Reply to post: Nate Silver was not wrong

US election pollsters weren't (very) wrong – statistically speaking


Nate Silver was not wrong

Firstly, Silver is not a pollster, he is a forecaster and he uses polls as input. Blaming him for bad polling is pointless.

Secondly, I followed 538 (Nate Silver) during the election and it was very clear that he and his organization gave Trump a substantial chance of winning (about 30% on election day) and with articles that reinforced that it was an outcome that could easily occur. A 30% chance is a substantial probability, so all those who were "shocked" at the result cannot possibly blame 538.

The media who were taken by surprise have only themselves to blame, not polls or forecasters.

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