The Political Angles
Business does not depend on tech alone. And here there is a lot of top level politics going on.
Qualcomm:
- has had a lot of conflict in China. The troubles are not over.
- has been forced to transfer tech to China
- has taken an architecture license from ARM
- has been forced to enter into a JV with Chinese companies
ARM:
- has been sold to a company that has racked up a lot of debt and might be forced to sell, possibly to Chinese companies
- has very recently entered a JV with China where China has 51% of the shares
China:
- is set on tech transfer from the West
- is willing to spend a LOT of money
- has received a lot of knock backs from the US
- has taken control over parts of the MIPS ecosystem
- forces foreign companies into JVs that tend to be dominated by the Chinese side
China is playing to win.
At the same time RISC-V is coming and is reaching industrial stage. The partner list looks like who-is-who of the CPU world. To them RISC-V is not just more modern but also less encumbered by politics.
If I am right Qualcomm will drop ARM and resurface with RISC-V. That is the test of this thesis.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
