Re: I will purchase an electric vehicle - eventually
If only the national grid would think about this and model their network, and make plans... Oh, they already are.
Yes - heating is a much higher energy demand than EVs, but is also a load which the grid can handle, the "headroom" I have been describing thus far is headroom *already* in the system - no investment needed at all. Our heating load in this house, in the coldest of weather over the last two winters (-8.6 degrees), is ~5kW, which even with an inefficient heat pump (and it clearly won't be pulling a COP of 5 in the coldest weather) isn't going to exceed 2kW of electrical load; that's within the capacity of the distribution network - yes we'll need alot more generation, but that's a different part of the equation, and we'll have a whole stack of gas we don't use any more... Because burning gas in a power plant, transmitting that power over the grid, and using that electricity to run a heat pump gets more heat into a house than burning the gas on site. Is it the ideal fuel to use? Absolutely not, but as that gets phased out in favour of more zero carbon generation then everyone benefits.
"How much do you get paid for grid export? Peanuts as a fraction of what it costs to import that's how much."
My off peak import rate is 7.5p, my average import rate (total cost/total import) over the last six months has been about 10p, and my export rate is 15p - so yes its a fraction, but what we used to call a top heavy one. (That import rate is just the import, not accounting for export credits, DFS sessions, self generation).
That's also the "now" situation. Half hourly tariffs are really in their infancy, and the ability to have these tariffs dynamically adjust to the grid is still very new. Octopus Agile and Intelligent Go are good examples of two approaches being trialled:
- One where the price tracks the wholesale price, set each by the "day ahead" rate.
- One where there is a traditional "off peak" period, but also a completely dynamic "additional half hours" that can be given to you at effectively no notice at all.
Neither of those are the same as tariffs from twenty years ago, so why do you assume that tariffs in twenty years time will look the same?
"If it was ready and capable of handling it then why is there be a back-log of generation schemes waiting to be connected? "
Because you're asking why the tip of the chisel is blunt when I've said that the handle is comfortable. There is a massive difference between HV connections to new generation and the ability of the distribution network to handle as much energy as it handled twenty years ago.
Of course we're not yet ready for the load we expect to have in thirty years time - we'd be foolish if we were, it would be a waste of resources.
I'm well aware of toyota's defense of their old business model... and I have some sympathy with their BEV vs PHEV, but none at all with their fuel only vehicles.