back to article Scary news: Asteroid may pass Earth by just 6,880km in October

NASA's preparing another round asteroid defence tests, thanks to the October fly-by of a rock that may come within a cosmic whisker of the Earth. Update: The figures below were later revised by scientists. See our followup story, here. The original article continues below. Asteroid 2012 TC4 is said rock, and is between ten …

  1. Phil Kingston

    Does Bruce Willis know?

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      It's not big enough to call in Bruce.

    2. Mark 85

      Bruce died.... but there's 5 (I think) surviving crewmembers available but no "armored" space shuttles. So we're effectively screwed if someone's calculations are off.

      1. wolfetone Silver badge

        "Bruce died"

        I thought that, but then I was watching Die Hard and he seemed to be alright? Had more hair on him too, somehow.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          If you are ever unlucky enough to watch 'Hudson Hawk' you'll know Bruce Willis has repeatedly died in front of the camera.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            I don't get it...

            I thought Hudson Hawk was a funny over the top theatrical comedy (It has Richard E. Grant ffs), and was most surprised when I watched an interview with Bruce Willis, and he was asked what one film did he wish he had never made, and surprise surprise, he named Hudson Hawk.

            I lost all respect for Bruce Willis in that moment....

    3. kezersoze

      Bruce

      No, but Robert Duvall has been called into NASA for a secret briefing

  2. Winkypop Silver badge
    Flame

    NASA's impression of 2012 TC4

    Needs to get a better press agent. That impression is rather unflattering.

    Hopefully 2012 TC4 will remain unflatterning...

  3. Anonymous Coward
    Alien

    It's those damned Arachnids again...

    I'll have to run down to Costco and get a 5 gallon drum of Raid.

    1. CrazyOldCatMan Silver badge

      Re: It's those damned Arachnids again...

      Ahhh.. Starship Troopers.

      A fine example of a book showing the futility of war then co-opted to make a film gloryfying war..

      (And not even a very good one. About 20 minutes was all I could bear to watch. It joins a select few films that even my regularly-suspended disbelief could cope with..)

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: It's those damned Arachnids again...

        I wouldn't call the book anti-war by any stretch of the imagination. Basically the book not-so-intimated that humanity was going to have to wipe out the Arachnids, rather than try to find any basis to communicate and reach a peace. Hence the 5 gallon drum of Raid.

        The book was much superior to the movie, but I appreciated the movie as both a satire of war movie cliches and a satire of the media state. Whoever ran the TV network in the Starship Troopers future is basically using the Fox News/MSNBC/RTV playbook from today's cable news industry.

        1. Triggerfish

          Re: It's those damned Arachnids again...

          I thought the book somewhat glorified the war and the idea you weren't a citizen unless you fought, where as the film was a satire.

          1. theModge

            Re: It's those damned Arachnids again...

            I thought the book somewhat glorified the war and the idea you weren't a citizen unless you fought, where as the film was a satire.

            I concur. I've heard arguments that Heinlein wrote starship troopers to show us a dystopia and that he wished to show us what a bad idea a society that really venerated the military to that degree was. Maybe I'm just not literary enough, but I just didn't get that feeling from him. He wanted snappy uniforms and synchronised marching and he wanted it now.

            The film, conversely, dropped in a couple of little bits of subtle satire (the recruiting adds for example) in-between and otherwise fun action film, which is most fun if not entirely sober.

      2. handleoclast

        Re: It's those damned Arachnids again...

        I remember, with great fondness, a review that appeared on Usenet:

        Loosely based on the back cover artwork of a book by Robert Heinlein.

        1. MyffyW Silver badge

          Re: It's those damned Arachnids again...

          Communal unisex showers always struck me as a terrible idea...

          1. BongoJoe

            Re: It's those damned Arachnids again...

            Also a bad idea in Alien 3, I believe, so there's clearly a theme evolving here.

      3. My Alter Ego

        Re: It's those damned Arachnids again...

        Maybe it just me, but I really enjoyed both. Plus, I felt that the over-the-top jingoism was satire. Same goes for the sequel, where the recruiter coos at the baby and says "we need fresh meat for the grinder".

        Slightly related - I once described the film as "Paul Verhoeven's Starship Troopers with gratuitous violence and nudity". I was corrected by somebody saying "the gratuitous violence and nudity description is redundant".

        Would you like to know more?

      4. Alan Brown Silver badge

        Re: It's those damned Arachnids again...

        "About 20 minutes was all I could bear to watch."

        It's a pity you didn't. It's deliberately set in a future where the Nazis won(*) and in the style of Triumph of the Will. Once you get into the meat of the piece it's clear that it's an antiwar film.

        (*) Didn't you notice everyone was blonde and aryan? Including the troopers from Buenos Ares?

      5. Rustbucket

        Re: It's those damned Arachnids again...

        You've got that completely backwards. The film satirized the militaristic jingoistic book. Remember that Starship Troopers would have been written during the heights of the cold war, with the Arachnids standing in for those dirty commies, boo hiss.

  4. LaeMing
    Mushroom

    Damn!

    Missed again!

    1. Alistair
      Windows

      Re: Damn!

      @LaeMing:

      Damn time travellers from 2318.

  5. BongoJoe

    Er, what defences?

    See title

    1. Pascal Monett Silver badge

      Indeed

      Not only that, but when the article says "test how ready we are for a potential impact" - well I can answer that : we're not.

      Any major asteroid strike in a populated area will just be mayhem, pure and simple. If we have advanced warning, there might be a way to evacuate, but given that this particular rock can pass 6,800km close or more than 200,000km away, if it did hit somewhere I don't think we would have the slightest idea of where before it was way too late to do anything about it.

      As of now, our only chance for surviving an asteroid impact is that the asteroid itself is too small to do too much damage (with all due respect to the thousands who could potentially be killed even by a small one).

      1. Alan Brown Silver badge

        Re: Indeed

        "Any major asteroid strike in a populated area will just be mayhem, pure and simple"

        Airbursting fragments are worse, believe it or not.

        Check out the simulations at https://craterhunter.wordpress.com/the-planetary-scaring-of-the-younger-dryas-impact-event/a-thermal-airburst-impact-structure/

    2. DropBear
      Trollface

      Re: Er, what defences?

      "Er, what defences? "

      The one where we collectively shake our fists at it, yelling "we know you're there!"

      1. Destroy All Monsters Silver badge

        Re: Er, what defences?

        "Er, what defences? "

        Prayer! Pray really hard!

      2. Captain DaFt

        Re: Er, what defences?

        "Er, what defences? "

        The one where we collectively shake our fists at it, yelling "we know you're there!"

        Relevant Simpsons clip

  6. TheElder
    Mushroom

    Something to work on

    It would be quite useful if we could move it a little closer. Maybe aim it at North Korea.

    1. Tom 7

      Re: Something to work on

      I think the NKs are the only people with one ready to launch!

      1. TheElder

        Re: Something to work on

        The problem is the the NK leader is a suicide bomber. As for the other trumpet the joint cheese are already ignoring him. The button is nothing more than the sort of buttons I can create. It must have write only permission.

  7. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    A lot of these rocks, as reported in the Daily Minor Planet newsletter, aren't spotted until they are a few days out from doing their (hopefully) flyby. So, unless someone has something ready to go, we're still basically screwed.

    Now if someone has the technology that's fairly good to go, it might be nice to practice nudging/obliterating a few of those rocks. As this really is rocket science, time to bone up on it. For practice.

    SMoD {Sweet Meteor of Death} still hasn't shown up in the neighborhood, dammit! Look at what got into the Whitehouse.

    1. lorisarvendu

      We should only try a "nudge" if it's definitely going to hit, because "trying it out" on one that is going to safely miss might result in it's next pass being "on target".

      Though of course then we'll be able to give it another nudge, and since we've had practice we'll be more confident that it will work.

      I don't know which scenario is for the best...

    2. Alan Brown Silver badge

      "A lot of these rocks, as reported in the Daily Minor Planet newsletter, aren't spotted until they are a few days out from doing their (hopefully) flyby"

      At lot more aren't spotted until a few days AFTER their flyby. They're dark and we're blindsided by the sun as they come from that direction. They show up as they go past and are intensely backlit for a few days.

  8. Florida1920

    Your fries order has been upsized.

    Looks like a giant, peeled potato.

  9. tedleaf

    And when the one went bang over Russia,everyone was looking at one that was already known about,I wonder if the same thing will happen again..

  10. Pen-y-gors

    Illustration

    hopefully not to scale.

  11. Pen-y-gors

    Job title

    "NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office" - that sounds really, really cool. Something out of Thunderbirds, Space 1999 or Fireball XL5.

    Completely meaningless of course, but still amazingly cool.

  12. Rich 11

    Context

    Just to put the distance into context, 6800km is approximately one Earth radius. If it does come that close, it'll be about as close to the humans directly underneath it as those humans are to the centre of the Earth.

    1. BongoJoe

      Re: Context

      I read that as humans IN the centre of the earth...

      1. CrazyOldCatMan Silver badge

        Re: Context

        I read that as humans IN the centre of the earth...

        Shh.. The Illuminati will come and take you away if you even hint about their secret base in <No Carrier>

      2. The elephant in the room
        Black Helicopters

        Re: Context

        #IronSky2

    2. allthecoolshortnamesweretaken

      Re: Context

      Anyone up for starting a pool on whether 2012 TC4 will knock out one or more geosynchronous satellites?

      1. Ragarath

        Re: Context

        I'll go for it won't, space is big, mind-bogglingly big. The chance of a 10m asteroid hitting a sub 10m lump of metal in a corridor of mind-bogglingly big (can't be arsed to look it up) is very, very small.

        But then again those 1 in a million chances do happen 9 times out of 10.

        1. dc_m

          Re: Context

          Almost a Douglas Adams reference

          Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space

          upvote for you!

    3. kmac499

      Re: Context

      Even closer when you take the Earths orbital speed into account of approx 30km/s.

      So Earth covers the 6800km in about 3mins 45secs

      1. BongoJoe

        Re: Context

        <emEven closer when you take the Earths orbital speed into account of approx 30km/s.

        So Earth covers the 6800km in about 3mins 45secs</em>

        Which has qualified as the most chilling post of the year*.

        (* or as the Left Pondians would say: "Chillingmost")

    4. TheElder
      Mushroom

      Re: Context

      It is plenty close enough to take out some possibly very interesting satellites...

      I see that was mentioned but I was thinking of something else. Reactors in space exist.

      1. Alan Brown Silver badge

        Re: Context

        "Reactors in space exist."

        Only 1 that the USA or Russians admit to (and it's been dead since the 1960s).

        Radiothermal decay generators aren't reactors and in any case if any of them (or the reactor) burned up in the atmosphere the additional radioactivity would be barely noticeable.

        1. TheElder

          Re: Context

          NK has already launched a satellite. The payload is plenty high enough to handle an enhanced 6 KT EMP system. What is there to stop anyone else? People signing little bits of paper? Ever heard of a bad cheque?

        2. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Context

          The Soviet Union launched a good number of reactors on their US-A ocean surveillance radar satellites (RORSATs). Their radar technology meant the satellite had to be in a very low orbit which precluded draggy solar panels, so they put a nuclear reactor onboard.

          At the end of the mission, the spent core was meant to be fired into a disposal orbit, that didn't always happen. At least two cores returned to Earth, one in the South Atlantic, the other redecorated about 120,000km2 of North Canada with intensely radioactive debris of which only about 1% has been recovered.

          Of the remainder, several spilled their liquid metal coolant which now contributes to orbital debris, at least one appears to be disintegrating in its graveyard orbit, and when they were working they were nightmares for gamma ray astronomers.

          Fortunately, none have been launched since the late 1980s.

  13. wolfetone Silver badge
    Alien

    It doesn't matter.

    Nibiru is supposed to be popping by to say hello a month before this asteroid, they'll sort it out for us.

    1. A. Coatsworth Silver badge
      Mushroom

      Nibiru will appear in

      2000

      May 2003

      December 2012

      September 2017

      Fashionably late, is she?

  14. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

    From the NASA article: "while we know the orbit of 2012 TC4 well enough to be absolutely certain it will not impact Earth, we haven’t established its exact path just yet,”

    Somehow I don't find the last bit entirely reassuring about the first.

    1. Pen-y-gors

      It's not that bad. They're just saying that limited observations give a range of values for the orbital parameters, but none of them involve asteroid and planet attempting to occupy the same volume of space at the same time. Just how far off is the question to resolve. Reasonably re-assuring I think.

      1. TheElder

        The n body problem does not have an analytical solution. The numerical solutions converge very slowly. However the 2 body problem does have a solution. The closer it is to Earth the more the other bodies may be ignored.

        Personally, I very much prefer the 2 body problem since convergence is easy to calculate and can be as fast as you wish (or slower).

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Go

      @Doctor Syntax

      NASA knows the asteroid's path perfectly! If something happens, its not their fault that Earth swerved right into its way!

      1. Emmeran

        My brother had a car + tree situation like that.

  15. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Chelyabinsk was the test run.

    This one WILL (be nudged so as to) impact on Moscow ;-)

    1. larokus

      Re: Chelyabinsk was the test run.

      using a Soyuz rocket?

  16. allthecoolshortnamesweretaken
  17. Vinyl-Junkie
    Mushroom

    Footfall...

    ..just sayin'

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Footfall...

      You never know lol One of the crazier conspiracy theories out there is that the USAF actually built an Orion class orbital battleship during the sixties at Area 51.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Footfall...

        And then they realized they couldn't launch it without losing Area 51. So they piled a lot of rocks and sand on it, with a water tank stuck on top, and no one is the wiser.

  18. Emmeran

    Bruce Willis looks like me

    Only far, far richer. Oh and he's shorter also, but otherwise he's a dead ringer for me.

  19. JJKing
    IT Angle

    Big margin for error.

    Considering that geosync orbits are around 36,000kms and the rock is estimated to pass between 6,800 and 270,000kms away from us, has any thought been given to those targets sitting in the 36,000km area? If it clobbers one then I guess there won't be space debris whizzing round every 90 minutes* to clobber other geosync satellites.

    *Scientific reference, space documentary Gravity.

    1. larokus

      Re: Big margin for error.

      Ah yes, that lovely documentary showcasing how our brave modern days astronauts most often jet around open space untethered.

      Apparently astronauts of the future are a cowardly bunch, remaining largely tethered in their attempt to save Mark Watney from certain death on Mars. (save for that ballsy chemist)

  20. TheElder

    The real question...

    If we do have a big one that we only see in the last day or two is it then time to get every fucking thing done you meant to do?

    1. LaeMing
      Unhappy

      Re: The real question...

      No, because once you are dead, it will have been pointless anyway.

      Bit like existence in general, actually.

      1. Vinyl-Junkie
        Pint

        Re: it will have been pointless anyway

        My, aren't you a cheery soul!

  21. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    If the range of peri-rock distances is between 6,800 and 270,000 km then presumably the likely actual distance is around 130,000 km - I guess that doesn't sound quite so interesting.

  22. mrobaer

    But can we afford it?

    I remember reading that NASA/ESA were scheduling a mission to attempt to redirect asteroids. I'm too lazy to find out the original article but did find this: https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/01/19/future-of-asteroid-deflection-mission-to-be-decided-soon/

    Will we really die because our fearless leaders couldn't afford to protect us? Or is it cheaper to build bunkers/arks for the elite a la Deep Impact & 2012?

  23. Citizen99

    Good question from the Wife - "Will it tilt us?" to which I think the answer is "It will make the earth vary its orbit a little bit - the amount To Be Calculated".

  24. Stevie

    Bah!

    Our "asteroid defenses" involve "having a look" at the space mountain of certain death as it whooshes by? They gave the job to the Telescope Brigade? The same danglers that so decisively moved on the vexing question of Pluto not being a real planet?

    Oh ffs!

    Lasers! Atomic warheads! Space shuttles full of oil rig workers!

  25. DanceMan
    Mushroom

    The Threat from Outer Space

    Some have worried about a potential Marvin the Martian showing up and wreaking destruction on humanity, but it turns out our immediate danger is just nature hurling (admittedly big) rocks at us.

    Where's our galactic firehose?

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