Re: RE: Mooseman
"May probably is a poor negotiator. But she's got a shit hand to play"
I always wince when I hear we have a poor hand to play. Of the two sides we can get what we want unilaterally by just not participating in the project (aka leave). The EU is in a less envious position as they really dont want a net contributor to leave the fragile project. May is a poor negotiator but as she has been determined that she doesnt want to leave the EU it isnt a shock.
"The Boris shitshow would last about a month before the UK starves"
I would be amazed if we lasted that long under Boris.
"Banging your fist on the table and talking tough is only going to work if the other side thinks you have the tools to actually carry through on your threats"
This is a fair comment against May except its not the tools but the will that is lacking. But this also explains why leave is not swooning to change their minds, the EU threats followed by desperate begging to remain just look pathetic.
"Unfortunately nobody except the most deluded of brexit jingoists thinks the UK can last more than a few weeks of hard brexit before it's at the table begging for a single market / customs union deal."
I am not sure how you bring jingoists to this, there were plenty in remain as well as some in leave. But why would we be begging in a few weeks, even the dire predictions of Carney and Osborne have to predict 30 years ahead to pretend there is a downside. Reports on hard brexit assuming we must apply either the highest tariffs or what we do while in the EU are deluded but as that would be self sabotage (think Osborne's punishment budget level of stupidity) why would we do that?
"Would be far better to do it now, before the chaos"
Too late. The EU is in multiple self inflicted crises, the chaos is already there. Everything is going to be the end of the EU and Eurozone according to its presidents and leaders of member countries. They are finally talking of reforming the EU after all this time because it has finally penetrated their little bubble that the project is in a dire state. Cant blame the UK for wanting some distance from that wreck.