Component glut not necessarily somebody elses problem
The manufacturing cycle times on semiconductors can be pretty long and also due to the cyclic nature of the phone sales market, semiconductor companies need to build ahead to smooth their manufacturing operations. They would be building components to Apples Long term forecasts.
While some of these companies are going to be left with millions of devices in inventory they may not be able to get rid of, it definitely becomes Apples problem.
If Apples LTF is not believable and they leave their suppliers carrying millions of dollars of inventory that they can't use, they may not be too inclined to believe Apples future LTFs. Which is Apples problem.