Lets leave it a few years...
"On one level, Z-Wave is at a major disadvantage: it is not an open protocol in that Sigma Designs owns the intellectual property and it manufacturers the chips and licenses the right to use it (there is currently only one other licensed Z-Wave chip manufacturer).
Like the other big, proprietary standard in the IoT world Z-Wave allows others to develop products with its standards but that comes with a cost and with tight rules"
And I suspect that's it in a nutshell, History is repeating itself, and I'm not sure Z-wave are really considering all the VHS/Beta issues.
There may be a load of reasons Beta went under but its generally considered down to a few key reasons,
- JVC licensed VHS to anyone who wanted to make VHS systems, whereas Sony only licensed Beta to select partners who met Sony's terms.
- JVC 's willing to licence to almost anyone helped competition and so reduce costs.
- Sony's Engineers concentrated on quality, JVC's practicality, the first Beta systems tapes could record an hour, VHS was two. Very few movies are 60 minutes or less so Beta suffered.
- Once you get critical mass then market decides, once Beta machine sales started declining so video library's stopped stocking the films which perpetuated the downward spiral.
So what will happen here, Exactly the same.
Most of us don't care what protocol we use at home, as long as it works. Purchases will often to be driven by cost and practicality. I'd like some Hue lights, but honestly I'm not bothered they are Hue branded or the fact they use ZigBee. I want a set of lights that's easy to use (I have enough IT issues at work) and change colour in response to something.
Hue and ZigBee is already selling in the numbers , its working and looks simple enough for everyone to use. Phillips have invested time to make it simple to use, and promoted it to get tools like IFTTT to support it. Hue may not be perfect but I suspect that's got a foot in the for the ZigBee camp to build on.
Lets face it one of the biggest things that us consumers learned from the VHS/Beta format wars (or DAT/DCC.MD, or BluRay/HD-DVD, or all the memory card formats, ) is that we just leave them to fight it out before shelling out. No-one wants to be left with the V2000.