Re: And meanwhile in the real world
As the swirl of comments have noted, the magnitude of sentencing does not appear to have much impact on the commission of crime. Therefore it seems to me that the thought process of people about to embark of a crime must consider other criteria before deciding which way to go.
The first and most obvious thought must be "Will I get caught?" If the thought process returns less than 50% likelihood of apprehension, then it would be worth a go.
The second thought would be "Is the risk of a substantial sentence I MIGHT get, a viable trade off for the material gain I WILL get if I take the risk?".
And finally, "I don't give a shit!".
Looking at these three decision break points, I'd say that given (a) low chance of detection, (b) chance of minimal sentence, and (c) not caring (for a multitude of differing reasons) about the consequences, the chances of a person committing a crime stands at 66% IF that person has a disposition towards committing crimes OR 33% for a basically honest person.
Recommendation: Build more prisons to cope with increase in population and expand police resources to cope with population expansion. You know it makes sense.
We are NEVER going to eradicate crime regardless of the sentencing policy because of the simple overriding thought " It won't happen to me". trumps everything.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
