back to article SpaceX delays manned Dragon capsule launch

Elon Musk's SpaceX has delayed the first manned launch of its Dragon capsule intended to carry astronauts into orbit by one year. SpaceX intends to send astronauts to the International Space Station via the capsule, which has already made several supply deliveries to the station. The first launch was originally scheduled for …

  1. A K Stiles

    Safety first

    I'm glad they're willing to take the time to properly figure out what went wrong, and hopefully no dubious cover-ups / management overruling engineering decisions, but I really want to see them / someone get on with the space exploration thing!

    1. danR2

      Re: Safety first

      "willing to take the time to properly figure out what went wrong,"

      I think they were told to take the time. They should have taken the time years ago to consider what could possibly go wrong with putting supercooled LOX in significant proximity to even colder liquid He.

      1. James Hughes 1

        Re: Safety first

        They were not told to take the time AFAIK. They REALLY want to know what went wrong and ensure it doesn't happen again. So they are spending the time. From sources in the know, NASA have been impressed by their due diligence in the matter, and NASA are very difficult to impress. The actual fault was something, and I paraphrase Musk here, that had never been seen before in the history of spaceflight, so I am of the (relatively uninformed opinion) that this particular freaky circumstance was unpredictable within any sane timescale.

        For those interested in more information, can I suggest the NasaSpaceflight forum, lots of knowledgable people on there including SpaceX employees.

        1. danR2

          Re: Safety first

          NASA notwithstanding, it's the FAA that needs to be convinced that SpaceX is fit to launch. They're the ones that sign off on it, not NASA. Musk was already confident for launch this month. Something change? FAA not convinced that Musk is really convinced?

      2. Destroy All Monsters Silver badge
        Windows

        Re: Safety first

        > could possibly go wrong with putting supercooled LOX in significant proximity to even colder liquid He.

        What *could* go wrong?

        Chtulhu rising?

  2. asphytxtc

    Actually less about the Amosposion I think.

    I think this has virtually nothing to do with the AMOS-6 anomaly back in September but more to do with design problems in Dragon 2 itself. The explosion, whilst annoying, shouldn't have affected any of the Dragon 2 development critical paths. If anything it probably allowed more time on Dragon 2 during the investigation.

    From what I understand, SpaceX have a fundamental set of problems with several components of the Dragon 2 craft and it's associated hardware. There are ongoing issues with stress fractures in the SuperDraco engines, along with crack issues in the tube used to dock and transfer items between it and the ISS. There have also been issues, apparently (source /r/SpaceX), with the SpaceX spacesuits currently under development. We know NASA have been kicking up a fuss with the whole "put astronauts on board the rocket first and then fuel" for months now, and the September event undoubtedly ruffled the feathers further in regards to that, but at the end of the day that's just a procedural hurdle to get over.

    NASA has also further contributed to delays with Dragon 2 by insisting the first flights are splashdowns rather than using the SuperDraco assisted propulsive landing it was originally designed to do, that alone required an extensive redesign of many parts of the craft.

    At the end of the day, schedules slip and there are problems, that's just how things are. I'd be interested to know how this is going to impact the Red Dragon mars mission currently scheduled for 2018 Mars synod though.

    1. bazza Silver badge

      Re: Actually less about the Amosposion I think.

      Interesting stuff.

      I had no idea they were designing new space suits. I'm somewhat mystified as to why existing designs aren't acceptable. Do you suppose it's simply a matter of IPR ownership?

      1. phuzz Silver badge

        Re: Actually less about the Amosposion I think.

        As far as I know, the only current spacesuits that NASA have are their EVA suits, which are large and bulky.

        What they need is something like the Sokol suits that the 'nauts wear when riding in a Soyuz. They're known as an IVA or rescue suit, and they're smaller and lighter than an EVA because it's really just designed to keep the air in during an emergency.

        I'm not sure why NASA doesn't want to use the ACE suit that was used on the shuttle, but it looks to have been retired now.

        1. James Hughes 1

          Re: Actually less about the Amosposion I think.

          @asphytxtc

          Have you got any citation for that list of issues, because I have been keeping a pretty close eye on this stuff and nothing in your posts I have seen before. In fact one particular point is I believe incorrect; the redesign for parachutes for non-propulsive landings isn't right since the capsule has parachutes anyway in case the Draco's fail to light up.

          edit: except the bit about NASA worrying about putting astronauts on a unfueled rocket then filling it.

          1. asphytxtc

            Re: Actually less about the Amosposion I think.

            I do indeed, NASA's Sep. 1 CCtCap report (https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-028.pdf)

            Some cited statements...

            "SpaceX officials attributed the delays to capsule design challenges, specifically switching from a design that used a ground-based landing to a water-based landing design in the first year after contract award. This resulted in significant challenges, including complications with vendor components and the effectiveness of the integrated landing system designed to ensure parachutes work and the capsule does not take on excessive water after landing in the ocean. In addition, SpaceX stated it had underestimated the number of interfaces to the weldment and radial bulkheads, which also resulted in design delays."

            "NASA Program officials anticipate SpaceX will encounter additional delays on the path to certification. For example, in January 2015, the tunnel that provides a passageway for astronauts and cargo between the Dragon and the ISS was reported to have cracked during the heat treatment phase of the manufacturing process. As a result, SpaceX delayed qualification testing by approximately one year to better align the tests as SpaceX moves toward certification."

            "SpaceX has also experienced ongoing issues with stress fractures in turbopumps that must be resolved prior to flight."

            "Additionally, SpaceX has not yet completed parachute system level testing which may reveal issues that would require redesign that could further delay the test flights."

            And the final killer, with no mention of AMOS-6...

            "Accordingly, we anticipate additional schedule slippage and do not expect certified flights by SpaceX earlier than late 2018."

            With regards to the spacesuit issues, the only thing I can (quickly) find a mention of is in the following WSL article (http://www.wsj.com/articles/spacex-has-delayed-first-manned-nasa-launch-to-2018-from-2017-1481581294 - paywalled).

            "At SpaceX, over the years those challenges have ranged from problems with space suits to onboard life-support systems to leaks involving unmanned Dragon capsules that returned and splashed down, as planned, in water."

            My information on that might be somewhat out of date however, it was quite a while ago ^.^

            HTH

            1. This post has been deleted by its author

    2. imanidiot Silver badge

      Re: Actually less about the Amosposion I think.

      Also likely is that SpaceX simply needs the full production capacity to keep clients happy before they can "spare" one for the manned dragon tests.

    3. Charlie Clark Silver badge

      Re: Actually less about the Amosposion I think.

      Whoever said rocket science isn't hard?

      While admire a lot of what Musk does, there is often an undertone that the existing way of doing things is all wrong. Yes, NASA (but even more so DARPA) is a nice source of big, fat cost-plus contracts for the industry, but they still have an enviable record for getting stuff done. Especially the stuff no one has done before.

      As for launch records: Space X still has a long way to go to match Ariane but it's good that they're trying and we're all learning new things.

  3. defiler

    Corporate liability?

    I suspect there's a lot of (justifiable) health & safety going on here.

    It's one thing to start shoving humans onto the top of an occasionally-exploding missile when you're a government, they're military, and you've got a cold war going on; and another completely when you're a company, they're civilians, and it's a product development flight.

    Well, not really, but legally. I'm sure the poor sod in the can feels much the same either way.

  4. Spudley

    Elon Musk's SpaceX has delayed the first manned launch of its Dragon capsule intended to carry astronauts into orbit by one year. [...] The first launch was originally scheduled for 2017, but is now due for Spring 2018.

    I may be wrong, but I was under the impression that the previous schedule had it quite late in 2017, so it doesn't represent a one year slip; just the fact that the slip has moved it into the following year. More like half a year.

  5. Alistair
    Windows

    delay human occupied launch

    A) Spudley I believe you have it right, I do seem to recall that Q3 2016 was the last target.

    B) putting humans in orbit is messy. And NASA of any organization knows this. Someone *somewhere* in NASA learned a lesson or two about O-rings.

    C) SpaceX appears to have a team running things on the Dragon project that really, seriously G.A.S about what they're doing.

    D) I rather suspect that if they get dragon all polished up and looking spiffy designed to land on solid ground with its rockets, and the day comes when it blows extra juice on the way in, having had it tested in water landings will make folks happier than gambling on it not sinking like a rock when it has to land in mid pacific.

  6. Gene Cash Silver badge
    Unhappy

    Boeing is still even later

    Targeted Flight Dates:

    Boeing Orbital Flight Test: June 2018 (unmanned)

    Boeing Crew Flight Test: August 2018

    SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1: November 2017 (unmanned)

    SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2: May 2018

    https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2016/12/12/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-flight-dates/

    I am a sad panda.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Boeing is still even later

      Hopefully we're going to the see the Falcon 9 Heavy next year.

      And the SLS flies the year afterwards, presumably as long as Congress keeps shovelling money at it.

  7. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Alan Shepard or John Glenn?

    Can't find out the exact attribution but Alan Shepard is reported as saying

    "It's a very sobering feeling to be up in space and realise that one's safety factor was determined by the lowest bidder on a government contract."

    While John Glenn Obituary attributes it as

    "‘I felt exactly how you would feel if you were getting ready to launch and knew you were sitting on top of 2 million parts — all built by the lowest bidder on a government contract."

    I hope that George Santayana or Spock's quote of

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

    is foremost in SpaceX's collective mind.

    1. allthecoolshortnamesweretaken

      Re: Alan Shepard or John Glenn?

      John Glenn, in his autobiography:

      “I guess the question I'm asked the most often is: "When you were sitting in that capsule listening to the count-down, how did you feel?" Well, the answer to that one is easy. I felt exactly how you would feel if you were getting ready to launch and knew you were sitting on top of two million parts -- all built by the lowest bidder on a government contract.”

  8. Gene Cash Silver badge

    It's funny. I've seen dozens of stories like this one on how SpaceX's capsule is delayed, yet no one seems to give a sh*t that Boeing's is even later. I guess no one expects the Boeing capsule to actually fly?

    1. Mark 85

      I think that is more like this:

      1) Boeing's capsule is going to probably be delayed at extra expense to the taxpayers.

      2) No one gives a shit about Boeing.

    2. Charlie Clark Silver badge

      I don't think Boeing's going around boasting about how it's revolutionising the industry. Plus, and I don't know any details, doesn't Boeing have to produce something to satisfy the politicians? That usually means a whole heap of impossible requirements.

      Anyway, having multiple suppliers is important. Having Space X in there undoubtedly encourages the others to up their game. Who knows, it might even lead them to tell the politicians when their pipe dreams are impossible or at least financially ruinous.

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