Reply to post: 'can expect'

Republican tax bill ready to rescue hard-up tech giants, struggling rich


'can expect'

"Individuals – particularly the super-rich – can expect lower taxes until the end of 2025, when the cuts expire"

This does not display a sufficiently cynical understanding of the US political process.

The authors of this bill certainly don't intend the cuts to expire. They were forced to include a sunset provision under rules restricting unfunded tax/spending policy changes; there are restrictions on increased spending that isn't funded by increased taxation, and decreased taxation that isn't compensated for by decreased spending.

One way to somewhat bypass these rules is to make the changes "temporary", so that's what the bill had to do. But you're a fool if you think that what will actually happen in 2025 is that Congress will say "ah, yes, those taxes are expiring now, so everything goes back to how it was, no action here". Low tax Republicans will push a narrative that the expiry of the temporary tax cuts constitutes a tax increase, and push for cuts to spending to preserve what they will certainly refer to as the "status quo". There will be an argument over how much of the "temporary" tax cuts to preserve vs. how much spending to cut, and a *meta-argument* about how this is framed, with low tax Republicans pushing to frame it as a "Democratic tax increase" (if the Democrats happen to be in charge at the time), for instance.

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