Reply to post: Re: Fag packet calculation time...

Full shift to electric vans would melt Royal Mail's London hub, MPs told

Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

Re: Fag packet calculation time...

by 25million at the same time

Nobody mentioned "at the same time", that would be completely impossible to sustain. The calculation is straightforward:

Work out how much energy the UK car fleet consumes per year, when it burns petrol/diesel. For 2016 it was around 140TWh petrol, 130TWh diesel (with another 150TWh for haulage), calculated as Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (TOE). UK annual electricity consumption is 360TWh, so to recharge all those vehicles from the grid would require more than doubling electricty production. UK generating capacity is around 100GW and there are 8760 hours in a year, so all the existing power stations would have to run flat out, 24/7, to meet that demand. That's assuming the load is spread out evenly across the year, not "all at once" which would be even more impossible. Even if we assume an electric car is 50% more efficient than petrol the numbers still don't add up.

Of course, if we can't replace haulage with electric, which seems likely given the range & charging issues despite Tesla's electric truck (and the long replacement cycle for commercial vehicles) we'll still have to maintain a parallel diesel infrastructure to refuel lorries, so many car drivers will simply rely on that, thus potentially increasing the number of dirty vehicles on the road.

Electric cars for everyone just won't work.

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