ARM boss forecasts mass migration to netbooks

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I can kind of see where he's coming from - most people spend most of their time using a computer for browsing the web, little bit of banking or shopping, and sending and receiving emails - but I think he's wrong.

These same people also like taking a lot of photos since the advent of compact cameras whose pixel count grows ever higher as time passes thus requiring more memory bandwidth and processor grunt to "enhance" (turd polish in a lot of cases). These same cameras are also starting to garner more processor intensive movie capabilities so I think that the good old netbook may have to change in order to attain this level of market penetration as (limited) browsing and email can be performed by a phone and these other tasks currently require a more substantial machine.

All in all I think they kind of missed their calling for 90% takeup when they invited MS to the party, sold them as laptop alternatives, got rid of the SSDs, and continually inflated the size.

Probably right

I use my netbook a whole lot- in fact for someone who has been using computers a lot over the last ten years it is good enough for loads of stuff because I have quite a bit of old software - i even use it to play the games that I never got around to finishing back when my regular desktop PC was a similar power to the Atom in my netbook. Obviously, being a proper geek I run linux on it, but wine has consistently impressed me with it's ability to run windows software smoothly.

You may not want it for clever photo editing, but for basic stuff and typing while you veg out in front of the telly or sit by the fire netbooks are absolutely great and you can always use them for the basic processing and chuck data across to a real computer on a USB hard drive or whatever. Lately my netbook has seen a lot more use than my desktop...

statistics

This seems to be a 'prediction' along the same lines as the ones that say since 80% of car journeys could be done in a Fiat Panda powered by a couple of AA batteries, then 80% of all new car sales will soon be tiny electric ones.We all know how likely that is.

Maybe 90% of personal computer use can be handled by netbooks, but the other 10% can't, so either we'll all have two computers (I have 5 in working order at home, just for two of us) or people will buy decent-sized versatile laptops that are 'portable enough' for all uses.

Screen resolution

There is no need for netbooks to have inferior screen resolution to "normal" laptops. Smaller screen size, yes, smaller resolution, not necessarily. While most Atom-based netbooks in the past has had only 1024x640 (or less), most modern netbooks or smartbooks sport 1280x720 or better, which is pretty much the same as cheap 15" laptops.

Put ARM's in the supermarkets - computer distributors want too much money

I am typing this on a noisy Intel craptop. When I have real work to do, I ssh to an AMD desktop. I would like to upgrade to a silent ARM box that is too cheap to be worth nicking. If they really want my business: standardise laptop sizes so I can upgrade the main board or replace the keyboard or LCD panel with standard parts just like a desktop.

Consumer market, maybe?

90% of the consumer market might make sense. Consumers don't want to have a desk at home, and a netbook is perfectly suitable for the standard web browsing/email stuff, and cheaper than a laptop. For business purposes though, you want a decent sized screen and keyboard.

ARM vs. Intel

Me thinks ARM wants to eat Intel's lunch. The performance of ARM processors is increasing rapidly and ARM knows the SoC business.

ARM would probably benefit if applications' dependency on single-threaded performance decreased, i.e. if applications were better to utilize multiple processor cores. Why stop at one or two cores in a processor?

Intel leads the race in single-threaded performance which is great for legacy applications but at a cost (power consumption). Apple's coming iPad uses an ARM-based SoC which includes just about everything except RAM while Intel-based netbooks have multiple chips. Who is the winner in battery life?

When will they actually arrive?

Been waiting pretty much since the first x86 netbooks were released for ARM versions. Despite repeated encouraging noises from ARM and various manufacturers and plenty of demos at shows there aren't any useful units you can actually buy.

Apple look to be the first to enter the market with a sensible ARM CPU. Just a shame it has that awful iPhone OS on it (yes, I have an iPod Touch, yes I've used it, yes I still think it's awful and I won't be able to change it on the iPad which kills any usefulness in the device for me).

Innovation

If you read what he actually said, it was that the netbook market had room for a lot of innovation. So you people talking about screen resolution of 1024x600 are not getting the point at all. Most people think of a netbook as Intel's definition of a netbook. Intel tells it's customer's what they can and can't make. Atom netbooks are limited to 1024x600 because Intel says so. Atom netbooks can't do HD video or have HDMI out because Intel says so (and that's why they don't like NVIDIA with Ion). ARM and it's partners put no such restrictions on OEMs. It allows them to innovate in form factor. All Atom netbooks are essentially the same. But look at the diversity in smart phone. Now imagine that diversity in ARM-based netbooks. In the Intel world, everyone is forced to make essentially the same thing and compete only on price. The only winner is Intel - the OEM and customers lose (OEM's lose differentiation and revenue, customers lose choice).

Expect to see ARM-based netbooks in all sorts of form factors, including touch-screen and tablet format. Sure, some of them will flop, but others will fly and it'll be the market that decides which, not Intel. Who knows what the hit format will be?

Additions not replacements

Multiple systems, not replacements. There are a lot of us now out there with a number of computers in the family, each for different purposes. Netbooks are sort of like magazines lying around the sofa. A film comes on, you flick over to Rottentomatoes to see if its any good. Or just browse for houses/cars/books/gadgets while the footie is on the TV. Or to save buying the paper in the morning, you just pick up the netbook/iPhone by the bed and flick through the newspaper sites without bothering to get out of bed.

Cheap. Fast start up. Cool on your lap. Readable resolution for the web. WiFi. Simple to keep charged/long battery life. Don't know if it will be ARM or Intel, but it certainly isn't Windows. And as price is the key (sub $250), I'm not sure that it's Apple either.

Could be

If deivices in netbook size get more powerful, you won't want anything more. Many users already don't want to do any more computing than the netbook format allows. Playing videos... they may not even think of doing that. Anyway, sans DVD, my own Fizzbook Spin is still a pretty satisfactory video player. My other wish is speech recognition but I bought Windows XP...

When Microsoft launched Windows CE which became PocketPC which became Windows Mobile, it may have looked at first as though they didn't get it. Palm was in the market with monochrome stylus screen and good battery lifetime, Microsoft's product was clumsily graphical, in colour, processor hungry, would go maybe through lunch break away from the charge station. But hardware advances predictably would make Microsoft's portable platform tolerable and affordable, erase most of those disadvantages. Palm's line looked doomed and was, even before considering Microsoft's advertising budget, the power of the misapplied Windows name, andsSome Palm goofs customer-satisfaction-wise.

So likewise, netbooks are gonna grow up without having to grow big. And with touchscreen and speech, bye-bye keyboard. Who wants spend all that time to learn how to give yourself RSI over a working career? And also at home? Should I stick my neck out and predict that in my time, schoolkids won't even learn to write, they'll just dictate into electronic lipreading devices? Maybe not, we did still teach Latin in the UK for about 1500 years after the Roman legions went home... maybe not.

It's all about...

...the cloud isn't it? I'm sure there's a school of thought (one that I don't necessarily subscribe to I might add), that will see us all using low power (ARM based) netbooks to connect to the new swish Google Docs, use that new game streaming thingy for games and so on and so forth.