back to article Tiangong-1 re-entry window shrinks: Duck from March 30 to April 3

Boffins have refined their estimates of when Chinese space station Tiangong-1 will return to Earth, with the big bird's impact now predicted to happen between March 30 and April 3. With the orbit dipping below 225 km, the Fraunhofer Institute for High Frequency Physics and Radar Techniques (FHR) has also been able to capture …

  1. JeffyPoooh
    Pint

    Year of The Duck?

    "...duck from March 30 to April 3..."

    I could have sworn it was supposed to be Year of the Rooster.

    1. Gene Cash Silver badge

      Re: Year of The Duck?

      That was last year, actually.

  2. Drew 11

    "When that happens, its rotation will affect the likely impact zone, how the space station breaks up once it enters the atmosphere, and weather conditions at the time."

    The station's rotation will affect the weather?

    1. frank ly

      "The station's rotation will affect the weather?"

      If a space station flaps its solar panels in the upper atmosphere, then ....... oh, wait.

  3. redpawn

    Great images

    They look like a sci-fi movie. The video though looks as if China has discovered time space disruption zones near Earth. Perhaps these should be investigated by proper socialists.

    1. phuzz Silver badge

      Re: Great images

      "investigated by proper socialists"

      Is there any left? Or did you mean scientists?

  4. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    I'm not worried about this, if it is to cause a problem or loss of life then time travellers from the future will surely come to our time and stop it. Therefore if it doesn't we have proof of time travel.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Someone has come from the future to downvote me, further proof of their existence.

  5. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Prediction

    When the flaming remains are finally found, there will be a customs sticker describing the remains as a "Gift", with a value of $0.99.

    BTW, anyone know what is going on with UK Customs? I have had a <£100 value parcel stuck in clearing for well over a week.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Prediction

      That's what happens when you order porn from overseas.... :-)

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Prediction

        Who pays for porn??

        More importantly, who waits for a physical version of it to be posted??

        Which reminds me, I haven't done a recent back up on my terabyte archive of porn videos.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Prediction

          Why back it up when there's so much free content available online?

          Or did you mean your own homemade videos?

        2. Stoneshop
          Trollface

          Re: Prediction

          More importantly, who waits for a physical version of it to be posted??

          Well, given the speed of British broadband, a few CDs carried by camel* from Outer Mongolia may well be an improvement in speed.

          * actual camels not considered part of shipment, unless they consent.

    2. Alan Brown Silver badge

      Re: Prediction

      "I have had a <£100 value parcel stuck in clearing for well over a week."

      My record is a £10 item in there for over a month. I think they lost it down the back of the sofa for a while.

  6. This post has been deleted by its author

  7. Christoph

    Hopefully it will provide a spectacular show on TV for the British National Science Fiction Convention being held in Harrogate 30th March - 2nd April.

    1. This post has been deleted by its author

  8. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

    It's narrowing in on April 1st.

  9. JLV

    can these things be blown up?

    So first the risk it hitting anyone is really really low.

    But like space rocks, only big ones can survive atmospheric entry.

    You couldn't blow it up in space, that would just add to space junk.

    But could you blow it up once it started reentry? Make smaller pieces that would burn up entirely?

    Or would that be too complicated, risky beforehand, unhelpful (your smaller pieces would need to be guaranteed to burn up) and ultimately not worth the hassle for very small risks.

    Curious about mechanics (not really advocating) because we seem to go through these anxiety spells every so often.

    1. Timbo

      Re: can these things be blown up?

      "But could you blow it up once it started reentry? Make smaller pieces that would burn up entirely?"

      Why blow it up? You just need to get Thunderbird 2 to "help" it a little and it'll land harmlessly in the sand dunes !!

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxnX9KU7_50

      and whizz forwards to abt 3:40

    2. Pier Reviewer

      Re: can these things be blown up?

      Yes, but you really don’t want to.

      It’s travelling at around 7km/s, roughly the same speed as an ICBM during reentry. That’s a very hard target to hit. So hard, that the people tasked with designing a solution to that thorny problem decided throwing a bunch of nukes at the inbound object and blowing them up in front of it was the only viable solution.

      So, yes, they could blow it up, but it would involve popping a bunch of nukes inside the atmosphere. It doesn’t seem like a better proposition, would confirm defensive tech to “the other side”, and ppl tend to get twitchy when nukes get launched.

      Fingers crossed it doesn’t hurt any one. With a bit of luck, given it’s shape, speed and the fact it wasn’t designed to land most of it will be destroyed by the atmosphere. Ofc “most” doesn’t mean much to the folk it lands on :/

      1. JLV

        Re: can these things be blown up?

        to be clear: I meant, with onboard demolition charges.

        though... good practice for Star Wars ABMs: China blew up a stray in orbit for ASAT practice 10 years back or so. unfortunately that episode left some shrapnel in orbit.

  10. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Re. Tiangone 1

    Last I heard the impact zone included Michigan.

    Should be fine, no-one has ever been killed by space debris and the worst case scenario is that people have to stay indoors for an hour or two.

    Interestingly, there's rumors of an AIM-9 takedown if it does threaten anything mainly as a backup if the core doesn't fragment as expected.

    The most dangerous parts are the OMU tanks (full of UDMH) and oxygen cylinders, also batteries and outer truss support.

    I think the Shenzhou is long gone by now unless they left one attached which wouldn't make a lot of sense for such a small station.

    1. Alan Brown Silver badge

      Re: Re. Tiangone 1

      "The most dangerous parts are the OMU tanks (full of UDMH) "

      One would assume that one of the last commands sent would be "fire the bloody thrusters and vent all the hydrazine". Having it tumbling would make it more likely to break up.

      There really should be a policy of passively activated (heat?) demolition charges on large orbiting objects in case of uncontrollable reentry, even if that means only installing them after the last manned mission leaves (for manned orbiting missions)

      ENVIsat is proving to be similarly problematic. Hubble will be an even bigger issue.

      Skylab only broke up at 10km altitude and lots of big bits made it to the ground. In particular the 300kg door of the 1 ton (lead lined) aluminium film safe made it all the way to the ground along with the things you'd expect to "waft" like lightweight titanium tanks

  11. sanmigueelbeer
    Happy

    Just asking ...

    What happens if the satellite lands on American soil? Is it exempted from the Trump's tariffs?

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