Microsoft's Windows 7 buy early plan builds to climax

Win 7 a success?

I would imagine Vista SP3 will be quite a success. General comments have been positive from users, even users which you would expect to be fairly negative, with linux and apple users being at worst a bit smug about their systems still being better in certain respects.

I've never run vista, taking the micky out of my brother in law for being an early adopter of 'fistula' over the last couple of years, but I am giving serious consideration to finally upgrading our little fleet of a dozen or so machines here at work to win 7. Of course I'm also experimenting with linux, and I think that will continue, as the tools for interoperability with win only apps get better and better for us non it specialists who have to manage it resources. So for us it is a tough decision, whereas a well executed vista would have been a 'no brainer' - which is bad news for Microsoft, as a certain number of small businesses will make the jump to linux instead, and I very much doubt many will come back - 'free' is quite compelling, as is 'no vendor lock in'.

But at least MS is a consideration again, whereas if 7 had been another vista, well we'd have continued buying licences from ebay for XP until we couldn't, and then moved to linux - no question. Which for MS isn't just windows licences gone, it's office licences, it's SQL licences - we've already deserted exchange - but without windows the rest aren't even an option.

Win7 is a big deal for Redmond.

"channel stuffing"

Channel stuffing is a bit like an addiction though. While you can keep it going, things may look OK, but the reality is that there is trouble being stored away, sometimes big trouble.

All these "early adopter discount" retail sales, the ones being touted as indicative of the success of Windows 7, are actually the opposite.They are people buying early because they know they won't want to pay the full retail price later. They are sales that Microsoft will not be able to profitably recover later.

Maybe that won't matter, because MS are still hoping to rely on their sweethearts in the Wintel-centric desktop and notebook markets (MS don't have sweethearts in the server market, and the netbook market is looking risky, and as for the non-x86 market, forget it).

Gift Giving

"Given this is the shop-tasitc season of Thanks Giving and New Year - a period that boosts revenues of companies serving consumer markets"

In the UK, we don't have Thanks Giving and we don't traditionally give gifts at New Year. We have a thing called Christmas (on 25th December) which is a time for buying lots of gifts, especially for family members. You should try it in America, I've never seen it mentioned in American sourced articles so I assume you don't have it there.

It started off as a religious celebration of the birth of Jesus Christ (Christ Mass) but it's turned into a simple, secular, booze, food and consumerism-fest. Whatever, consumer stuff sells in the run-up to Christmas.

Discounts, etc.

Discount 50-60% and watch those licenses move.

Here are a few theories to bat around: if Windows 7 does well in Q2, then they left money on the table by discounting; Windows 7 is overpriced; Microsoft captured the low-hanging fruit and license sales move back into normal or sub-normal numbers; all the beta/RC installers set up great word of mouth which set up great pre-sales which will set up more word of mouth and there will be rapid turnover from XP/Some Vista to Win7/Some XP at full cost (Ka-ching).

I lean towards overpriced, but I'm biased because I'm sitting on my hands until either I have to upgrade or I can go from Vista Business Pro to Win7 Business for about 60 bucks or so. I expect deals that will get me to spend will appear in February or March, if not sooner.

M$ just ain't going to last

A final peak from consumers believing the hype, then in a few years years an attempt to release version-next with the same tired old ideas, and that's it. I have come to the conclusion that Microsoft won't last more than the next four or five years. They are tired, old and out of ideas. Some mainstream OEMs are finally going to admit they are as sick of it as the rest of us and come out strongly allied with Linux for the desktop market.

Better start reading some linux books..