Reply to post: The elephant in the room...

Tesla books over $8bn in overnight sales claims Elon Musk

JeffyPoooh Silver badge
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The elephant in the room...

There was a news item a year or two ago about some bloke that ruined his Model S battery pack. Something about racing to catch a flight, and leaving it parked for weeks with the battery state too low. Those details don't matter.The interesting tidbit was that the price of replacing the battery pack was US$46,000.

Considering that the battery pack is going to go bad at some point (a certainty, not just a risk); this seems to be a huge counterbalancing factor to the advantages. Even if the price of the pack drops, it's still going to be 'The Most Expensive Car Maintenance Line Item' in history.

Will there be a huge fleet of perfectly good used 9 year old Teslas, with failed batteries, worth, when fixed, slightly less than the cost of repair? All other used parts will available cheap.

Will this limited lifespan, terminated early by the cost of the battery, result in the final analysis revealing that the total lifecycle footprint per km being higher than expected?

At this point, some will jump in to point out that the battery pack is going to last far longer than a decade. Really? Perhaps Tesla should market this technology, because I've never seen a Li-ion cell that was much good after eight or nine years, tops. And I'm not leaving my laptops outside in the extreme climate.

Unless Musk figures out how to get the cost of replacing a 'lifed' item way down into the 4-figures range ($46k -> $9k), then this is all going to blow up in about a decade.

Maybe he's planning to go to Mars before then, because there's going to be a price on his head back here on Earth...

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