Reply to post: Re: Increasingly convinced that Scott Adams is right (No, DavCrav)

Trump's new thought bubble: Make Apple manufacture in the USA

DavCrav Silver badge

Re: Increasingly convinced that Scott Adams is right (No, DavCrav)

"Oh I disagree oh you Social Justice Warriors."

I never really thought of myself as a social justice warrior, but whatever.

"Trump will finally win the Republican nomination as none of the others even come close."

I think this might be true; however, Trump will do worse as the field thins. It could be a close one as to whether he wins the nomination or not.

"And he will fare very well against the Dems as they can only field a proven, complete liar (Shrillary) who broke the law multiple times or a bloody commie lunatic (Bernie) that will tax the few remaining middle class at 90%. Not that I expect anything different from her."

Hillary Clinton is very likely to be the nominee for the Democrats. She is hated in many places, but these are almost entirely places that never send Democrat representatives to the Electoral College. Thus this is largely irrelevant.

"None of these Dem or Republican candidates will back out of the race and at the general election, we will have four or five running. That will split the vote enough for Trump to win."

It might split the vote enough for Trump to win the Republican nomination, but I would be highly surprised if any candidate other than Trump ran as an independent in the actual election. If Trump does run as an independent the Democrats will definitely win. If It is Trump vs H. Clinton then I cannot see enough blue states voting for Trump, and you could be looking at a Democrat landslide, 60% of Electoral College votes.

The problem with Trump is that you love him or you hate him. If you love him, you were never going to vote Democrat. (Although that's only because of what he is saying now. Trump of course used to be a Democrat.) If you hate him, you will never vote for him. And more than 50% of the population hate him, by most reckoning, especially once you move out of the rural sparsely populated and hence unimportant statistically, South. You cannot win the presidency without making in-roads into what is being cemented as Democratic heartlands, the East and West coasts, because that's where most people live and that' where most votes are. And they don't like him.

The polls that put Trump ahead are done of registered Republicans, who are not a representative sample of registered voters. The best polling we have for all voters puts Trump's chances as slim.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/bMcf

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