Re: Fag packet calculation time...
Yep, those talks ignore one big thing and that is that more and more people are charging at home using energy they have produced themselves.
My 2018 Leaf is currently being charged using the power generated by the PV system on my roof. It will take a big fat zero watts from the grid (provided the sun stays out for 3-4 hours).
Then there is the advent of cost effective (in 3 years at most) of home battery storage. I'll have one (34KW) by the end of the year.
It all goes to show that the calculations are far too complicated for the back of an envelope.