Re: just standard OTA (Over The Air) updates
"So do I need to have my mobile data turned on to have any chance of getting this, or will it arrive via wifi?
I hardly ever need to use mobile data as almost everywhere I go has wifi available."
Depends on how your device was built. Many WiFi-only tablets do a periodic phone home over the Internet to perform OTA updates. Your device may do this if on a WiFI connection even if it has mobile data.