Reply to post: Re: Why would we be happy? We are still stuck in the EU.

No fandango for you: EU boots UK off Galileo satellite project

Roland6 Silver badge

Re: Why would we be happy? We are still stuck in the EU.

@codejunky - Remember the UK hasn't left yet and "the deal" is still rather opaque.

Yes some were forecasting hell and damnation immediately, personally, I expect things to start happening once we know the real form of the deal.

However, as was discussed a year plus back, I expect the UK to miss out on things rather than there being an exodus. So for example, City companies are setting up EU domicile operations in an EU27 country, rather than enlarging their London operations. We saw this in the 90's when IT companies set up in Ireland instead of the UK.

>So the economy returning to normal on the back of a falling currency isnt good for you?...

What I'm referring to is the lack of foreign confidence in the UK, ie. investment despite or because the UK is leaving. If T.May really wants to strengthen her negotiating position, having foreign investors publicly investing in the UK now would be helpful...

Hence my observation about inward investment into the EU28, I don't know what the situation actually is, but I expect the data is being collated (by the EU?). Given the lack of announcements, I suspect the UK has seen a reduction in inward investment. It would be nice to see some real data to see whether my impressions are correct or not.

>So the very worst predictions which still show us growing ... the worst assumptions being made and you say that is in line with what? I lost track about there.

I've noted that you have difficulty with things. Fundamentally, you take the 'if we had voted Remain' projection and compare it to the 'Leave' projection, the version I saw some months back the delta was about 0.5% ie. the contribution made by having circa 300,000 new residents every year...This in itself will deliver some benefit, freeing people up to work on new stuff rather than servicing the new intake.

So whilst I disagree with Brexit, some of the numbers do look favourable, the only question is whether TPTB/Westminster are able to seize the opportunity. I suggest that Westminster (and others) will focus on trying to recover the gross GDP figure, wheras I would refocus on the per capita GDP figure - an improving per capita GDP means you and I are doing better, an improving gross GDP figure means the government and those at the top of the pile (ie. company directors) are doing better.

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