Optimistic
Considering most IT managers are aghast at the amount of data windows 10 slurps and the fact that windows 7 matches their users expectations I think that this report is just wishful thinking.
The first six months of 2016 will see an upsurge in pilot rollouts of Windows 10, Gartner has predicted. Many enterprises will then broaden their deployments later in the year with Gartner expecting at least half to have started some form of production deployment by the beginning of 2017, and looking to complete migrations in …
Analysts couldn't predict 12:01 at 12 noon, much less anything meaningful. These are the same type of people who said "the PC is dead, tablets are the future!" Let me tell you all you need to do to be a paid analyst: take something that happened in the past, extrapolate to the future, profit.
It has nothing to do with IT managers, at least, not those on the Technical side.
We've (just) rolled out Win7 (and there's still problems), but the technical illiterate suit in charge of IT gotta new shiny Win10 tablet@home so now wants to roll out Win10@work, like tomorrow..There is no talking to the twat..he knows best, and has the power..
(Need I say, he has no IT qualifications, nor a IT background, but hey, he's a manager..)
'..I think that this report is just wishful thinking.'
I'd caution dismissing it as just that, 'If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it...'
Surely if Microsoft actively find ways to get around a user blocking them from doing something then that is a cybercrime/computer sabotage/whatever.
If a user (or BOFH) takes measures to prevent MS from forcing updates, but MS find a way around this, then that is sabotage. They have wilfully accessed a computer without permission. They have altered the computer's behaviour without permission.
Surely MS has enough lawyers giving them advice that this is illegal.
Psst, Charles, just between you and me, I suspect TRT had his tongue firmly in cheek when he said that.
Anyway, back to the topic. My theory is that Garner has spotted all the comments made by people prior to Windows 10's release, suggesting leaving it at least six months before upgrading, to allow other muppets to suffer any teething troubles. And/or they're taking into account the July 2016 deadline - with the update to Windows 10 being free for twelve months.
What Gartner haven't picked up on yet is all the people who suggested leaving it at least six months but who are now saying Microsoft can shove Windows 10 somewhere unpleasant. That's certainly what I'm saying, having had to go to extra efforts to not upgrade my system.
"And/or they're taking into account the July 2016 deadline - with the update to Windows 10 being free for twelve months.
I hope we are all reading "Windows 10 being free for twelve months" correctly. Every time someone says that I keep hearing it in my own head as, install now and Windows 10 is free for 12months...before you have to start paying a monthly subscription fee...
>.>
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"“There will be tens of millions of users familiar with the operating system before the end of 2015,” research vice president Steve Kleynhans said in a statement."
"Satya Nadella claimed in October that 110 million devices were running Windows 10."
So quite a lot of 'users' not familiar with Win10 at all then
I guess I don't pay enough attention to what's going on in the world : I read the whole article thinking that it was the understandable positive thinking from some Microsoft bod called Gartner.
I now realize that Gartner is a firm which specialises in providing advice to companies on technical matters.
So, definitely all hype and bullshit then.
"pent-up demand for tablets and two-in-one devices, will drive uptake."
Is there really "pent up demand" for tablets and 2in1s in Enterprise environments, or is it just a justification for their prediction? There doesn't seem to be any pent up demand that I'm aware of.
"Pent-up demand" makes no sense unless someone is applying a blocade. Same as "pent-up voltage". There either is demand or there isn't and both situations will influence pricing and goods actually offered. Seeing how tables are not flying off shelves, the pent-uppery is low indeed.
There is in relation to line-of-business applications used by some customer-facing staff who don't work at desks or could move away from a desk if they were able to carry their computer with them.
Things like field engineers who work at customer premises. Also sales staff who could work out on the shop floor rather than a sales desk if they could carry their till / booking system with them.
In many cases though, this could be done on an iPhone or iPhone+ sized device, or at most an iPad mini or equivalent rather than a surface pro, and it doesn't particularly need to run Windows if all you have is a data entry form, some sort of information retrieval and maybe the need to print some things.
Those are really good examples but I cant see that they would specifically need Windows10, and that the demand would be "pent up", there are plenty of devices available now and for quite a while that would be suitable, like you say an ipad, iphone, android tablet or Windows tablet.
As they would be basic data entry/catalogue browsing devices, surely Windows 10 wouldn't make any kind of a difference.
The first six months of 2016 will see an upsurge in pilot rollouts of Windows 10, Gartner has predicted.
Many enterprises will then broaden their deployments later in the year with Gartner expecting at least half to have started some form of production deployment by the beginning of 2017, and looking to complete migrations in 2019.
That will help Windows 10 become Microsoft’s most widely deployed operating system, following in the footsteps of Windows 7 and Windows XP, Gartner said.
That may, or may not, be what Microsoft wants to hear. Windows XP and Windows 7 both became de facto client standards and getting customers to move onto succeeding versions of Microsoft's software has proved nigh impossible.
Microsoft’s declared goal is for Windows 10 to be on one billion devices in the next two to three years. Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella claimed in October that 110 million devices were running Windows 10.
Factors driving the uptake of Windows 10 on the consumer side are the free, 12-month upgrades, plus the availability of broadband connectivity for devices, making over-the-air downloads a reasonable feat to perform.
According to Gartner, factors driving migrations include the planned end of support for Windows 7 in January 2020 plus strong application compatibly with Windows 10. That, plus pent-up demand for tablets and two-in-one devices, will drive uptake.
“There will be tens of millions of users familiar with the operating system before the end of 2015,” research vice president Steve Kleynhans said in a statement.
“For businesses, we expect that implementation will be significantly more rapid than that seen with Windows 7 six years ago,” he added.
Windows 10 was released by Microsoft in July; as far as receiving free Windows 10 is concerned, complaints have emerged among some Windows 7 and 8 users that rather than the upgrade being voluntary Windows 10 is forcing itself onto their PCs. ®
*Due to marketing factors, customer take-up and the unfortunate habit of Microsoft to stack Bullshit so high it becomes a danger to anyone passing their steaming pile of crap these predictions may have to be reconsidered*
fixed it for you.
(Couldn't find a pile of crap icon, perhaps El Reg should consider another icon update).
well in 3-5 years this might happen (sadly)
The general concensus in this place that is it [redacted].
There are some fans but auond here they are in the minority.
From my experience this reluctance to use it is being reflected amongst the non IT gurus.
Many are gonna stay with Win 7 after reluctantly upgrading from XP in the last year or so.
Others have gone or are going to the dark side (Apple).
A good few have seen W10 and don't want a tablet/phone UI on their desktop. Full screen everything is also loathed especially those with 24in+ screens.
Running it on a 4k screen needs sunglasses.
However us commentards are the exception rather than the rule.
Many average users will go into places like PC-World and get sold a pup but they won't know it.
In conclusion, Gartner will probably be right but what next for MS?
Is that it?
Is that the UI that they are gonna plug for ever?
I really hope not.
Companies will stick with Win7, or even XP, or even use Linux or OS X, or use more browser based stuff and only run Accounts on Windows ...
But lots of companies are foolishly outsourcing. What will the Indians, Mexicans etc be using?
Win 10 makes little sense for consumer and none for business.
Look at it this way -- with the exception of the new UI, crazy mandatory update position, and the data slurping, Windows 10 is a Windows 7 work-alike under the hood for _most_ enterprisey situation. Win32 still works just fine, .NET is still in place, etc. It's even more of a Windows 8.1 work-alike -- it could have been 8.1 SP2.
I think the adoption rate in businesses will jump significantly, when Microsoft backs down on its data collection position. Until absolutely every telemetry feature can be disabled, you won't satisfy some companies. Windows 10 Enterprise LTSB already comes with most of the phone-style features like Cortana and the built-in apps stripped out due to the inability to constantly update them. That's a good start, but it isn't the answer for everyone. Regular business SKUs of Windows need that same kind of "anti-feature." Even if you have to use tons of group policy to shut it off, I feel that Windows users need the ability to jump off the update train and use the OS as a one-off like Windows 7 or 8.
Well.. that data slurp is big one here in the States for health insurance companies and providers. HIPAA demands privacy for patient/customer data with hefty fines for violating it. As this is some unknown territory for the health care industry, I don't see them running to embrace Win10 anytime soon. The reports I'm getting from the higher ups (health insurance company) is to the effect of "over our dead bodies" because of the slurps. No one wants the fines or bad press from this.
I am reasonably sure that with some targeted lobbying, MS can get Congress to amend the act to allow slurping for a better "user experience".
All it needs is for a new patch [1] to intricude a new slurp because MS thinks that far too many users are blocking their slurp to be deployed into a HIPAA site and bang.
The Febs come in and fine the HIPAA company yet MS will probably get off scott free.
Hardly seems fair does it eh?
[1] many of will have a bitt taste in their mouths when they recall some of the botched patches that MS has put out. They will have to significanlty improve the quality of their patches if they are gonna succeed in this 'pushing' of patches to all the W10 users. If not... then they'd better have a lot of very, very good lawyers on speed dial.
"That will help Windows 10 become Microsoft’s most widely deployed operating system, following in the footsteps of Windows 7 and Windows XP, Gartner said."
Sure, and holding a gun to user's heads is also a very persuasive technique too. Unfortunately, it has a side effect of pissing people off. However, if you're the type that needs to force-feed your products, you don't really care about that anymore do you? Do you Microsoft?
I got a Sony Vaio laptop for my 8-year-old kid, with Windows 8. It got upgraded to 8.1 But then... it was also badly infected. So I did the system restore. This brought me back to 8, and required about a zillion hours of upgrades to 8.1. Now Windows 10 is coming out, and my child's Firefox was hopelessly compromised with multiple bogus root certificates. I can see where this one is going... I'll have to do system restore back to 8, then about two zillion hours of upgrades to 10. Not my idea of fun.
Instead, I installed Ubuntu for my child. It is 100% better in every way. Faster, easier to use, better mouse tracking, more responsive, fewer bloatware pop-ups. She's actually able to go to her school website and concentrate on the math problems at hand. This was a clear win. We will never look back.
The singles biggest thing MS could do to keep customers on Windows is to enable an easy System Restore back to the latest version of Windows that came installed on the computer, rather than the original version it was purchased with. Stop wasting our time!
if you don't want to sound like a bunch of mindless sheep, mechanically repeating the same "witty" slogans, maybe a vocabulary expansion is in order? Just a thought...
Also, if Gartner predicted a stratospheric rise in the number of Linux desktop deployments - finally smashing through the dizzying heights of the 2% ceiling, you would be all a-gush and holding this aloft as proof that the year of Linux is finally upon us :-)
Currently my W7 is not limited to any hardware as I have a retail copy.
However when I do upgrade my W10 copy will be limited to CPU/Motherboard combo.
Therefore before I can even consider upgrading to W10 I have to find the money to upgrade my hardware otherwise I have to fork out for another copy of W10 - or just "waste" this "free" W10 install on old hardware.
For anyone who has a machine coming towards the end of it's life cycle there is no real material benefit in getting a "free" W10 as you'll have to pay whenever you upgrade your machine.
We just finished our Win7 roll-out last year as have most of our clients. Given the sector of work I'm in, it was stick and carrot to get that much. Since a number of secured systems can't be left in the hands of some dude in Redmond to decide whether or not an update should be applied, rolled back or whatever, these top companies aren't _EVER_ going to update to Win10 until MS's enterprise policies account for autonomous secured systems without 50 admins hawking every undisclosed update. Plus side for me is that a number of client companies are seriously considering Redhat Enterprise as the next major update (in 5 or so years)
Like the corner furniture store that has been holding a "going out of business inventory clearance sale" for the last 20 years, this limited time offer is just marketing fantasy to get people to take action. As the end approaches it will be extended, then quietly eliminated in a magnanimous gesture of goodwill. And then people will be paid to come here and laud the generosity, elevating it with comparisons to Jonas Salk and Norman Borlaug.
Like most of you, I was sceptical and refused to install it (OK, I tried it twice and reverted back. But MS have just released a massive update (actually two of them) and this time, I think they've got it right. Now, I'm not saying it's better than 8.1 (it is better than 7) but there are few things I like about 10 that means I will be keeping it.
So, maybe when the word gets around that the update(s) make it useable and OK, then businesses will consider it. Will it happen in the next 6 months? Maybe.
Alan
"then businesses will consider it."
Not in mine mate. Oh bugger, the kiddies have already installed it on "their" machines. Never mind, nearly all our servers run Linux or FreeBSD now so the damage is limited and decreasing as we gradually remove reliance on the beast from Redmond and attendant minions. Sage and Co are due to die in January. Another one nearly down. Once they are all gone, the desktops and laptops are next.
After trials, I'd recommend 10 to all uninterested cousins if, and only if, there were a one-click option to make the desktop look exactly like their old 7 (or XP). Sure I can do that with a long session on Teamviewer, but it's not my idea of family fun. (Anyway, they've all got a Linux Mint boot disk now, in case of disasters).
With only my navel to guide me, I predict an upsurge in W10 adoption starting mid to late 2016. This will be due people replacing old kit. This uptick will likely drop back done to more leisurely rate by early 2017. Enterprise users will hold off for at least 2 years and may start rolling out W10 in 2018. The primary reasons for this are software and hardware compatibility issues coupled with concerns about data integrity. In 2020 my guess is the total install base for W10 will be 700 million installs of all types.
Until MS has a fully polished ̶t̶u̶r̶d̶ OS that doesn't require large updates, I, and my clients will not be upgrading on any day to day machines. The other weekend my lad installed threshold 2 and discovered his machine was almost stock. apps and other things had gone awaol. Imagine if that happens in a business. Hello IT, nothing's installed on my computer, it was there on Friday.
Don't get me wrong, i'm not a fully signed up hater, I have W10 on a laptop and there are a few things I find easier, something things I wonder 'why', and others well, classic shell sorts out.
Fact is, we have got to get used to it because MS thinks the interface of the future is tablet shaped (rounded corners are optional)
I've been working in IT since the middle 60's (yes that long ago) in that time I've watched Microsoft go forwards and backwards...
with Windows 10 I think they've left their senses behind somewhere and have taken up the mantra "You will do as you're told" .. sorry Microsoft I dislike windows 10, it's a bit of a hotch-potch, Win 7 was very good if somewhat fussy, XP was also good as was 95, others? well let's gloss over them. I will not be enticed, forced or coerced into using windows 10 on my main machines and will continue to play with it on an old laptop until you start listening to people and making it 'basically' less complicated for newbies to use. Oh and before any of you young whippersnapper know-it-all's pop in two pennyworth of you ideas just remember I'm talking from an experienced and long tested Microsoft user situation. I just want my computers to continue doing things in the fashion of XP and Win7 without constant updates; whether I want them or not - without having to turn things on and off to counter Microsoft's dictatorial attitude; so save your breathe about me being of advanced years. At present Microsoft is force feeding people with a 'dog' program system - with more fleas in it than my old dog.
@oldman42 - Slurp is trying to hip with a very boring product line. OSes, office suites, programming tools, and databases are not sexy, must have products to cool and hip. They primarily products to get some work done. Slurp has forgotten, as many have before, the key to organizational integrity is not being hip or cool but being true to core products and customers. Many oldtimers, I remember punch cards with FORTRAN IV, have learned there are good reasons for WIMP interface on a computer and human anatomy has not changed since then.
Slurp also fails to understand the hipsters and cool cats are extremely fickle. Something may be hot right now but for now discernible reason passe in 6 months. Being somewhat boring and predictable can be huge advantage, consumers know what you are about. It's called branding, something Slurp fails to understand.
Microsoft recently backtracked and removed the November 2015 fresh install ISO from their website and rolled back the Media Creation Tool so that it will only create RTM July 2015 ISOs. Imo that is the most stupid move ever. Their explaination is that from now on these upgrades will only be deployed via Windows Update.
When I upgraded to the November 2015 update via Windows Update, it initially gave me issues to no end. Not only did it take all night to install, it left me with a unusable system, which BSODs anytime I tried to start a program, gave me a never-ending stream of "missing msvc100.dll" errors, and hosed AMD QuickStream as a whole (kept saying something about the license key being invalid, despite there being no license key to input at all). And oh, it got rid of my antimalware program, SpyBot-SD, for no reason. I fresh-installed via the ISO and the problems never surfaced, suggesting a major flaw with Windows 10's upgrade procedure.
I'd be readying the popcorn for the next upgrade which is said to be planned for next July. With all those BSODing and no way to do a fresh install, Microsoft will be setting themselves up for the biggest barbecue in history. Sadly, my laptop will again be among those affected, but I figured I can go to Linux when that happens.
I had some Windows only software i needed to use this week, since we are almost a 100% Mac & iPad place now i've not really looked at Windows 10 (Windows 8 was what really made us jump platform, had been Windows since the 3.1 days)
So i installed Fusion for Mac to make a VM, and i thought lets download Windows 10 and give it a whirl. The VM was deleted and Windows 7 installed after 2 hours of swearing at it. Windows 10 is horrendous and just as awful as Windows 8. Just the Settings/Control panel made me want to scream in anger!
Why is Microsoft getting the OS so badly wrong now? I use to like using Windows, Windows 2000 was so clean and uncluttered GUI wise, a pleasure to use. Windows XP you were able to make it look like Windows 2000, such as turn off that stupid category view in Control Panel and all that other silly dumb down the user interface stuff, Windows 7 whilst i still prefered the Windows 2000 GUI i could tolerate it and again could turn off that stupid category view in control panel, it had just a few annoyances like those Libraries.
I'm not a Microsoft basher, where they do a decent job i will say. I love using Microsoft Onenote on my Mac/iPad/iPhone and still think Microsoft Office is the best/most rich Office suite out there. I'm just so glad the Mac platform is a viable alternative now compared to say 15 years ago, OS X is actually great to use compared to Windows latests offering, its clean and easy to navigate, something Microsoft don't seem to understand now.
Im going to guess Enterprise will cling on to Windows 7 like they did XP and not start these large scale Windows 10 deployments as the article suggests. By the time Windows 7 support ends in 2020 the whole IT landscape might be a very different place.