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$200bn? Make that $467bn: Trump threatens to balloon proposed bonus China tech tariffs

Giovani Tapini

Nice reply, although I would add...

It is highly unlikely either at a local or global level that trade will be broadly equal at any given point in time.

There will be underlying reasons that the USA consumes more from China than it exports. You are should find, at least in principle, to find that the USA exports somewhere else that balances it, and that country has a trade surplus with China. This may not be the reality but it makes the point.

Is the USA simply over-consuming regardless of where stuff comes from? Is it ready and capable to take advantage if the tables turn? I am not convinced of this either.

As an aside economics doesn't necessarily do a good job when looking at non-manufactured resources e.g. Timber, meat, fruit etc that takes TIME to produce. There are natural timescales for trees to grow and fruit to ripen etc. Expecting relatively volatile global markets to deal with farmed produce leads to massive swings in prices, demand, and availability. In the long term it also seems to reduce capacity as farmers cannot cope with the price/demand volatility. You can't just plant another orchard for next year even if you know there will be demand. This is however going off topic...

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