Would it make sense to arrest him right before BlackHat or after? If you do it before, the arrest becomes a major topic of conversation at the conference. And there's already a serious long spoon relationship there.
Do you try him in the US or Britain? I seriously doubt that the FBI would proceed without a significant back-channel discussion with their equivalents. That depends on several things. Where are the witnesses? Which legal environment is better (for the prosecution)? Which team has evidence that they can disclose without compromising important secrets? Of course, if the real goal is simply to roll the guy, then certainly he can expect a warm reception when he returns home.
You only receive a public defender if you convince a judge that you lack the means to hire your own attorney. (Source: I've seen judges make that determination.) Unless they froze his bank accounts, that won't be an issue. And if they DID, there will be a gofundme that will do just fine.
I certainly agree that it is entirely possible that this is some sort of petulant behavior on behalf of one of our TLAs, or someone well-connected to them. OTOH, this case is going to have the attention of the entire security research industry. Thirty years ago, the five eyes probably could have blown this off. Not any more.
My wild speculation? If he strongly protests his innocence, then there will be a very large group of highly experienced and talented people looking to demonstrate that innocence by figuring out who the actual author is. And whoever succeeds gets a significant career boost. And makes the FBI look like chumps. The FBI knows this.
I expect that the FBI really believes that they have him. It's one thing to have a technically adversarial relationship with the security community. It's another to go to war.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
