Options 1 or 2 will occur. Just because Option 3 is the right thing from an engineer standpoint or an IT policy standpoint doesn't mean it will occur. People don't want to learn about how computers work. They just want the fucking things to work.
"What you said" - that people will learn about firewalls and learn to configure them - will not occur. Will not. History informs us pretty well about these things. People gleefully use tools they don't fully understand all the time. The more complex it is, the less time they spend learning it, unless it is their actual job (or a personal hobby) to learn about it.
And, to be blunt, IT is a really bloody boring hobby.