControl a 'comprehensive failure'

John Smith 19 Gold badge
FAIL

One recurring theme of *all* these f**kups seems to be

they never survey the *current* state of a system (fire brigade, ambulance, hospitals etc) *before* they announce the new super-duper solution.

I find it *very* hard to believe that *all* centres were hopeless. My gut feeling is that like a lot of human institutions they follow the bell curve.

Some might well be *staggeringly* bad with a measurably worse chance of surviving a fire or having your property burned to the ground before *anyone* turns up to do something.

Most of the rest are reasonable and some would outstanding.

But bringing the laggards up to *average*, and then moving the average up a notch (or two) requires careful analysis and *patience*, which ministers seem to be incapable of.

It would appear that data sharing which (supposedly) was going to be one of the benefits of this system, was already happening. It needed enhancing, *not* a root and branch change.

If you've no real idea of the performance level of the *current* system, at least down to regional, (and preferable individual control room) level how would you know if you've made *any* improvement?

It should be *impossible* to make such an investment and demonstrate *no* reduction in average response time (on a regional, not overall basis), fewer deaths etc.

But I think they did manage to do just that.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Unhappy

8 new high security offices, with air con and backup geneartors.

Perhaps a data centre consolidation project? How many departments hardware could be fitted onto *one* site?

If HMG has them on 20 year leases (at *least*) you could put quite a lot of kit in them and their bandwidth *should* be enough to allow remote management. So *no* staff re-location.

Never happen of course. The "disruption" will cause too much loss of "service" blah blah..

Pacific rare-earth discovery: Actually just gigatonnes of dirt

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Happy

It;s a simple equation.

cost of extraction > price we can sell the product at. Rubbish.

cost of extraction = price we can sell the product at. Look at logistics of extraction.

cost of extraction < price we can sell the product at. Start building the plant.

But that assumes the *cost* of extraction stays the same. Now if that drops *enough* it's a whole new game.

There appears to be no breakthrough in extraction technology that will lower it.

I do like the bio-concentration idea quite a lot. However as bio-fuel from bacteria has shown it helps if the bacteria *excrete* the product to avoid having to kill them and extract the product which turns out to be quite energy and machine intensive. Problem is if they did excrete little pure metal pellets they'd probably sink to the bottom as well. Better, but still a PITA to lift.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Boffin

Pumping silt from 5Km below the ocean surface may be a bit tricky.

You're looking at a sea bet pressure of about 500 Atm

That's about the pressure inside a Shuttle engine pre burner.

But a lot colder.

Happy mining.

of course if there a way to extract *all* metals in the silt simultaneously that *might* be worthwhile.

NotW accused of hacking Milly Dowler's voicemail

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Flame

Brooks scared off the relevant Commons Committee the last time they wanted to talk to her.

No doubt she'll be opening up her files of "unpursued" stories to see what interesting little tidbits she has to discourage them this time round.

This is how "Business" is done at the court of King Rupert.

Don't expect any change in SOP even if she left tomorrow.

John Smith 19 Gold badge

Was anyone else thinking

"Heinous & despicable"

Sounds like a firm of lawyers?

BTW It's not the *last* administration that has hoped this one was going to be buried.

Look up Cameron's recent media advisors.

My names not Ron, but my coats on and I am gone.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Unhappy

AC@11:18

"saw it as an isolated incident and decided to do nothing,"

In the police service this usually got reported as the "One bad apple"

Cisco drives epic Chinese surveillance network, says report

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Big Brother

*Why* Cisco?

Isn't the middle kingdom knee deep in local suppliers for this?

Moderatrix kisses the Reg goodbye

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Happy

A possible role model?

http://www.private-eye.co.uk/sections.php?section_link=street_of_shame&issue=1291

Atlantis crew prepare for the 'Final Countdown'

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Happy

Come back fast!

NASA is due to announce the *final* design for the SLS and first ones will need the SSME's for the first 4 going up.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Meh

That should read

the end of the 50 year dominance *by* NASA of American spaceflight.

The two are only the same in the view of some parts of NASA.

Local councils shed CIOs as cuts bite

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Flame

Massive opportunities

To f**k local government even further.

Although CIO's don't seem to have done a brilliant job at managing the contracts that *already* existed with "partners".

Spooks made 1,061 bugging errors in 2010

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Meh

Shock News. Interception commissioner reports something *slightly* critical about MI5

Only *slightly* of course.

Everything A-OK otherwise.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
WTF?

Indicative of the desire to go on more fishing trips.

5% year on year growth.

Icon says it all.

EU cloud data can be secretly accessed by US authorities

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Coat

*established" for terrorism

But as always.

They came for the terrorists, but I was not a terrorist.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Flame

The PATRIOT Act

Every f**king time.

"We're just like EU companies in our data protection (*unless* any federal law enforcement person waves this under noses and then we just bend you over and grease your cheeks)"

No they are *not* like the EU. It's time to stop pretending they are.

Terrafugia flying car gets road-safety exemptions

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Happy

@sprouty76

"...that trying to land on 2 wheels would be interesting, especially with a crosswind."

You might like to look at the landing gear on the U2.

*very* interesting landing process.

German vulture detective hits turbulence

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Coat

As flying things performing in a group surely the collective known is

a squadron of vultures.

Although I do like the idea of a wake.

New anti-corruption offences come into force today

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Joke

I predict many more jobs for BAe's PR subsidiary.

'nuff said.

Who'll keep taking Windows Tablets in the iPad era?

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Flame

"pads" have been around since the early 90's

As has "PenWindows." It was *never* designed to actually *run* applications.

It was designed to create enough FUD that killed the likes of Pen Softwares PenPoint, an OS designed from the group up to support tablets (on a 286 to boot).

Job done.

Fast forward 20 years.

Laptops still tend to have s**t battery lives and are Windows pads *any* better?

Not really. The design philosophy remains "Make it run Windows whatever on an x86 and hope the battery tech improves/MS lower the power consumption a bit."

But hey if laptop/table Windows were heavily tweaked then *gasp* it would not *be* Windows.

Bit like embedded Windows, only with more compatability.

Perhaps the answer is a me-net of keyboard, mouse, pro-upable touch display and processor brick (with 8hr battery) which can be left on the floor out of site

Clumsier than a laptop (to move) but looks a bit better when it's laid out.

I know what a dynabook is. I know how far *any* of these are from it.

John Smith 19 Gold badge
Unhappy

@zef

"Meanwhile in 10 years we might get prood that Intel/Microsoft paid Asus and other manufacturers off so they don't defect to Arm and not-Windows, much like their past dealings."

The first priority of an effective monopoly is to deny it exists.

The second is to protect it at *all* costs.