Re: Or the fourth option...
"Sod it, we won't license Android for use in the EU."
This is a silly strawman: AOSP is already out there and won't be going away. Not sure that such a restriction would stand up in court, but it's irrelevant. Google has, however, been moving components, including OS updates to Play Services and there is not yet a reliable replacement for this yet. A marketplace might be interesting but, of course, API compatbility would be crucial.
I think Google might stand to benefit from competition here, it does provide some top-class services and I can see an advantage in getting out of as much direct interaction with consumers as possible: don't run the app store but provide the infrastructure (including code checking) for one.