re: 2 questions
Well, from what I can see
1. Clearly the ISPs, as they will be able to increase the cost of purchasing online services that they don't provide (for instance, Netflix vs the ISP's own streaming video service) - not only by increasing the cost to the consumer to get access to Netflix, but also by charging Netflix more to send data across their services. This second cost will then end up being passed on to consumers by Netflix.
2. Anything new will likely by stymied by having to pay the fees needed to get decent access to the ISP's bandwidth. Services may not suffer, but rather costs will go up, and all of that additional cost will end up in the hands of the ISPs.