Kids and pr0n
Assuming their main idea is to stop kids getting at it - not going to happen.
Plenty of tech savvy under 18's and the workarounds will be communicated around like wildfire.
The ones at risk of getting their card details (or whatever valuable info is deemed needed for age verification) will be the tech clueless over 18s.
Lots of under 18s will want to get at porn & a jumping through a few hoops wont stop them.
Way before the web, the Dury track "Razzle in my pocket" summed up under 18s efforts to get at banned stuff rather well