"Now add in containers and Kubernettes to the VMware equation, I know who I'd put my money on for the forseeable future. It isn't Microsoft."
I think you and OP are both right. I agree with you in reference to your point that Microsoft is irrelevant to this conversation. Yeah, VMs are not cloud, but why would you want MSFT's best efforts when you can use AWS or Google. Still though, if you are using Kubernetes on say GCP, who cares if the underlying VM is VMware or KVM or whatever as long as the cluster doesn't go down... which is not your problem with IaaS. Cloud provider has the SLA, then I would want whatever the lowest cost option is for VM.