Re: Less pessimistic here
I beg to differ on all counts.
Note: I didn't downvote you, its a valid argument. I can understand why you think that, because I'm in the minority that think the IBM "bear" case is overdone. They've been cleaning their stables for some years now, and that means dropping quite a lot of low margin business, and seeing the topline shrink. That attracts a lot of criticism, although it is good business sense.
But I do beg to differ about the optimism, because, as my boss likes to quote, "culture eats strategy for breakfast". And (speaking as a strategist) that's 100% true, and 150% true when doing M&A. So the problem is that IBM have bought a business whose competencies and success factors differ from the IBM core. Its culture is radically different, and incompatible with IBM. Many of its best employees will be hostile to IBM. RedHat will be borged, and it will leave quite a mark. A bit like Shoemaker-Levi did on Jupiter. Likewise there will be lots of turbulence, but it won't endure, and at the end of it all the gas giant will be unchanged (just a bit poorer). And just like a gas giant, IBM can be considered a failed star.