Re: 'Fraid not
Fact is, Microsoft has a strategy and it is working. It matters little whether they outstrip Andoid in number of installed devices before 2017 or whenever.
What does matter is that almost every (or as many as possible) of the enterprise and home users stay on products like Windows and Office. This helps to lock in future and current demand for more interesting SaaS offerings further down. Meanwhile, everything stays nicely linked(in)TM with the basic tools (Windows OS and Office).
Gently shepherding everyone onto cloud-based, mobile solutions will continue to nurture market OS and SaaS dominance. When companies can choose between a platform that works on legacy hardware, can host *nix VMs, run on new shiny-shiny or cheap droidware they'll take the easy way out, just as they have always done. The other option is to manage multiple, forked platforms with all associated headaches. Most people prefer the easy way and will continue to pay for it.
So their stock price will keep going up or stay stable. Unlike some of his predecessors, Nadella actually has some vision. The mega ad-slingers and shiny-shiny sellers may not have any other vision than to make lots of money, until people find alternatives.
At the risk of sounding like a complete Redmond fanboi, I think MS could do very well in this brave new, world. If they could build a decent browser, smartphone OS and search engine, resistance would be almost futile.
Your downvotes are of course always welcome.....