back to article NEWSFLASH Now even science* says moneybags footballers are overpaid

Academic research is always best when it confirms your preconceptions, and a pair of data scientists from Lawrence Technological University have done just that. Writing in the International Journal of Computer Science in Sport, Lara Yaldo and Lion Shamir say they have created a computational model that will estimate how much a …

  1. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Way to bring their wages down

    Stop paying SKY

    Stop going to matches.

    Done.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Way to bring their wages down

      Your subject should say: How to make people poorer because you're jealous of their income.

    2. wolfetone Silver badge

      Re: Way to bring their wages down

      Stop paying Sky, and stop going to matches won't bring wages down.

      Sky's football viewership had already fallen nearly 20% at the beginning of last season, straight after the huge money they paid to secure the rights (you can actually "thank" BT for that one). The income that the Premier League generates is through TV deals but through deals with other broadcasters across the world. China, Spain etc.

      The TV money that comes in to the Premier League is so vast that every team in the Premiership could've set prices for tickets to every seat in the stadium for £20. No matter what seat, no matter what game, £20. Except that didn't happen, and the money is now syphoned off not really to the footballers themselves but to their agents. They're the parasite in the whole business. I think in the deal that's taken Neymar from Barcelona to PSG, Neymar's Dad who's his agent (I'm led to believe) has earned more money out of Barcelona than Messi has! That's insane!

      But ultimately every single person who goes to the football on a Saturday could decide not to go, and not bother turning up. You could have whole stadiums empty. The clubs would still make a huge fortune via the TV Deals from companies that aren't Sky. Then there's the money from shirt sales (which I don't think was taken in to account), the money from companies wanting to associate their brand with the likes of Ronaldo or Manchester United.

      For a bit of a laugh, Google the Manchest United wine advert that featured Wayne Rooney and Ryan Giggs. I'm telling you now, the desk you're sat at reading this is less wooden than Rooney's acting.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Way to bring their wages down

        You can blame the EU for it actually. They insisted that football rights be split over two companies, which means you now have to get two subscriptions to watch all ( except 3pm on a saturday, for some reason) kickoffs.

        I forgot about that wine advert - that was truly spectacular.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Way to bring their wages down

          Wow, four thumbs down for pointing out something that the EU did wrong. They really can do no evil in your blinkered eyes, can they?

          1. phuzz Silver badge

            Re: Way to bring their wages down

            The "not showing matches in pub at 3pm on a Saturday" part is a UK only idea. The Football League set it up in the 60's to prevent people from going down the pub to watch a match rather than going to their local club.

            Perhaps that's the reason for the downvotes.

            1. Anonymous Coward
              Anonymous Coward

              Re: Way to bring their wages down

              I know that, but the rule that you now have to pay two separate companies to watch all televised football was dreamed up by the EU.

              I now have to subscribe to Sky and BT. As a bonus, I can't get 4k BT Sports on Sky and I couldn't get 4k Sky Sports on BT when I was with their TV service.

    3. Prst. V.Jeltz Silver badge

      Re: Way to bring their wages down

      Stop paying SKY

      Stop going to matches

      It would be physically impossible for me to give Sky less money , or attend less matches. So, happy that non of their overpaid money has come from me , I dont mind how if other people fund them , although why they do is beyond me.

      1. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

        Re: Way to bring their wages down

        "happy that non of their overpaid money has come from me"

        Are you sure? You never bought anything that may have used some of the advertising budget at a match or on TV during a match? It might only be pennies, but it's almost certainly not nothing at all. And even those few pennies from million of people mount up.

        Like you, I never watch the footie, but I have no doubt some of my cash ends up in their pockets one way or another.

        1. imanidiot Silver badge

          Re: Way to bring their wages down

          I know I'm paying my local footy club, even if its just my tax dollars going to police/riot control and paying for damages after "overenthusiastic" "fans" "redecorate" the town.

          1. Aladdin Sane
            Headmaster

            Re: Attend less matches

            Fewer.

  2. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Did they include how much the crowds are willing to pay to see them?

    1. John Robson Silver badge

      "Did they include how much the crowds are willing to pay to see them?"

      Yes they did - although not in the statistical analysis - because are you willing to pay to see $soccer_resource^Hplayer or do you want to pay to watch $soccer_business^Hteam?

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        If the amount goes up when the player joins the team...

        1. John Robson Silver badge

          Maybe that's just because they person they replaced was unpopular?

          You can't make a single change...

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            You can't make a single change...

            No, but you can extract multiple data points from looking at the histories of other players, enough to combine several weak indicators into a strong predictor which is exactly what this system should be doing.

    2. ecofeco Silver badge

      And thats problem right there.

      The fans are paying the bottom line. And gladly.

      Who would not take that money?

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      "Did they include how much the crowds are willing to pay to see them?"

      It appears not, but then neither did they factor in their cheatingi, actingii and arguing with the ref abilities.

      Professional is football entertainment, not sport, hence the ridiculous wages.

      i for a non-contact game there's a lot of grabbing of other players kit.

      ii the way they can pretend to be tripped up and sustain what appears to be a life-threatening injury would put a professional actor to shame.

      1. Anonymous Coward
  3. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    A can of worms has opened

    The theory of value is a crazy trip that will send you spiralling though all of 20th century philosophy, leaving you destitute in some dingy French bar drinking absinthe.

    Best just to skip all that and accept that socialism is best.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: A can of worms has opened

      It's certainly simpler. It's also simpler to work out what you're having for tea under socialism - nothing.

      Finding black markets for food is a good pastime.

      1. codejunky Silver badge

        Re: A can of worms has opened

        @ disgustedoftunbridgewells

        Not sure why your getting downvoted. Have an upvote from me

    2. Sgt_Oddball
      Windows

      Re: A can of worms has opened

      Some of us would rather drink absinthe in a dingy French bar than watch football.. so it's all relative

    3. Dave 15

      Re: A can of worms has opened

      Absinthe was one of the rare decent things the French gave the world....

      1. hmv

        Re: A can of worms has opened

        Er ... Absinthe originated in Switzerland.

        1. earl grey
          Pint

          Re: A can of worms has opened

          Anyway, since it's a can of worms, you may as well have wormwood.

        2. deadlockvictim

          Absinthe

          To quote Oscar Wilde (maybe, sure why not), 'Absinthe makes the heart grow fonder'.

          1. Sgt_Oddball
            Windows

            Re: Absinthe

            I've also found it's been known to make the world go sideways. Though that might have been a matter of perspective ...

    4. hmv

      Re: A can of worms has opened

      And a jolly good time it was too!

  4. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Harry Kane gets more than 15k/week surely? That must be a typo.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Quick google reveals Kane's salary is probaly ~£100k/week ... so "estimate of worth" is pretty accurate.

      1. Aladdin Sane

        Depends on the period that the analysis covered.

  5. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Proposed new Reg unit of time

    A bit OT, but since were talking about Pogbas, I would like to propose a new Reg unit of time, the "Mooch", equivalent to 10 days.

    1. Swarthy

      I see a broken empty shell of a man

      Scaramucc', Scaramucc' he did the fandango

      His boss sent a Tweet'ning

      very very frightening me

  6. Daedalus

    Saber rattling

    US baseball fans will recognise this as Sabermetrics applied to footer. Sadly, despite the book and movie "Moneyball", baseball salaries and bonuses continue to skyrocket.

    1. I ain't Spartacus Gold badge

      Re: Saber rattling

      As a counter-example, when David Beckham moved from Manchester United to Real Madrid, something like £30-£50 million of merchandising sales went with him. Taking Madrid to number one in the club turnover league, and knocking Man U down to no. 2.

      So even if you accepted that you could account for all the possible variables with a statistical algorithm, in a dynamic team-game like football - you're still left having to account for marketing and kit sales.

      Stats are bound to be more important in games like baseball and cricket, which are also team games, but much more focused on the performance of the individuals separately.

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Saber rattling

      "Sadly, despite the book and movie "Moneyball", baseball salaries and bonuses continue to skyrocket."

      Which might have to do with the fact that no moneyball team has won a championship, while the teams that overpay continue to win the World Series each year.

      1. Ivan Vorpatril

        Re: Saber rattling

        Last year Cleveland played the Cubs. Those two took Moneyball to the next level.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Saber rattling

          Yes. The Cubs took moneyball to the next, massively salary level.

          And Cleveland did not win, although they should have.

  7. John 110
    Coffee/keyboard

    I'm sorry I read this now...

    I knew they were overpaid, I just didn't appreciate by how much. Surely a weekly wage that's 3 times my yearly wage is just an obscenity.

    I'm going to throw up now.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: I'm sorry I read this now...

      The chap in Nambia says your wage is obscene too.

      1. Rich 11

        Re: I'm sorry I read this now...

        The chap in Nambia says your wage is obscene too.

        Quite possibly. However you also have to take local prices into account (which apparently are about a third lower in Namibia than in the UK). It looks like the average salary in Namibia is the equivalent of £14400, where the UK's is about £26000. So it's not as great a difference as you might think.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: I'm sorry I read this now...

          A more important comparison is that life expectancy in Nambia is less than 65 years. Whilst money doesn't buy healthy, it makes a good down payment.

          1. Cynic_999

            Re: I'm sorry I read this now...

            "

            A more important comparison is that life expectancy in Nambia is less than 65 years.

            "

            A very misleading figure which is in fact nothing to do with "life expectancy" but is the average lifespan of a large sample of people who were born in the same year. But the average lifespan has little to do with life expectancy. Consider that if 600 out of 1000 people born in a certain year died before their first birthday, but the other 400 lived to be 120, the average lifespan would be reported as being 48. Yet the fact is that in such a place anyone who survives to adulthood would have the expectation of a much longer life than in the West.

            Many people are misled into thinking that people of a few centuries ago had short lives and died in middle age because the average lifespan is reported as being so low. It is the high infant mortality rate that brings the figure down - survive childhood and your life expectancy was not that bad at all.

            Galileo lived until 77, Copernicus until 70, and Newton died aged 84. Hippocrates was 90 (370 BC)

        2. Rich 11

          Re: I'm sorry I read this now...

          It looks like the average salary in Namibia is the equivalent of £14400, where the UK's is about £26000.

          I didn't make it clear that these are exchange rate equivalents; in Namibia the average salary will buy the equivalent of £21600 in the UK.

    2. Cynic_999

      Re: I'm sorry I read this now...

      "

      Surely a weekly wage that's 3 times my yearly wage is just an obscenity.

      "

      There are thousands of 3rd World workers who could say exactly the same about yourself.

      1. John 110

        Re: I'm sorry I read this now...

        Yeah, but I'm not living in a different country (with different costs-of-living etc) from overpaid football players.

    3. handleoclast
      Coat

      Re: I'm sorry I read this now...

      I expect downvotes from those who read only the first line or two of a post before voting. And from those who read all the way through to the end. Some of the bits in the middle are OK, though. :)

      Football bores me. I'd rather watch 90 minutes of a slow-motion replay of paint drying. So from my personal perspective, the players are all vastly overpaid. Don't get me wrong, I hate all sport and consider football to be more interesting (on a relative scale) than most other sports. On an absolute scale of interesting, though, I'd put it in negative numbers.

      That said, we all have different tastes, and there are enough people who like football that players deserve paying some amount of money. So I don't begrudge them a salary.

      Once you accept that they deserve payment, you also have to acknowledge that they have a limited career span. Eventually, their body is no longer able to perform at a top level, or they get caught in a "spit roast" scandal, or whatever. And because many of them left school as early as possible in order to go into football, they have no qualifications or experience that would allow them to enter any career more demanding than one where they repeatedly ask "Do you want fries with that?" So they try to earn as much as possible during that limited career span so they can afford to drink themselves to death in their old age.

      So the question is, should they be protected from circumstance such that they don't have to work in MuckDonald's or sign on at the Jobcentre++ once their career is over? Most people's jobs don't provide them with that luxury, so if you're an egalitarian you'd answer no, they made their bed and should piss in it. On the other hand, if you're a free-marketer you'd say that people are prepared to pay enough for matches/TV for that to happen, so you'd answer yes.

      I don't begrudge them their extra money, even though some of them aren't bright enough to hang on to it for post-career income and instead suck it up their nose. What really annoys me is the celebrity these twats get after their footballing days are over. I really don't care about non-entity Becks and his marriage to non-entity Posh, or the state of Gazza's liver or any of the rest of it. I'd be happy for them to have all that money if they then disappeared into obscurity. Hell, I'd even chip in a few quid of my own if Becks, Posh, Gazza and the like would just fuck off out of the news.

  8. defiler

    Ten grand a week?

    Those poor bastards. How do they manage to put a crust on the table?

    1. Eddy Ito

      Re: Ten grand a week?

      Worse, it's only seasonal work. I'm amazed they're able to save up enough to make it through the summer months.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Ten grand a week?

        I heard a rumour, I don't know if it's true, that Karl Oyston ( Blackpool FC's owner ) had the players contracts written so they were only paid during the football season.

        It sounds believable for Oyston, but I don't know.

      2. fandom

        Re: Ten grand a week?

        You only think you are joking.

        In the US studies have shown that shortly after they retire, nearly four of five NFL players are bankrupt or under financial stress. Joblessness and divorce are the main reasons. It’s marginally better in the National Basketball Association, where after retirement nearly two of three players are broke within five years.

        And that includes players who made tens of millions while playing.

        1. graeme leggett Silver badge

          Re: Ten grand a week?

          According to BBC Radio 4 More or Less (podcast version of 10 July) Stephen Curry of the NBA is to be paid $200 million (I shit you not) over 5 years. And analysis suggests he's underpaid compared to the value he is expected to bring to his team in that period.

          1. Prst. V.Jeltz Silver badge

            Re: Ten grand a week?

            "And that includes players who made tens of millions while playing"

            I can fully believe that, but I'm having a hard time finding any sympathy really.

        2. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Ten grand a week?

          It's getting better. There are programs available to teach some finance and fiscal responsibility to the players these days. Slowly it's changing from a culture of throwing the college kid a million bucks and watching as they blow it all on parties, fast cars, and faster women and then trying to maintain that lifestyle after they're done playing.

          The thing is, a good deal of it is something that should be taught in high school. I'm sure there's plenty of room to drop one elective course and add in a mandatory class in basic finances. It doesn't need to be so in depth as to dissect a companies beta as it compares to its short ratio but it should at least cover basics like interest rates, inflation, and compounding in addition to balancing a check book.

    2. ecofeco Silver badge

      Re: Ten grand a week?

      Struggling to be sure.

  9. -tim

    How much are they taxed?

    There has been some talk down under about getting sports people to pay back what the government invested in them once they start making lots of money. It is much like the university repayment system currently in use. Of course the government just offered some nice tax breaks for footballers due to "their fame" so I don't see it getting enough traction to get the kids at the local youth football club taking out footy loans.

    1. I ain't Spartacus Gold badge

      Re: How much are they taxed?

      There apparently used to be a lot of shennanigans with paying a portion of players' wages into foreign trusts and companies ten years ago, but I think most of that's been stopped now. It would be funny if they were on PAYE, but I assume they're contractors. There also used to be a distinction in the way players got paid for "image rights", merchandising cash and their playing wages - another area ripe for possible tax exploitation.

      There was some sort of system to recognise that foreign players who came here to play Wimbledon say, probably shouldn't be paying tax here, as they're not really "working" here, so much as playing a 2 week international tournament that happens to be in South London. As I understand it, this got abused and so was changed.

      But that left people complaining about having to pay 45% tax to the UK government on their Wimbledon winner's cheque. Threats of foreign sportspeople not coming here for events etc. I've lost track of what the situation is now.

  10. Dave 15

    Why nto pay people their useful contribution to the world

    Then politicians, footballers, actors and the rest would reap their true value... zero

    People who do positive things actually get paid.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Why nto pay people their useful contribution to the world

      We would need some sort of system to define what is useful. Perhaps how much other people are willing to pay for their services?

      Hang on, that's the system we have now.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Why nto pay people their useful contribution to the world

        Dear disgusted,

        I was going to reply, but I'll settle for a downvote instead

        Your friendly neighbourhood NHS employee

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Why nto pay people their useful contribution to the world

          If you don't like your pay, do something else. If you're getting more than money out of your job, consider it part of your renumeration.

          Stop blaming the system for you choosing to earn less money than you could because you enjoy the work.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: Why nto pay people their useful contribution to the world

            Good grief, you're right. OK I'm off to be a professional football player.

            Laters.

            1. Anonymous Coward
              Anonymous Coward

              Re: Why nto pay people their useful contribution to the world

              If you could just go and be a professional footballer, their pay would be considerably lower because of competition. Most people could go and be a nurse if so inclined, all they need is training.

          2. John 110

            Re: Why nto pay people their useful contribution to the world

            I don't believe Mr Anon up there was complaining that he didn't earn enough, I suspect he was commenting on the fact that society appears to value a bloke who can kick a ball goodish over someone who assists in saving lives for a living.

            1. Anonymous Coward
              Anonymous Coward

              Re: Why nto pay people their useful contribution to the world

              But that's a stupid comparison. He's comparing somebody who is near the top of their field with somebody who's an average nurse or junior doctor ( I assume ) .

              If he were one of the top cardiologists in the world, he would see his pay rise commensurably. But he's not.

              In the grand scheme of things, an average nurse is comparable with a league two player - better than most at what they do, but not so good at it that their skills are very rare.

    2. Aladdin Sane

      Re: Why nto pay people their useful contribution to the world

      Politicians - If you think your local politicians don't do anything positive, then vote in somebody else. It is through politics that we enjoy a stable country with a good economy and a health service that is the envy of the world (despite its failings).

      Actors - Most actors struggle to earn a crust. There are a handful of stars who earn megabucks, but they are definitely in the minority. What you seem to be suggesting is that the arts aren't worth putting money towards, and for this I call you an idiot.

      Sportsmen/women - Nothing brings this country together like a national team doing well or a big sports event. Wimbledon, London 2012, RWC 2003, Wendyball 1966. Even gallantly failing near the end like Italia '90 or Euro '96 united the country.

  11. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Transfer function

    Not having read the paper I may be missing something, but it looks to me as if the thing that is wrong is the transfer function. With pay for certain jobs, scarcity makes the people at the top very much higher paid than you would expect on a linear transfer. Taking the law as an example, if QC A is somehow objectively 2% better than QC B, that doesn't mean A will win 51% of cases versus B. It may mean he will win 99% of cases.

    The government follows this rule, see the result of a recent referendum, and it explains why the price of ever smaller advantage goes up so much faster.

  12. Flakk
    Trollface

    Did I Miss Something?

    Did the researchers fail to take the all-important "egregiously faking foul injuries" variable into account?

  13. Zebo-the-Fat

    It's a lot of money to play a bloke who just kicks a ball around a field

    1. Steve K

      There is a double-standard in much of this - high salaries/bonuses paid to TV presenters/bankers etc. are generally perceived as worse/undeserved/more evil than that paid to footballers.

      It is all market forces and - in the end - the entities involved must me making enough money after paying these costs to warrant it (although certainly in the football side of things doubts are being voiced about the sustainability/affordability to clubs of the salary levels)

      1. small and stupid

        Footballers abilities are frequently and publicly tested and their pay comes from willing consumers.

        So:

        Bankers, well, fuck knows what they do all day , and they fuck up things for everyone.

        Presenters: I am very sure that Messi is a much better footballe than A N Other, Melchester reserves.

        But I dont really know that Gary Lineker is any better at presenting MoTD than A N Other personable retired ex pro.

  14. Sparkypatrick

    Crocked in Tunbridge Wells

    There will be difficulties in getting accurate player earnings, as many clubs are privately held; but Spuds are publicly listed AFAIK, so no real excuse for not knowing that Kane is currently on £100,000 a week. A bargain, apparently.

  15. Inspector71
    Paris Hilton

    Rules about to change again.

    If the Neymar deal to PSG goes through then we will be in another dimension. £197 million and a salary of £500,000 a week.

    Icon: too rich for even Paris. (see what I did there...)

  16. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    BBC

    Any chance they could analyse BBC salaries?

  17. ICPurvis47
    Flame

    Stop paying them anything at all.

    After all, they are *PLAYING* a *GAME*. If I want to play a game of most sorts (and they definitely do not include football), I have to pay to use the facilities provided for me. If I want to use the local climbing wall in our leisure centre, I have to pay £6.50 for an hour's session. If they want to chase a ball around the pitch, let them pay for their entertainment.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Stop paying them anything at all.

      If you can convince several tens of millions of people that they want to watch you climb that wall then you will be as rich as Neymar.

      They are entertainers and the top ones are very bloody good at what they do.

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