Re: But has
I guess that's where Dr Nicholl and 'some prick on the internet' have something in common.
Questioning the qualifications of the eminent consultant, whilst not presenting your own for comparison, is massively worthy of mockery. I accept the use of the word 'prick' was a poor substitute for 'random' which would have made the same point, in a more polite fashion.
My ignorance on the milking of, and the existence of molly-cows, thank you for explaining.
That isn't a fact, it's a supposition. Or perhaps a self-fulfilling prophesy if people decide to be actively obstructive. But for trade, there's no good reason to do that given suppliers want to get paid. Again, Queue theory dictates, there will be tailbacks, it's a foregone conclusion.
The only question is how bad the disruption will be, there is no possibility that a system that is utterly reliant on low latency, will adapt to high latency without issue.
Now, you might point at my lack of qualification to comment on the matter being a software bod, and you'd be right, so how about the European Transport Forum.
The Port of Dover has looked at the potential impact of more checks on lorries and – through independent modelling – estimates that two minutes of extra processing time for each lorry would lead to tailbacks of 30km. Researchers at Imperial College, London, go further: they estimated that extra check times could lead to tailbacks of up to 50km.https://www.europeantransportforum.eu/mediaroom/how-a-no-deal-brexit-would-cause-chaos/
And UK government research show that trucks would face six-day queues to board ferries at Dover if new customs checks were to delay each vehicle by just 70 seconds – while extra processing time of 80 seconds per truck would lead to permanent gridlock, “which would mean the whole country is in a traffic jam,” one official said.
Correctness of declarations
Possible I suppose. So companies that have never imported/exported outside the EU may never have done that before, but it's all standard stuff based on WCO and GATT rules. And the WCO is based in bureaucracy central, aka 'Brussels', so not hard to seek advice. And of course HMCR and the Euroports are all used to dealing with global trade.
People will get it wrong, its complicated enough that it's a specialised job to fill the declarations in correctly. As an example, I want to import some unsliced bread from France, some Edam cheese from Holland, some salted butter from Denmark, all into the UK, I want to export a sandwich to Dublin.
Genuinely look at the official advice and tell me that the average person is going to get that even vaguely right. This is the government page on the matter.