Re: Here's what I'd like to see discussed about UBI
"Instead, I'd like to see someone from the hardcore anti-UBI side answer the question of what's the alternative if there is massive structural unemployment in our society."
OK, I'm hardcore anti-UBI, so I'll bite. You are the one suggesting an alternative system to the current one. It is therefore up to you to explain:
1) how to transition from one system to another without financial collapse;
2) how to pay for UBI without eye-watering tax increases.
Part of the reason that people support UBI is that it reduces admin. Not really: our current admin is because some people need more benefits than others. The author of this article, consciously avoiding any numbers in his argument as to why we should upend society for his benefit, gets considerably more in disability benefits than standard unemployed people. Which level is the UBI to be set on? If disabled people can live on it, everyone else will be having a party, for a month or two before the economy collapses.
Even £200/wk is £10k/year, multiplied by roughly 50m adults yields £500bn/year. Children get nothing, of course, because sod 'em, and we already cannot afford that bill. That is the same order of magnitude as total UK expenditure: OK, the benefits bill can be reduced, but not eliminated, as £200/week cannot get you accommodation in many parts of the country, so we take say £100bn off the benefit bill. This gets you down to roughly half of total UK government expenditure. So, taxes will have to rise by 50% to pay for this: basic income tax at roughly 30%, plus 15% NI, VAT at 30%, and so on. And that's true only if the economy doesn't suffer for it, which of course it will in the short term, even if long-term it works.
Of course, foreigners can't be able to claim it for obvious reasons, so we would have to leave the EU to implement this. Which I guess is not the argument that it was last year when I was talking about this.
I would be convinced of UBI only if someone can actually show me how to implement it without such massive downside risks that I would prefer large-scale unemployment instead.