I've been in the industry for nearly 30 years and seen a couple of interesting tipping points adn the a few recessions to boot. Experience and an admitted 'gut feel' tell me that whilst there may not be mass abandonment of traditional IT models, a significant move will occur to open source, open stds, cloud and saas based IT in 2009. Perhaps we should lengthen the timeline a little as aggresive moves like IT delivery model transformations and new business model variants from new technology capabilities or commercials may become more prevalent the deeper we get into recession; so late 09/early2010. Looking across 09 and 10 into early 11 the move will, in my view be a significant one that will shake the industry - recognised by all the big players changing their models if nothing else; even Microsoft that last bastion perhaps of legacy delivery models and software pricing.
The industry was at a tipping point in any case, where new, cheaper technology was being made ever more easily available and useful to a wider number of people - then add the current (and probably 2 year long) recession we are facing which fuels the search for lower cost performant technology to continue business (or to survive perhaps) cost effectively in this market and we have all the fuel we need for a reasonable sized bonfire.
It's interesting to see how much emotion went into some of my fellow commentators respnoses; I don't personally feel charged either way, for me it's all about plain business & commercial logic and about considering history of tipping points, consumer adoption patterns and recessionary behaviour. Then it's about working out in advance, how to make good business decisions in this climate.
The writing is, IMHO, on the wall, whether some like it or not!