Re: Slightly confused history
As I remember it the Orange deal caught most people unaware and pushed Vodafone to react because Mannesmann was suddenly a competitor in the home market, where Vodafone was ironically weakest. It was highly leveraged which left Mannesmann vulnerable but it was a great brand and Mannesmann had the better strategy (integration of fixed line, mobile and internet) that Vodafone rediscovered a few years ago but only after burning through the goodwill. Without the deal I'm not sure if Vodafone would have been able to offer such an eye-watering premium to the institutional shareholders who decided to sell: apart from Airtel's investments it had virtually no experience outside the UK or in integrated services.
But the main thing you are missing is that DT is committed to selling T-Mobile US
Telekom has expressed interest in selling, yes. It has also set a floor on the price. Whether it would be interested in selling, to what it continues to consider as a direct competitor, I'm not so sure.
Otherwise I think the guys in Bonn are probably quite happy with hot T-Mobile US is doing at the moment. Let's face it: there is plenty of fat to cut away in the US market and further consolidation should not be ruled out, especially if the FCC ever discovers the concepts of unbundling and number portability.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
