Re: Downvote all you like but... it won't make us "more likely to survive"
"The premise is that the Mars colony will be self-sufficient. I expect that to take over 100 years, but it's hard to see it taking more than 200 years."
We've only scratched the surface of Mars and done some cursory geology of a few select locations that were chosen in large part for the best likelihood of being able to get a lander/rover to the surface in one piece. There is water, but not a very precise estimate of how much and how it's distributed. It's already known that the chemistry could be an issue and, just like on the moon, fines and dust will be problematic due to the lack of a water cycle to help aggregate those fines and knock the sharp edges off. The moon dust is more like pulverized glass than sand and it was found to be eating away at the space suit joints and seals. The Mars regolith is much the same.
Soil will need to be constructed to support plant life or perhaps some way to make a growing matrix such as is used in hydroponic systems where they use coconut husk. An HP set up will require the manufacture of fertilizers to supply the nutrients to the plants in the way soil bacteria does on Earth. New varieties of food plants will need to be developed that will thrive with different lighting and gravity. Initial work would be easier to do on Earth as there won't be the work budget to support many full time plant biologists on longer term studies. It's very likely that it will take a few tries to hit on varieties that work the best and shipping from Earth is only every couple of years.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
