"I think they'll probably go for the maximum"
If he was arrested, charged and pleaded guilty he'd be unlikely to get the maximum. I still think there's scope for a bit of negotiation, "come out, surrender to bail, plead guilty and we'll ask for a suspended sentence if you give an undertaking to leave the country forthwith". And heigh, ho, off to a new life in his new country, Ecuador. They made him a citizen didn't they? Could they revoke that the moment he's out of the door?