Reply to post: Extrapolating short term trends...

Death notice: Moore's Law. 19 April 1965 – 2 January 2018

Christian Berger

Extrapolating short term trends...

... usually doesn't work. It's simply to short of a time to make such predictions.

The more relevant trend is probably that people now are much more contempt using 10 year old computers, so the average speed of computers doesn't rise as quickly as it used to do.

Perhaps we will get another great increase in speed, not from hardware but from software. In the past reductions of complexity have brought great advances in computing. Typical examples were UNIX (much simpler than Multics) or the Internet (much simpler than the telephone network or X.25 networks).

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