> "Everything else is a toss up."
I'd be very surprised if the body of the rocket (basically big lightweight fuel tanks with perhaps a thin aluminum skin) would survive such strong sudden area loading from one side without major warping at the least.
BTW, in the video the rocket does an interesting thing just before splashdown. First it tilts a bit to acquire some side velocity, then swings to the opposite tilt just before entering the water. This has the effect of making the booster fall one way while pushing its tail thru the water the other way (slightly).
I guess it's to reduce the toppling speed, softening the blow from the water surface on the side of the rocket. Maybe this is why the whole thing is so intact, letting Musk muse about reusing it.