Re: and Pigs might fly a.k.a F-35
could it actually plot an intercept in time to prevent, or even retaliate against, a strike from this range?
Depends on the speed of the incoming missile. If it is faster than the air defence weapons can cope with, not much can be done to stop the incoming weapon. Nominally the Sea Ceptor missiles on a Type 23 escort will defend up to Mach 3.2. Although the Kh-32 isn't really hypersonic it has a speed of Mach 3 to 3.5, so maybe, maybe not. But that's based on public statements about capability, and I'd be very surprised if either side were telling the truth, so you'd have to assume both systems real capabilities will differ.
The carrier might get lucky with its Phalanx, but against a supersonic target the chances are not good, and at the very short operating range of that weapon, the missile debris would still hit the carrier at a multiple of machs even if the warhead exploded. I'd imagine a few hundred kg of shrapnel moving at mach 3 would make a considerable mess.