Estimating the unknowable
Example: if a given something (like a Risk item) that might, or might not, happen, and there's zero information about the odds, then the odds may be assumed to be "fifty / fifty". A more experienced manager would actually set the assumed odds to "one-third / one-third / one-third", because they'd already know that in addition to 'might' and 'might not' happen, there's also the distinct possibility that 'something else entirely' could happen instead.
Using this basic method, and given "75 Microsoft bugs squashed this month", then how can we estimated the number of bugs remaining in Windows?
If you casually walk past a huge (mile-high) haystack, look down and can see 75 needles, then you might be able to extrapolate to guesstimate the total number of needles in the haystack.
Somebody somewhere (a Statistician) must have the skills and info at hand to produce a reasonable guesstimate of the number of remaining bugs in Windows. I would have guessed about three million, but now it must be closer to 2,999,925.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
